Fantasy Football Storylines to Watch in Week 4: Rachaad White Has a Bucky Irving Problem

Sean McVay’s reaction to the Rams’ win will also apply to the rest of Week 3.

Even when we think we know what’s going to happen, the players give us something different. It’s part of the reason we’re analyzing and playing this game. Our data points and conclusions can be a guide. And yet, every Sunday at kickoff, there’s a new set of information. We need to consider more context.

I’ll likely be reviewing all of the storylines from last week through next Sunday morning. But to get you ready for Week 4, let’s dive into the biggest talking points coming out of the latest round of NFL action.

New defensive coverages? No problem — bring in new receivers!

The shift in defensive play-calling has shaken offenses. On the non-serious side of things, analysts are calling for a rule change to give the power back to offenses. Meanwhile, in reality, only one of the QBs drafted this year has thrown for more than 300 yards in a single game.

I agree there is a talent gap, but the problem goes (far) beyond what a defense is asking of them to cover. But while quarterback development (or lack thereof) is the headline for the top 12 QBs, at least one of the top 12 WRs appears to have it figured out.

Through three weeks, Malik Nabers has earned the highest target and air yard share of any rookie WR since 2000. Opportunity isn’t a problem here. But Daniel Jones throwing him the ball (at least) seems to be one.

Take any accuracy metric you like (adjusted completion percentage, CPOE), and you’ll find Jones in the bottom half. However, for all the faults of HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka, finding ways to get their first-round pick the ball isn’t one of them.

Nabers’ roadmap from week 2 highlights part of the problem with trying to pin down his usage. He’s everywhere.

His first five routes in Week 3 included two Hitches (for five air yards), a Go (28), an Out (for a TD) and a Slant. Even better, Jones’ 68.0% catchable target rate with Nabers, per SportsInfoSolutions, is the highest among the Giants WRs.

At this point, my only concern is whether Nabers can convince the Giants’ management to keep Jones beyond his current contract.

Confusion in the backfield for the Bucs

Rachaad White would make an excellent used car salesman. Just look at the 2023 workhorse he sold to most of you this year for the cool price of a third-round draft pick.

• All-Purpose Yards: 1,539 (fourth most)

• Goals: 70 (ninth most)

• Total TDs: 9 (T-11th-most)

Those are tough numbers to beat. After averaging 15.8 PPR PPG, I can see why people didn’t blink twice at an early round sticker price. But anyone who looked under the hood knew something was up.

Granted, these advanced stats don’t correlate strongly with fantasy production. The nerd in me hates it, that’s true. However, having the fourth-most runs of a yard or less on early downs, resulting in your team having the 12th-most yards to go in obvious passing situations, requires no analysis whatsoever. That’s not good! It’s probably no coincidence that White had the second-most carries in the league last year and still didn’t reach 1,000 yards on the ground.

It’s no surprise that nothing has changed in the last three weeks of this season. Like Michael Bluth, I don’t know what I expected. Tampa has made positive adjustments to the offensive line, and you can still find White near the bottom of every ranking.

What’s worse is that he now has legitimate competition for the ball.

Pick a rushing stat, and Bucky Irving figures to be the better option. At 20 lbs. lighter, the Oregon product has moved the chains at a higher rate (20.0% to 6.5% first down per rush rate) while matching White on explosive plays. Even HC Todd Bowles acknowledged the need to give Irving more reps.

But a switch or longer split for the rookie isn’t just about fantasy. Tampa averaged its lowest yards per play on early downs against Denver (4.6). Correspondingly, Baker Mayfield’s passing success rate in obvious passing situations fell from 46.2% in W1 to 33.3% against the Broncos. Irving should be a top priority for waiver add for Week 4, but his productivity should also raise the floor for the rest of the offense.

Keep on stomping, Andy Dalton

Okay, let’s get right to Andy Dalton’s superlatives.

• With an EPA of 0.24 per play, Dalton ranks first among all QB performances since Carolina drafted Bryce Young.

• Dalton tied for the team with the most passing scores in a single game since 2020 (3).

• Carolina’s total yardage in Week 3 (437) is the most since Week 16 of 2022.

Without a doubt, the Panthers’ move to the Red Rifle has shown them HC Dave Canales’ vision for offense. And remarkably, the change hasn’t just benefited one skill player.

Diontae Johnson would certainly be in sync with Dalton, given his route-running ability. The former Steeler had already earned 21.8 percent of Young’s targets. His WR1 role was unquestioned. With a more competent QB, however, Carolina’s passing game would take a big leap forward.

Like Baker Mayfield with Canales, Dalton attacked every level of the field. His 52.9% middle-of-the-field throw rate was a season high, along with his 10+ air yard attempts. Both allowed Dalton to put his receivers in positions to create. Every wideout (except Adam Thielen, who went out early) averaged more than six yards AFTER the catch. But it wasn’t just ball placement that kept the passing game alive.

Young buckled under pressure. His 33.3 percent adjusted completion percentage under duress ranked dead last among all starters. The Raiders tested the Panthers’ backup to see if he would respond in kind. Las Vegas blitzed 56.4 percent of Dalton’s dropbacks. He responded by completing over 70.0 percent of his passes for nine first downs. So adding Xavier Legette (who ran more routes and collected more air yards than Jonathan Mingo) makes sense for Week 4. But the running game got a boost, too.

At 36.0 yards per drive, Carolina ran more plays in the opponent’s red zone (14) than they had in their previous two games combined. Chuba Hubbard quickly found his way to the end zone. Hubbard will remain the play for now, but if you can bench Jonathon Brooks, he’ll get to work right away with Dalton under center.

No Tua. No Skylar. No hope?

Unfortunately, I don’t have a “confidence” stat to cite here. Either way, it’s one of the reasons the Dolphins’ offense performed so well with Tua Tagovailoa shooting the ball downfield. I realize these are unique plays, but they underscore my points.

If you pause at the six-second mark, you can see Tua halfway through his windup. Jaylen Waddle may be two steps ahead of the defender. Either way, they both know how the play is going to end. Waddle had his head turned after crossing the 24-yard line. It was a wrap. Now compare Tua’s anticipatory style to what we saw on Sunday:

Again, both clips are just snapshots. One from last season. But they give qualitative context to an actual stat.

You could feel the lag in decision-making on Sunday. Thompson certainly did. Boyle fared no better. Either way, you can see how something so nuanced could short-circuit one of the most efficient attacks in the league.

Their running game already ranks 31st in rushing EPA, as De’Von Achane trails only D’Andre Swift in rushing yards above expectations. And without a robot as a QB, the roster’s vulnerability becomes a bigger talking point.

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Despite praising Mike McDaniel as a top-tier play-caller like his former counterparts, the Dolphins don’t have extra TEs or receivers to transform into a run-first offense like the Packers did for Malik Willis. And they don’t have the reincarnation of Randy Moss as their WR3 like the 49ers.

Achane’s 18.3% target share (third most among RBs) and Tyreek’s explosive talent are the only pieces worth holding onto in this offense. Until Tua returns, see what value you can get in a trade for the rest.

Could Sam Darnold win the league in 2024? Definitely.

So I want to be fair when reviewing this version of Sam Darnold.

Yes, from 2018 to 2020, you’d be hard-pressed to find a worse QB. Mitch Trubisky posted higher CPOE, EPA per play, and passing success rate. And yet, Trubisky is hanging around in Buffalo, watching Josh Allen build his case for MVP while Darnold revives his career.

For the Darnold critics: I get it. We have 38 games of Darnold as the Jets’ starter, compared to a three-game sample size in 2024. Again, the nerd in me hates this. But look at what New York sent Darnold through in Week 1 of his final season in New York.

• RB: Frank Gore, Le’Veon Bell

• WR: Chris Hogan, Breshad Perriman, Jamison Cowder

• TE: Chris Herndon

So, sure. Darnold is not a talent elevator. He does have at least one player (for now) who is.

Justin Jefferson’s explosives and highlights will always capture our attention, but he has terrorized defenses all over the court.

Jefferson has the 10th-highest target rate from the slot, but only Chris Godwin and Rashee Rice have generated more yards from the inside. Jefferson is just as scary on the outside. He’s one of five wideouts with a YPRR above 2.5 from the perimeter (2.67). With KOC moving JJettas before the snap at the eighth-highest rate and having him connect with Darnold using play action on 28.6% of his targets (fourth-highest among WR1s), there’s little defenses can do to stop Darnold.

But it’s not just Minnesota’s passing game that “supports” Darnold. Their ground attack makes it easier, too.

Remember when I said that Miami’s inefficient running game would hurt their passing game without Tua? The Vikings have been the opposite. When they do choose to run on early downs, the combined efforts of Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler have averaged 4.8 yards per play (eighth-most). In turn, Minnesota’s 45.7% third-down conversion rate is third-highest in the league.

Is it possible that Darnold could turn back into a pumpkin or have a bad game? Sure. Derek Carr just reminded us that we need to use small samples. With this core around Darnold and help on the way, the advantage for Darnold as the winner of the competition isn’t as difficult as it sounds.