Another week, another round of crucial start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 3.
Please note that a ‘fade’ or ‘bust’ designation does not automatically mean you should bench a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
Want some old-school, ground-and-pound football? Look no further than this Chargers-Steelers Week 3 showdown, where OCs Greg Roman and Arthur Smith may not be battling it out for the win, but to see which team can come out with a lower passing rate.
Which brings me to my first fade of the week — Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. There’s no doubt in my mind that Herbert is a top quarterback in the NFL who has unfortunately been stuck with a string of inept head coaches and offensive coordinators. Unfortunately, now that he has some semblance of stability on the coaching staff, it seems like their ultimate goal is to take the air out of the football.
Through two weeks, the Chargers have the second-lowest pass-play rate in the league at 42.9% … just one spot ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers at 44.4%. This matchup screams, “run the ball down their throat,” and with such low projected pass volume, Herbert belongs on the bench.
Heat control 🔥 Justin Herbert would be benched in most single-quarterback leagues in favor of other streaming options like Geno Smith (vs. Dolphins) or Deshaun Watson (vs. Giants). While Superflex and two-QB managers may not have the luxury of streaming, it should certainly temper expectations in what Vegas predicts will be the lowest-scoring matchup of the week (35.5 points).
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The Arizona Cardinals continue to be a pleasant surprise this year, and 29-year-old running back James Conner is no exception. Aside from a goal-line fumble in Week 2 (fortunately recovered by Trey McBride for a touchdown), Conner has been exactly what fantasy managers hoped for, tied for the sixth-most rushing attempts in the league with a 100% team market share on the team’s RB rushing attempts from inside the red zone and five — impeccable usage.
In Week 3, the Lions’ defensive strengths against the run could force the Cardinals to rely more on the pass, allowing -0.9 rush yards per carry above expectation per NFL Next Gen Stats — the fifth-lowest average in the league — for an overall average of 3.3 yards per attempt to opponents. Expect a less efficient day than we’ve come to expect from Conner against this unit, which held Kyren Williams to just 54 total yards on 22 touches in Week 1.
Heat control 🔥 You still have Conner starting in Week 3 fantasy lineups, but you can view him more as an RB2 with touchdown potential against the Lions defense.
Surprise! The answer to the question “Which Dallas Cowboys running back should we draft?” is… none, so far. Who would Did you think 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott and UDFA Rico Dowdle wouldn’t form one of the league’s best rushing attacks? Through two weeks, neither Elliott nor Dowdle has seen more than 10 carries in a game, and neither has been efficient enough with their ground work to surpass that for fantasy purposes; they’re averaging 3.5 and 3.7 yards per carry, respectively.
In Week 3, the Cowboys have their hands full against the Baltimore Ravens defensive line. No thank you.
Heat control 🔥 I don’t care how desperate I am, or what other running back injuries I have. I’m going to throw this entire Cowboys backfield away in Week 3 at all costs.
You may recognize Pittman Jr. from last week’s column . Well … he’s back! Week 2 has been just as concerning as Week 1 for Pittman, who has only 52 receiving yards through two weeks. That production has disappointed fantasy managers who invested a third- or fourth-round pick in the veteran wideout; he currently sits at WR69 after the first two weeks of the season.
The biggest problem with Pittman right now is the inconsistency of the passing game. QB Anthony Richardson excels at deep throws, but struggles with more of the short and intermediate passing game — where Pittman works his magic.
While he’s currently averaging the highest depth of target of his career (10.9 yards), it hasn’t translated into production. He’s averaging career lows across the board with a 50% catch rate, 7.4 yards per reception, 0.96 yards per route run, and a very, very disappointing 1.3 yards after the catch per reception.
Heat control 🔥 I promise this is the last time I mention him (at least for the next few weeks). Consider this a standing warning against Pittman; pass on him until proven otherwise. It’s unfortunate, but his high-end skillset on the court currently doesn’t match his fantasy production and he’s no longer a must-start.
While I know Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have a ton of talent, I’m not sure it’s enough to make up for Skylar Thompson’s shortcomings at quarterback… especially against the Seattle Seahawks’ severely underrated secondary with Julian Love, Tariq Woolen and second-year playmaker Devon Witherspoon playing so well.
In games in which Thompson has played at least 25% of the offensive snaps, he has averaged 5.0 yards per pass attempt — an average that would tie rookie Bo Nix for the fourth-lowest average among QBs with 10+ dropbacks this season, per PFF. He has thrown for a touchdown on just 1.2% of his attempts and a pick on 2.5% of his attempts. You don’t need all of these stats to innately know that this passing attack is taking a step back without Tua Tagovailoa, but the numbers are even uglier than you might think.
Heat control 🔥 You probably don’t have the luxury of sitting either of these receivers, so I apologize for being the Debbie Downer. Both Hill and Waddle have the physical talent to overcome poor quarterback play, but it seems likely that offensive genius Mike McDaniel will bypass the team’s strength in the run game until they find another answer at quarterback.
Sorry in advance for glossing over everyone’s favorite sleeper TE. Parkinson is replacing the currently injured Tyler Higbee and has performed admirably in a small sample size. He could be a big part of the offense without Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle).
Parkinson ranks second among tight ends with 67 routes run through the first two weeks of the season, and that level of participation should continue to increase given their needs. A Week 3 game against the San Francisco 49ers, however, won’t solve anyone’s tight end woes.
The 49ers are allowing -0.49 EPA per dropback on targets to the tight end position — the sixth-lowest rate in the league, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That equates to a concession of just three catches for 18 receiving yards to New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings tight ends combinedGranted, neither team has a true TE1, but they also had the unfortunate opportunity to face linebacker Fred Warner across midfield — a matchup Parkinson will face next. Warner is one of the league’s best linebackers in coverage, having already forced an incompletion, pass breakup and interception in the first two weeks of the season.
Heat control 🔥 Parkinson is a tough guy to sit if you’ve been streaming the tight end position, as there haven’t been any consistent options that have jumped off the page. Given the potential for volume despite the inefficiency, consider him a fringe TE1/TE2 with the understanding that his floor is quite low.
