We’re in the middle of October, which means it’s time to kick off the Shuffle Up series. What has happened so far is just an audition. The ranks and levels you’ll find below are what I would use if I were entering a new fantasy football draft from now on (and yes, there is still time to draft a new Yahoo Fantasy football league).
The salaries are unscientific and intended as a tool to show where the talent is concentrated. Players with the same salary are considered equal. Remember the golden rule: no player gains (or loses) extra value simply because you roster him.
Players who are currently injured will receive their own provisional rank at the bottom. They are not for debate. Everyone has their own ideas about injuries and comebacks.
The large-scale shuffle was already in the content budget to begin with, but becomes more topical with Davante Adams and Amari Cooper’s trades this week. Fantasy managers should be excited about these deals, as Adams and Cooper were involved in can’t-win violations a week ago. The Raiders obviously don’t have a legitimate quarterback. The Browns are stuck with Deshaun Watson’s terrible contract.
Adams shouldn’t have a difficult introduction in New York given his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers. I think Garrett Wilson is a high-end WR2 forward, and Adams is more of a mid-range WR2 but can be started any healthy week. Cooper will need to be aware of the Buffalo offense, but given how mediocre the wideout play has been there, the Bills have every reason to move quickly on their newest player. We should also acknowledge that Cooper was traded midway through the 2018 season and quickly ramped up his production in Dallas. The shuffle-up considers Cooper on the WR2/WR3 line for now.
Level 1: The big ticket items
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$44 Ja’Marr Chase
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$43 Justin Jefferson
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$41 CeeDee Lamb
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$40 Amon-Ra St. Brown
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$38 Malik Nabers
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$37 AJ Brown
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$36 Tyreek Hill
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$34 Deebo Samuel Sr.
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$34 Chris Godwin
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$33 Mike Evans
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$32 Jayden Reed
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$31 Drake London
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$31 DK Metcalf
Life is good for Chase executives, but you still feel like there’s some meat left on the bone. After all, Chase is the WR1 in all scoring formats, but he ranks only 20th in wide targets (and the Bengals haven’t had a bye yet). Joe Burrow has a 138.5 rating when targeting Chase, for crying out loud. Push your easy button, Cincinnati.
It was around this time last year (right after the bye) when the Cowboys threw their game plan in the trash and basically started throwing to Lamb at an absurd rate. He had nine or more targets in each of his last eleven starts, which amounts to a silly 88-1186-9 line over that span. Well, we’re back again – a bye week in Dallas with yet another embarrassing home loss. Lamb got a slow push after the long summer, but I expect him to feast the rest of the way.
Do the Packers have too many good players? Jayden Reed has reached 10 targets just once, and this year he has scored a modest 34 times in six starts. That said, the Matt LaFleur scheme always uses a lot of Reed in scoring areas, and he also gets one or two rushes per game. He’s basically the Green Bay version of Deebo Samuel. Feature or bug? I’d like to see that as a feature.
Godwin is slightly favored over Evans as a return to the slot has boosted his production. Often these routes are easier to win, and the throws are faster and clearer. Godwin has always offered upside, but he’s also building a solid floor, with five or more catches in every game. The schedule is getting tougher, but Baker Mayfield has played well and the Tampa Bay passing game has limited focus.
Level 2: Legitimate building blocks
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$29 DeVonta Smith
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$27 Brandon Aiyuk
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Garrett Wilson from $27
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$27, Terry McLaurin
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$26 Marvin Harrison Jr.
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$26 Stefon Diggs
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$25 Diontae Johnson
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$25 Zay Flowers
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$24 DJ Moore
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$23 Higgins tee
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$22 Davante Adams
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$22 Brian Thomas Jr.
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$22 George Pickens
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Jameson Williams from $20
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$20 Jaylen Waddle
Smith is always going to play Robin to Brown’s Batman, but Jalen Hurts isn’t getting as much goal line work this year, and the Passage game in Philadelphia only has these two primary options; TE Dallas Goedert is inconsistent (and dealing with a hamstring injury), and the rest of the wide receiver room is shockingly thin. Smith may never be a true WR1, but he’s as easy a weekly WR2 punch as you’ll find.
The Steelers have found a way to win four games with Justin Fields, even though he only throws for 184 yards per game and makes some big mistakes every week; a terrible Week 6 pick was negated by a questionable personal foul. Pickens is a fickle guy, and Arthur Smith’s game-calling is destined to set us on fire, but Pickens wins so consistently on deep routes, and he’s one of those players who can make you weak with just one splash -play, regardless of who is playing. QB. I can’t let go of his theoretical advantage.
Johnson’s rank is admittedly a hedge; he could be in the above tier if Andy Dalton were locked up to start the full season, but things could quickly collapse if (and when) Bryce Young returns; at some point, the non-contending Panthers will likely have to try Young again. Johnson ranked outside the top 70 – just absurd – for the two Young starts this year, using a PPR score of half a point. Since then he’s ranked pretty well: WR6, WR9, WR60, WR12.
Level 3: Talk them up, talk them down
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$19, Amari Cooper
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Tank-Dell from $17
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$17, Darnell Mooney
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$14 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
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$12 Xavier Worthy
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$12 Josh Downs
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$11 Christian Watson
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$11 Christian Kirk
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$11 Jordan Addison
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$11 Calvin Ridley
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$11Michael Pittman Jr.
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$11 Courtland Sutton
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$11 JuJu Smith-Schuster
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$10 Wan’Dale Robinson
Robinson averages just 4.8 yards per target despite a solid 63.8% catch rate, which shows just how horizontal New York’s passing game is. The key to the Robinson roster is having a league with a PPR or half-PPR component; he has five catches or more in five starts, but he’ll be around 40-60 yards most weeks – a useful depth piece, albeit a player with a capped upside.
Ridley posted a historic bagel last weekcatchless on eight chances. It’s a shared failure because he had a problem with drops, but Will Levi’s passes are so often off target. The best thing I can say about Ridley right now: I prefer him to DeAndre Hopkins.
JuJu Smith-Schuster’s roster tag didn’t peak a week ago because the Chiefs had a bye, perhaps a mistake by the fantasy crowd. He’s capable of being Rashee Rice-light, and Kansas City’s game plan went into overtime in Week 5, with JuJu finding easy routes to win with. He is the odds-on favorite to be the team’s most targeted player until further notice.
Mooney has a high target and a quick share in an offense that is terribly focused, and Kirk Cousins has completely shaken off the rust. Mooney is stuck with capped upside given his teammates, but his bottom is higher than the market would recognize.
Level 4: A plausible advantage
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$9 Ladd McConkey
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$9 Jakobi Meyers
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Khalil Shakir $8
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$8 Rome Odunze
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$8 DeAndre Hopkins
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Romeo Doubs $8
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$8 Jerry Jeudy
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$8 Tyler Lockett
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$7 Keenan Allen
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$7 Xavier Legette
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$7 Jalen Tolbert
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$7 DeMario Douglas
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$7 Alec Pierce
Pierce leads all receivers in yards per target, but Michael Pittman Jr. is back, as is Anthony Richardson. The Colts are doing the right thing with Richardson — you have to develop the future of your franchise — but everyone in this receiver room is much easier to start with Joe Flacco under center, who has quietly had double-digit touchdown passes in his last eight games (20 about that route).
Jeudy is now the presumptive No. 1 wideout in Cleveland, but as long as it’s Deshaun Watson’s show, do we really care? Ping me if and when they ever try a new quarterback. It may take an injury or a public outburst for the Browns to be fully motivated to make a move.
Shakir was always a player with a solid floor and a low lead, and now Cooper is in town to target. At his peak he was a WR3, but now he’s closer to WR5.
Douglas has become a quiet source of volume in New England, and Drake Maye’s debut had more good moments than bad. Maybe he can be New England’s poor man’s version of Wan’Dale Robinson.
Level 5: Bargain bin
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$6 Michael Wilson
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$6 Allen Lazard
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$5 Keon Coleman
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$5 Quentin Johnston
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$4 Bub Resources
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$4 Juan Jennings
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$4 Tre Tucker
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$4 Rashod Bateman
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$4 Ja’Lynn Polk
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$3 Gabe Davis
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$3 Jordan Whittington
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$3 Demarcus Robinson
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$3 Darius Slayton
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$3 Tutu Atwell
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$2 Joshua Palmer
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$2 Greg Dortch
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$2 Adonai Mitchell
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$2 Ray Ray McCloud III
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$2 Noah Brown
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$2 Jalen Nailor
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$1 Mike Williams
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$1 Andrej Iosivas
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$1 Luke McCaffrey
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$1 Jalen McMillan
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$1 Curtis Samuel
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$1 Ricky Pearsall
I still expect Lazard to retain some fantasy value, even with the new buzz in the Jets’ receiver room. He’s scored in four different weeks and has about as much Rodgers time as Adams. Mike Williams seems like the odd one out.
Assets were helpful in Spencer Rattler’s first start, and now New Orleans’ two top receivers are hurt. Means won’t sneak up on any defense anymore, but he will lead this team in goal share for a week or two. As always, we probably want to chase volume.
Typically, contingent value picks are centered around running backs, but Jennings carries over that theme as well, a player I would confidently start if something were to happen to Samuel or Aiyuk.
If Whittington had enough targets to qualify, he would top the success rate list among wide receivers, according to Pro Football Reference. He is a preferred streamer until the Rams get their primary options back.
Provisional injury rankings – Not up for discussion
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$26 Cooper Kupp
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$25 Nico Collins
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$24 Puka Nacua
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$19 Chris Olave
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$14 Rashid Shaheed
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$5 Dontayvion wicks
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$3 Brandin cooks
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$2 Elijah Moore
