Laps of honor in week 1?
NOT SO FAST!
Fantasy football managers were on the verge of scrapping their ideas for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in advance after disappointing performances in Week 1. Week 2, however, brought tremendous breakout games for the highly touted rookie receivers.
Both receivers went from under 10 fantasy point performances to being ranked WR1 and WR3 in Week 2, prior to the primetime games.
It’s poetic that Harrison Jr. and Nabers had a breakout game in the same week. Both receivers were drafted to be the Cardinals’ and Giants’ undisputed WR1s, and fantasy managers drafted them with a significant gap to the other rookies in the first round.
Should we address the dramatic turnaround in Week 2 for both receivers?
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Typically taken early in the second round of fantasy drafts, Harrison Jr. was one of the most controversial early round picks. You were either a true believer and drafted him with confidence when it mattered, or you were a complete fade with an emphatic “no rookie could ever cash out at this ADP.” A shocking Week 1 debut of just one reception on three targets for four yards led to industry-wide criticism.
Quarterback Kyler Murray stated that it is not his job to get the ball to Harrison Jr. Concerns arose over Harrison Jr.’s speed when he maxed out at 16.7 MPH in Week 1. Many fantasy managers were quick to draft him as a bust and a potential bust.
Murray has apparently decided was his job, hitting Harrison Jr. for a 23-yard touchdown on the Cardinals’ first drive. The duo topped that touchdown with a 60-yard bomb on the next drive. Harrison Jr. had 130 and two touchdowns in the first quarter alone and could have had an even bigger outing if the Rams had made this a competitive game.
Wrist measurement: Was week 1 just a disappointment and is #MHJWR1SZN (yes, I already coined that term when this article was published) already around the corner?
For every bit of reactionary panic fantasy managers had in Week 1, I encourage an equally dramatic reaction to his Week 2 performance. This looked like the Cardinals offense we expected to see coming into the season. Week 1 was disappointing across the NFL, and it’s possible that minimal preseason play created a lack of cohesion overall and the Cardinals were just one of many teams that struggled. The connection between Murray and Harrison Jr. in Week 2 was electric, but what gives me even more confidence in the longevity of that production is that it wasn’t exclusive to Harrison Jr. — the entire Cardinals offense thrived.
Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Prediction on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has arrived; his flight was only slightly delayed and we believe in his production and ascent.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Unlike Harrison Jr., the problem with Nabers is that fantasy managers thought his ceiling would be limited with Daniel Jones at quarterback. The perception was that he was being drafted at his ceiling with no chance of WR1 upside. Targets would be consistent, but yardage and touchdown opportunities would be limited. His Week 1 performance of five receptions on seven targets for 66 yards served as the perfect confirmation to declare Nabers doomed for 10-point fantasy performances in 2024.
The concerns about Nabers’ Week 1 performance were valid. We expected mediocrity from Jones, but the appeal of Nabers was that he would dominate targets and provide value on volume. Instead of a strong target share for Nabers, it was Wan’Dale Robinson who saw 12 targets. Hyper-focus on the slot has been a common theme in Jones’ career. We attributed it to the Giants drafting an abnormal number of slot receivers, but after Week 1, the concern lingered that the Giants simply couldn’t consistently perform outside of the slot.
However, a favorable matchup in Week 2 against the Commanders gave Nabers an overall WR3 finish going into primetime games, with 10 receptions on 18 targets for 127 yards and one touchdown. Nabers was given an astonishing 64% target share — oddly higher than his 56% catch rate.
It was the truly dominant performance we wanted to see.
Pulse Check: Is Nabers QB-proof?
Let me preface this by saying that I’ve drafted a lot of Malik Nabers, so I’m a real pro-Nabers analyst. This level of production is very encouraging, but the Giants don’t play Washington every week. It’s great to know that the ceiling exists, but we have to keep expectations in check.
Many analysts have compared Nabers’ situation to that of Garrett Wilson before Aaron Rodgers (though it should be noted that we’re still waiting for the Rodgers boost). For reference, Wilson’s best game of his young career ironically came in the second game of his rookie season. Wilson had eight receptions on 14 targets for 102 yards and two touchdowns for 26 fantasy points in half-PPR. That’s a close second to Nabers and should be used as a reminder that we’re not entirely out of the woods yet with Nabers’ quarterback limitation.
To make matters worse, the Giants lost the game and the schedule will only get worse until the Giants face the Commanders again in Week 9. By then, Jones may not even be the starting quarterback anymore.
The Wilson comparison still stands, and we should still view Nabers as a WR2 with potential in prime matchups, and we should hope for a new quarterback in 2025.
