Week 11 wasn’t a perfect week with the sleeper page, no week ever is. Russell Wilson was a big disappointment and Audric Estimé didn’t do much in Denver. But Taysom Hill and Jerry Jeudy crushed their projections, and Will Dissly also had a strong game. We’ll take that hit percentage every time.
Week 12 is probably the most challenging week of the fantasy season. It’s not just the six teams saying goodbye, but the quality of those collective rosters (Bills, Bengals, Falcons, Jets, Jaguars, Saints). You may be confused, and hopefully we can help you. Remember that you will probably need fewer points than usual to win your fantasy game this week.
WR Quentin Johnston vs. Ravens (47%)
When the Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh, the team’s identity immediately changed. Harbaugh brings a physical, run-oriented character to every squad he coaches, and it’s part of the success story this year. But don’t confuse the LAC offense with a unit that deflates the ball and only passes out of desperation. The Chargers are in the middle of the pack (19th, to be precise) in success rate above expectations. They’re certainly not the Air Coryell Chargers, but this isn’t a leather helmet offense either.
And now the Chargers host Baltimore, a good team that has struggled against the pass all year. The Ravens have given up the most fantasy points to wideouts this year, and it’s not close.
Johnston’s development in his sophomore year was a fun story in Los Angeles. He scored touchdowns in three straight weeks and scored a season-best eight goals against Cincinnati. This is the week he graduates from the sleeper page and takes his roster tag above 50%.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at Texans (9%)
I understand someone’s reluctance to believe in Will Levis. Most of his key passing numbers are well below league average. But the Titans have a narrow passing tree, and since trading DeAndre Hopkins, Westbrook-Ikhine has been a key part of that tree.
Westbrook-Ikhine has touchdowns in five of six games, and while the first part of that run has been a string of short touchdowns, he has also shown he can get downfield (think last week’s 98-yard catch and run) . And it’s important to recognize that Westbrook-Ikhine rarely comes off the field now; he has gained a 94% share since trading Hopkins. Houston’s secondary also offers a plus matchup for opposing wide receivers.
WR Alec Pierce vs. Lions (19%)
We saw last week that Anthony Richardson’s return was nothing to fear; the second-year quarterback was outstanding in the comeback win over the Jets. And Richardson and Pierce have shown good rapport all year: Pierce has a solid 60% catch rate on Richardson targets this year, and his average reception from Richardson is over 20 yards. The Colts are going to make deep shots.
The Lions defense has quietly become one of the best units in the league. It’s not just Ben Johnson’s high-flying offense that sparked Detroit’s resurgence. But the Lions are behind two critical members of the defense (pass-rushing ace Aidan Hutchinson, star linebacker Alex Anzalone), and Detroit has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing wideouts on a weekly basis. Pierce can come home in this matchup.
TE Will Dissly vs. Ravens (45%)
I’m surprised Dissly hasn’t graduated from this column yet, but that will happen soon. He is the TE12 of the past five weeks, including a TE5 featured last week. He is on the Justin Herbert Circle of Trust. Explosive plays aren’t part of the story here (9.5 YPC), but Dissly has a reliable catch radius.
TE Luke Schoonmaker vs. Commanders (6%)
This choice is clearly based on Jake Ferguson’s status: if Ferguson (concussion) can’t go, Schoonmaker will play a significant role. We saw Schoonmaker return a TE10 finish in Week 2 when Ferguson couldn’t play, and Schoonmaker collected 10 targets and six catches in a spot of need last Monday. As a non-starter in Dallas, he has taken plenty of reps at current QB Cooper Rush. Rapport is important.
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RB Roschon Johnson vs. Vikings (24%)
It’s been a tough year for back sleepers, considering the overall health of the position. But you might need some unusual choices for week 12, so we trudge on. Johnson has hit for five touchdowns as Chicago’s regular target line, and it’s possible Johnson will need more touches this week with D’Andre Swift dealing with a groin injury. Minnesota’s defense is a terrible draw for the Bears, but if you play Johnson this week, you’re betting on some kind of touchdown deodorant.
QB Drake Maye at Dolphins (16%)
Maye’s fantasy profile isn’t much different from what Bo Nix offered a month or so ago. There’s a rushing board here and Maye’s passage was better than expected despite the usual supporting cast around him. Miami’s defense is a bad draw, there’s no way around that. But Maye is a solid bet for resourceful running and passing volume, especially considering New England is a 7.5-point underdog at this spot — the game script will likely help his fantasy results.
RB Audric Estimated at Raiders (33%)
I know a lot of fantasy managers will be hesitant to move back here. Javonte Williams was great last week, Estimé wasn’t and Williams has the starting baton. But Sean Payton has made it clear that this is a hot-hand situation, and no matter how poorly Estimé played last week, he still had nine touches at the end of the game. He has similar parity in a game the Broncos should control, road favorites against the two-win Raiders. Estimé cannot be seen as a make-believe play on the floor, but you can squint and see something positive.
