Determine your Week 12 lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key start/sit advice for every match on the list.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Seat: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard was one of Fantasy’s top draft picks this season, but he will face the league’s toughest defense this week. The Chiefs have allowed the league’s fewest touches (20.9), rushing yards (52.2) and fantasy points (12.8) to running backs. No RB has reached 60 rushing yards against Kansas City this season. Rookie Jonathon Brooks will make his NFL debut on Sunday and will take away some details, and the Panthers have an implied team total of 16.5 points in the league. Granted, Hubbard may be needed this week with six byes, but expectations should be tempered.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Sits: Sam Darnold
Darnold posted an 8.4 YPA with a 12:5 TD:INT ratio over his first six games this season, but he has a 7.5 YPA with a 5:5 ratio over four games since LT Christian Darrisaw went down went. Darnold has had a favorable schedule over the past month, but he faces a tough, slow game outside this week in Chicago. The Bears are a run-funnel defense that allows the seventh-most EPA/rush but the second-fewest EPA/pass. Chicago has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and an NFL-low seven passing scores.
Start Rome Odunzewho leads Chicago in target share (23%), catches (17), yards (233), yards per route run (1.77) and 1D/RR over four games since the bye. He gets a pass-funnel Vikings defense, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs but third-most to WRs.
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Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Start: Calvin Ridley
Ridley’s fantasy day would have looked a lot better last week if his 51-yard touchdown hadn’t been negated by an illegal formation penalty. Since Will Levis returned, he has finished in the top three in air yards in consecutive weeks. In fact, Ridley leads the league in air yards, and he has been the fantasy WR8 for four games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. Ridley should continue to see good volume this week against a Houston defense that is potent against the run but gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Start: Jared Goff
Goff has 19 touchdown passes in the past eight games and his 9.2 YPA leads the NFL. If you’re into coverage schemes (h/t TruMedia), it might be worth noting that Goff has mostly shredded man coverage this season, leading the NFL in YPA (11.9) and Passer Rating (154 ,3). All eight of Goff’s interceptions came against zone coverage, which the Colts have used at the second-highest rate in the league (79.6%).
Still, Goff has remained sufficiently productive against Zone, posting 8.9 YPA with the third-most TD passes (nine). Goff gets a quick matchup indoors, and the Lions have an implied team total of 30.5 points in the league, so he should stay in fantasy lineups.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Sits: Jaylen Waddle
Waddle now seems ready for a breakout game every week, but he averaged just 3.3 catches, 51.3 receiving yards and 0.2 TDs through six games with Tua Tagovailoa this season. He would be fantasy’s WR49 during that season (7.9 fantasy points per game). Waddle ranks 65th in fantasy points per route this year.
The Dolphins have a healthy projected total (27.5 points), with Christian Gonzalez shadowing Tyreek Hill. However, Waddle has a low air yards share of 16.2%, a TPRR of 0.14, and a coverage of 0.28 XFP/RR versus man this season, which New England has used at the third-highest rate in the league ( 40.6%). The Patriots are also one of the few teams that didn’t make much use of two-high against the Dolphins last season, and Waddle has seen a -25.7% FP/RR reduction versus single-high since last season .
This could be a monster week for Hill.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants
Starts: Bucky Irving and Rachaad White
Mike Evans will return this week, but expect White and Irving to lead Tampa Bay’s offense. As of Week 6, Irving is fantasy’s RB23 (points per game) and White is the RB8. The Buccaneers are six-point home favorites (with an implied team total of 24.5 points) and are coming off their bye against a Giants franchise that started Tommy DeVito for financial reasons, so the game script should be favorable. New York has been hammered over the past month for having the highest EPA/rush in the league, and the Giants have allowed the most schedule-adjusted rushing fantasy points to RBs over the past five games. They’ve given up an NFL-high 5.3 YPC this season.
There is some concern that Sean Tucker will get more involved as well, but he has been an afterthought since his big game in Week 6. Both Irving and White can be confident going into this week.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Start: Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson saw seventeen chances on his return last week, including a goal on the goal line. He ranks in the top 10 in rushing TDs (seven) this season despite missing three games thanks to heavy red zone work. Robinson is off the injury report this week, so hopefully he’s closer to 100%. The Cowboys have been tied for NFL highs in EPA/rush and rushing touchdowns while allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
Washington has the second-highest implied team total this week (28.5 points) and is a double-digit home favorite against a reeling Cowboys team, so the game script should be very favorable. Robinson has averaged 5.5 YPC at home this season and is a strong fantasy starter this week.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Start: Bo Nix
Nix ranks fourth in fantasy points per game and third in catchable throws since Week 5. He is the QB4 in expected fantasy points on the season, and Nix barely threw in the field earlier this year. Additionally, the Broncos suddenly moved on 60% of their dropbacks last week after moving last; Nix went 17-for-19 for 230 yards (12.1 YPA) with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio on those plays. He gets an indoor matchup against a Raiders defense this week, putting up the eighth-best fantasy points for QBs and dealing with multiple injuries in their secondary. Nate Hobbs, Jack Jones and Jakorian Bennett did not practice on Thursday this week, so Las Vegas may be three starting corners behind.
Nix looks like a top-five fantasy QB again this week.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Start: Jauan Jennings
Jennings has averaged 119.7 receiving yards and 29.3 FPG through three games without Brandon AIyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr.; both brands would lead the NFL this season. His first-read target percentage of 42% over that period would rank second in the league this year. Jennings has averaged more fantasy points per route than Justin Jefferson this season, and he ranks in the top five in 1D/RR. We get the 2023 version of Jennings’ Aiyuk, who replaced BA in San Francisco’s “X” role.
Green Bay will be missing corner Jaire Alexander and Samuel Sr. simply hasn’t looked the same while recovering from pneumonia. Brock Purdy’s status will need to be monitored as he deals with a sore shoulder, but Jennings looks like a weekly top-15 WR if his QB’s health cooperates.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Start: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison Jr. finally started running more crossing routes before Arizona’s bye, and hopefully MHJ gets the proverbial rookie bump coming out of it. Harrison Jr. ranks seventh in air yard share (41.1%) and eighth in end zone targets – tied with Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb.
Harrison Jr. has faced the league’s fifth-toughest WR schedule so far (its QB has had the toughest), but the rookie wideout is getting the fourth-easiest on the way up. Harrison Jr. has scored the second-most fantasy points per route against the press this season, which Seattle has used at the fifth-highest rate in the league. The Seahawks have also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points against projected WRs this season.
Kyler Murray posted 9.1 YPA over his last three games before Arizona said goodbye to three top pass defenses, so the Cardinals’ offense has upside. Harrison Jr. is a top 15 WR in this quick matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles @Los Angeles Rams
Seated: Matthew Stafford
Stafford has averaged 296.4 passing yards, 2.2 touchdowns and 19.0 fantasy points (~QB7) this season in games with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua; he’s averaging 215.0 passing yards, 0.4 TDs and 8.9 fantasy points (~QB40) without them (h/t FTN). And Nacua was kicked out of one of those games early. Stafford also faces further touchdown regression, as he leads the league in end zone targets (33) but ranks just 12th in TD passes.
That said, fantasy managers should at least explore alternatives this week as the Rams face an Eagles defense that has allowed a 2:5 TD:INT ratio since Week 4. A league-low 18.7% of passing plays against Philadelphia have gained 10+ yards over that span. The Eagles have allowed only one wide receiver (Ja’Marr Chase) to score higher than WR40 in weekly scoring since Week 4. Philadelphia has surrendered an NFL low 19.3 meters per trip during the past two months.
A shootout is possible here, but Stafford will be up against the league’s best defense.
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sits: JK Dobbins
Gus Edwards has taken 30% of the rush attempts since his return, while Hassan Haskins has stolen 46% of the attempts inside the five-yard line. Dobbins will maintain his fantasy value with a still-healthy role in a good offense, but he’s averaging just 3.7 YPC since Week 2 and will have a tough matchup on Monday night. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest RB rushing yards per game this season (61.1) and an NFL-low 3.4 YPC. Baltimore has been vulnerable to receiving backs, but Dobbins is averaging just 2.0 goals this month. Fantasy managers may not be able to part with Dobbins as much this week, but his expectations should be lowered.
Start with Quentin Johnstonwho led Chargers WRs in rush share (81%) and had career highs in targets (eight) and air yards (165) last week. He’s been a broken coverage trader at times, but Johnston also has the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (six) among all pass catchers this season. Ravens opponents have averaged by far the most pass attempts (39.5) this year, so Johnston is in the top 25 WR this week.
