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As you navigate your starting sit decisions on Sunday and Monday, keep in mind that you will have more matchup information than usual. Four NFL games will be complete when we get to Sunday, which could help you break some fantasy ties as you decide whether the top or ground is more important to your final picks.
Here’s a traffic light report to help you.
✅ Green light
Ladd McConkey at Falcons
He caught all six of his goals against Baltimore, while Quentin Johnston went 0-for-5 and mixed in multiple drops. It’s shocking to me that McConkey hasn’t seen double-digit looks in any game, but this feels like the week the Chargers get their most reliable target. Justin Herbert will have plenty of time; the Atlanta pass rush does not exist.
RB Bucky Irving at Panthers
The crowded backfield in Tampa Bay makes you a little worried. Rachaad White will always play a role and even Sean Tucker scored last week, but Irving has the best assets of the group and he is becoming the key player. And the Panthers, as you know, are the dream fit for running backs in 2024. Start with Irving with confidence.
QB Matthew Stafford at Saints
He’s a lock these days for 250 yards and two touchdowns, with upside for more. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both healthy again, this is a passing game to hang your hat on.
TE Taysom Hill vs. Rams
Obviously he doesn’t offer depth, but that is not uncommon in tight end. But we know Hill is the most potent goal-line option the Saints have, and New Orleans’ offensive line has quietly returned to full health in recent weeks.
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🫤 Yellow light
RB Gus Edwards at Falcons
If you want some juicy YPC, look elsewhere. If you want catchy work, we can’t help you. But Edwards has goal-line parity, and I suspect a short score will push him to double-digit fantasy points this week.
QB Sam Darnold vs. Cardinals
The Arizona game is a little tougher than average, but Darnold has been more consistent than many realize. He has posted a QB rating above 100 in 9 of 11 starts, and he has multiple touchdown passes in eight games.
QB Russell Wilson at Bengals
I realize that Cincinnati is the NFL’s ultimate carnival team — they score a ton, they allow a ton — but Pittsburgh’s offensive identity rarely changes, regardless of the matchup. The Steelers want to run to set up the run, which means Wilson likely won’t get past 30 attempts no matter how the game goes. I suppose it’s playable in some places, but I’m not eager to get the ticket.
TE Zach Ertz vs. Titans
Normally I’d be lukewarm on a 34-year-old tight end who specializes in catch-and-fall, but with Austin Ekeler likely out, Ertz will be the first read when Jayden Daniels needs a short throw around the middle of the ball. field.
🛑 Red light
RB Nick Chubb at Broncos
Touchdown deodorant saved him in Week 12, but he has been a diminished runner all year, having yet to pass 60 yards on the ground. We talk a lot about Denver’s secondary, but the Broncos also have a top-five rushing defense.
RB Travis Etienne Jr. vs. Texans
Tank Bigsby is expected to muddy playing time again, and Houston’s defense ranks No. 2 in rushing DVOA. Anytime I can proactively avoid the 2024 Jaguars, I’m in favor of it.
TE Mark Andrews vs. Eagles
He had the nifty touchdown on Monday night, but his market share is usually modest when Isaiah Likely is around, and Baltimore is unlikely to throw more than 30 passes against anyone. The Eagles have also been excellent in seam coverage all year.
WR Jauan Jennings at Bills
This one hurts because I invested the entire year in his escape. But Brock Purdy is a question mark and the Buffalo area welcomes a major snowstorm. It’s a good week to put Jennings on your bench, preferably with a ski cap on.
