The Shuffle Up series rolls on. Today we’re going to hit the tight ends. This position was a fantasy wasteland for the first few weeks, but production peaked in week 8 (ah, the Hallmark holiday) and things have been back to normal since then.
Levels for the rest of the season: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs
I would never want to eliminate the tight end position from fantasy leagues. It’s just another opportunity for us to hopefully make better choices than our opponents.
The salaries are unscientific and meant to illustrate where I see value. Everything up to this point has been an audition; I rank and arrange them as if I were now drafting from scratch. Remember the golden rule: no player gains or loses extra value because you choose to bet him.
The big ticket items
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$34 George Kittel
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$30 Travis Kelce
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$28 Brock Bowers
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$26 Trey McBride
The 49ers rank just 28th in red zone percentage (touchdowns per trip), but Kittle is part of the answer there. He has seen 13 red zone targets and caught 12 for six touchdowns. And Kittle is still as dynamic a downfield threat as any tight end, with a career-best eight catches for 20 yards. He is very close to earning a spot in the Hall of Fame when he eventually retires.
It’s a shame Bowers doesn’t have a plus quarterback to push him to the top of the position. He has compiled the most YAC among tight ends, yet his YPC is a regular 10.2, a statement that is more about his support cast than Bowers as a player. The Raiders just fired their play-caller, but with the limited quarterback talent here, Bowers can’t fully spread his wings.
McBride is doing fine in terms of volume, but with just three touchdowns (and none this year) through 41 career games and 33 starts, we have to view him as a maximum opportunity player. Kyler Murray hasn’t been consistent this year and the Cardinals rank 26th in passing percentage above expectations.
Legitimate building blocks
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$23 Cade Oton
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$22 Evan Engram
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$22 David Njoku
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$21 Kyle Pitts
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$21 Tucker Kraft Paper
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$16 Sam LaPorta
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$15, Mark Andrews
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$13 Jake Ferguson
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$11 Dalton Kincaid
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$10 Taysom Hill
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$10 TJ Hockenson
The term “league winner” is probably overused in fantasy circles, but at least call Otton a league winnertilter. He has been the TE5, TE1 and TE2 for the past three weeks, coinciding with the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He has five targets inside the five-yard line, at the top between the tight ends. He has had a 24.6% market share over the past two weeks, trailing only Travis Kelce (a whopping 29.4%) over that period. Baker Mayfield has struggled to find secondary receivers he can trust, but Otton’s role isn’t going away.
Kraft will always have to compete for targets in a loaded Green Bay receiver room, but he’s doing two exciting things to keep his fantasy value afloat. The first is red zone equity, where Kraft already has nine targets, four catches and four touchdowns (only Kittle has more). But the Packers also know how to plan for Kraft in space; he ranks fourth in YPC in the poison, and his YAC per catch is the best among tight ends. Matt LaFleur knows how to put his players in a position to excel.
Hill definitely doesn’t have any weekly depth, but he’s probably the best goal line prospect in New Orleans and this is a team desperate for offensive help after Alvin Kamara. A healthy Hill is an interesting sleeper in any week.
A plausible advantage
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$8 Dallas Goedert
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$8 Hunter Henry
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$8 Cole Kmet
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$7 Mike Gesicki
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$6 Zach Ertz
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$6 Pat Freiermuth
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$5, Jonnu Smith
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$5 Dalton Schultz
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$4 Isaiah Probably
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$3. Tyler Conklin
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$3Theo Johnson
Johnson has flashed some as a rookie and is coming off his best yardage game of the year, but he has also left some plays on the table. He has a position-high of four drops per year.
Say this for Conklin, the Jets have tried to get him involved. He has run 265 routes, tops at the position. But Conklin is neither a downfield mover (just 9.2 YPC) nor an intermediate route runner (average target depth 5.24). He always worked with a limited range, and now that we have Davante Adams in town, we can no longer count on goal-line parity.
He’s likely just a stash-and-hope player, someone who could peak if Andrews gets hurt but won’t have any standalone value without it. The acquisition of Diontae Johnson also spreads Baltimore’s target tree even wider.
Bargain bin
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$2 Juwan Johnson
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Ja’Tavion Sanders from $2
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$1 Noah Fant
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$1 Colby Parkinson
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$1 Will Dissly
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$1 Chig Okonkwo
This article used data from TruMedia, Fantasy Points and Pro Football Reference.
