Another week, another round of critically important starting/sitting decisions. To help you achieve this, here are six players with bust potential in Week 12.
Something to keep in mind as you read: a “fade” or “bust” designation does not automatically mean you should draft a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
It’s really hard to imagine a fantasy quarterback throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for a week fading away – especially in what could be a high-scoring game against the Philadelphia Eagles with plenty of offensive firepower on both sidelines.
However, this feels like the ultimate trap game… especially for Rams QB, Matthew Stafford.
Stafford is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season in Week 11, going 18-of-27 for 295 passing yards and 4 touchdowns against the New England Patriots, resulting in 27.8 fantasy points as the overall QB5 of the week. While it seems like a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles could be intriguing at first glance, it bears repeating that this Eagles secondary matchup is not the same as last year.
The unit that ranked in the top three in net passing yards per game (255.7) and the second-most passing TDs all season (38) is no more; it is now the Reed Blankenship, Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell show. This group of defensive backs, who join Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the secondary, are vastly underrated, allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (172.2), a league-low 5.0 yards per pass attempt is possible and a shared third place. fewest passing touchdowns all season (9).
Heat check 🔥 Unless you’re in a two-QB or Superflex league, Stafford is better off staying on fantasy benches this week, even despite an intriguing projected total of 49.5 points from oddsmakers this week.
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard is coming off an excellent season in 2024 and was rewarded handsomely for his production (on one of the league’s worst offenses, mind you) with a nice, big contract extension. He showed his worth in the game that immediately followed, posting 169 scrimmage yards and a score in Week 10 before their bye.
Despite his recent dominance this season, there are two glaring reasons to suspect Hubbard won’t maintain the production path. The first of those reasons is the matchup; this week the Panthers will face the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been among the most productive defenses this year, holding opposing RBs to a league-low 3.11 yards per carry and a league-low 522 rushing yards had to give up in 10 games. Their 12.82 fantasy points per game put them in last place in the league.
Combined with the tough matchup on deck is the scheduled debut for second-round rookie RB Jonathon Brooks, who will play in his first NFL game after a torn ACL that has kept him out so far this year. It doesn’t seem likely he’ll play a significant role in Week 12, but every piece of the pie he gets is a piece of Hubbard’s plate.
Heat check 🔥 You’ll probably be in a position where you have to start Hubbard considering the six teams have byes this week. However, it’s best to expect something closer to an RB3/RB4 performance from him than his standard top-12 finish, even if Brooks fills a minimal role.
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RB D’André Swift, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears have made a significant shift over the past two weeks, firing former OC Shane Waldron and promoting passing coordinator Thomas Brown to calling plays in the meantime. In Brown’s first game calls, the offense racked up its most yards (391) since the Oct. 6 win over the Carolina Panthers — that’s the good news. Normally that would mean exciting things for the run game, but there is another side to the coin (the bad news).
In Week 12, the Bears will face the Minnesota Vikings, a matchup that is one of the most suffocating games of the season. The Vikings’ defense is allowing the second-lowest YPC average (3.6), second-fewest rush yards after contact per attempt (2.4) and third-lowest explosive run rate (9) this season .3%), with the second fewest fantasy points given up per game against opposing RBs (14.54).
Another interesting tidbit worth mentioning in terms of Swift’s upside in the week ahead is an increase in workload for backup RB Roschon Johnson last week. He saw a 42% attack rate on the season and earned 11 touches on the season. The fact that this increase in usage coincided with the coaching service is intriguing. Additionally, Swift is dealing with a groin injury that forced him to miss practice on Wednesday, although HC Matt Eberflus says he is hopeful he will play.
Heat check 🔥 Swift should be a starter in most leagues, barring much better options, as he has shown a fairly safe floor dating back to Week 4, with 10+ fantasy points in all but one game since then. However, a challenging matchup combined with an increase in work for Johnson last week makes Swift less attractive than usual.
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
We’re fading the passer this week, so why not fade his main target?
As noted above, the Philadelphia Eagles have had a sneaky good defense since Cooper DeJean took over a near-full-time role in Week 6. Although he plays primarily slot corners, his presence has all but transformed the secondary into a shutdown unit.
Since Week 6, here’s a look at the Eagles’ secondary defense’s performance against targets of WRs lined up wide and where it ranks among the other defenses according to Next Gen Stats:
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36.8% success rate (low in the league)
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45.4 NFL passer rating (league low)
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Completion rate of 45.6% (league low)
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-0.15 EPA per dropback (second lowest)
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273 yards (third fewest)
The Eagles’ secondary is also the only team not to allow a single touchdown to WRs lined up wide in that span. Considering Nacua plays primarily along the perimeter (74% snap rate this season) while teammate Cooper Kupp mans the slot with a 69% snap rate, there are realistic concerns he could have an inefficient day.
Heat check 🔥 Under no circumstances do you bench Nacua; he’s a star with absurd playing strength and would benefit from lining up next to Kupp, which could help split the coverage against this stingy Eagles secondary. However, if this is the week you need a monster game, brace yourself for possible disappointment.
WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
The DeVonta Smith experience has had its ups and downs in the 2024 season; he has a career average catch rate of 74.5% with slot usage at a career-high (52.9% compared to his previous career-high of 31.1%). While that appears to have increased his overall fantasy level after gaining 64 or more yards in six of the nine games this year, it appears his lead has been capped, but still the 90 mark has surpassed receiving yards in a given metric. game.
In Week 12, he takes on the Los Angeles Rams in a sneakily challenging matchup against top-ranked WRs, which could mean another lackluster performance for fantasy managers. Dating back to Week 6, the Rams are allowing a 29% success rate on targets to WRs per NFL Next Gen Stats, posting an NFL passer rating of 41.4 (45.2% completion rate) and a ridiculous 1:5 TD:INT give up ratio on such plays.
Heat check 🔥 As I’ve noted a few times in this article, this feels more like a trap play for fantasy managers than the barn burner we’re all hoping for given the firepower of these respective offenses. Given Smith’s lack of ceiling this year, combined with a challenging matchup, Smith isn’t a must-start in Week 12 if you have better options. If you must start a week full of byes, do so with tempered expectations.
TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
There was a point earlier this season (around Weeks 4-8) where many suspected they had found the answer to their tight end problems in second-year Packer Tucker Kraft. Unfortunately, his consistency as a red zone weapon has waned in recent weeks, failing to produce a single catch in Week 11 after Green Bay’s bye. However, in case you were holding out hope for a bounce-back performance, it doesn’t seem likely to come against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, even if they do lay out some design touches for him a week after his goose egg. .
The 49ers have been a challenging matchup for their opponents this season, failing to allow a single TE more than 10 fantasy points in a single matchup, giving them the second-lowest Y/A average on targets had to give up for the position in the competition (5.5). ), behind only the Houston Texans. Their 44.6% success rate on pass attempts aimed at TEs ranks fourth in the league, according to Next Gen Stats, allowing just 356 yards (fourth-fewest) and 2 TD (9th-fewest) at the position all season .
Heat check 🔥 A certain level of volatility is expected any time you roll out a Packers pass catcher, but given the Niners’ strengths in the middle of the field and history of shutting down more than capable TEs this season, Kraft better handle stay on the side. your bank. Consider a streaming option like rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders, who has a favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this week.
