It can be easy to overturn and question even the easiest start/sit decisions, especially in the fantasy football playoffs. Can we trust recent tree performance? Should we stick with the stars who got us to the play-offs and who have disappointed lately? Dalton Del Don is here to help us gauge the reliability of certain players in the playoffs based on their recent production (or lack thereof).
AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
Brown hasn’t seen double-digit targets in a game since Week 1, and he’s been fantasy’s WR37 since Week 8 (DeVonta Smith was the WR36 during that span). Brown is the WR45 in expected fantasy points on the season, while he has seen just four red zone targets all year (and only one inside the ten). Brown remains an elite wide receiver who leads the league in yards per route, but volume has eroded his fantasy value.
Brown ranks second in target share (31.7%), but he ranks 45th in targets (66). Jalen Hurts is averaging 33.0 pass attempts through the first four games this season, but just 21.4 in nine games since parting ways with Philadelphia. The Eagles have the lowest success rate above expectations in the NFL this season and rank second-to-last in WR fantasy usage over the past month. The run-heavy approach is unlikely to change now that Philadelphia has won all nine games since the bye. Additionally, the Eagles have had the league’s easiest WR schedule so far, but will face a more challenging schedule down the road. Brown is shadowed this week by Joey Porter Jr. against a tough Steelers defense that has led the league in EPA/dropback since Week 9.
You don’t have Brown in fantasy leagues, but his confidence level has dropped to high-end WR2 status going forward.
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Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Addison is suddenly the WR13 in fantasy points per game this season after scoring three times last week. He has six more targets and 26 more fantasy points than Justin Jefferson last month, when he also led Minnesota in air yards share (42%) and end zone target share (40%). Addison also ranks fourth in yards per route (3.33) and sixth in first-read target share (35.5%) over that span.
The Vikings’ WR schedule continues to look difficult during the fantasy playoffs, but Addison could benefit from Jaylon Johnson shadowing Jefferson this week. Sam Darnold’s TD% (7.3) will likely drop, but Addison appears to be making a legitimate second-year jump.
Addison may be due for a bit of regression, but he can be trusted in fantasy lineups. Don’t be surprised by a down game in a hugely volatile position from week to week.
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Thielen has been the WR10 the past two weeks, despite not getting credit for this touchdown catch and facing the league’s best defense last week (when he was mostly overshadowed by Cooper DeJean). Thielen leads Carolina in target share (30%), air yard share (33%) and end zone target share (50%) over the past two games, and Bryce Young has shown real improvement that isn’t necessarily reflected in his box scores.
Thielen was fantasy’s WR7 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) through the first eight weeks last season, and Young is now playing at a much higher level. The Panthers have the seventh-easiest WR schedule during the fantasy playoffs, including a top matchup at Tampa Bay during championship week.
The concern is the possible return of Jalen Coker, who has been sidelined since Thielen returned. But the Panthers have the second-highest WR fantasy usage in the league over the past month, and Xavier Legette has struggled mightily with drops (Coker could go outside). Additionally, Coker’s return isn’t necessarily imminent, as Carolina added two wide receivers to its roster on Tuesday.
Thielen can be completely trusted as a WR2 in this stretch.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Reed is the WR26 in fantasy points per game this season and the WR6 last calendar year, but he has been the WR51 since Week 9, sandwiched between Brandin Cooks and Ray-Ray McCloud. Roll and volume have been the culprits; Reed’s targets per route has dropped from 24.3% as a rookie to 19.6% this season, and he still isn’t playing in 12-man squads. Reed ran just 15 routes last week, as he finished with season lows in target share (5.3%), snap share (44%) and route share (57%) despite Romeo Doubs being out.
Additionally, the Packers have the fourth-lowest success rate above expectations this season. Jordan Love has just six touchdown passes in his last six games (after throwing 15 in his first five), and he’s averaged just 22.0 pass attempts over four games since parting ways with Green Bay. The Packers have a favorable schedule in Weeks 16 and 17, but they get a Seahawks defense on Sunday night that has given up the second-lowest EPA/play since Week 9 (and with Devon Witherspoon in the slot corner).
Reed remains the WR27 in the expert consensus ranks this week, but he has lost all confidence among fantasy managers entering the playoffs.
Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills
Cooper saw 14 targets and the most air yards (254) in any game last week. He led Buffalo with a target share of 38%, shattering his previous record (16.7%) since joining the Bills. Cooper still had just 63% route participation and played just 54% of snaps last week despite Keon Coleman staying out.
The Bills project will compete again this week in Detroit, as the matchup has a whopping 54.5 point total, easily one of the highest of the entire season. That said, the Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy WR points beyond expectations this season, while Coleman and Dalton Kincaid could return.
There is obvious upside if last week’s relationship with Josh Allen continues, and Sunday’s game could provide another opportunity, but fantasy managers have no idea if they can trust Cooper at this point.