New week, new Make or Break list!
Before you look at this list and say, “I would NEVER start any of these guys,” let’s take a look at the state of our flex plays in Week 7. Looking specifically at running backs, once we getting outside the top 10, I think I feel extremely uncomfortable with our options. Leadback injuries plus an increase in commissions means that once you get past James Conner, you’re taking a risk no matter who you pick.
Inconsistencies at quarterback have made WR3 and beyond very shaky. When making tough flex choices, we have to consider a wide range of factors: matchup, upside, volatility.
Let’s look at some Week 7 options.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Darnell Mooney’s production in Week 6 was disappointing considering the matchup against a pass-friendly Carolina defense. However, usually only one receiver has performed well against the Panthers in any given game, so this isn’t particularly alarming. Before last week, Mooney had been fairly reliable and had a high ceiling.
After a breakout performance in week 5, we probably set our expectations a little too high. Drake London is the bright, consistent Falcons’ WR1 and Mooney is a solid WR2 with flex value. In situations with a high passage volume, Mooney is worth starting. However, Mooney is risky in games where the Falcons push aggressively on the ground.
Will Mooney to make or break your line-up in week 7?
This week, Mooney faces a Seattle defense that has struggled in recent weeks. WR2s have been productive against Seattle’s defense and Mooney has upside here. The downside is that teams haven’t pushed the pass aggressively against the Seahawks and volume could be an issue. If your team has multiple receiving threats, that doesn’t leave many opportunities. This means Mooney will be a boom-or-bust game this week.
We’re in line for another two-touchdown, fantasy-point extravaganza… or a less-than-five fantasy-point disaster.​
Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
After the Chiefs lost Isiah Pacheco for a year, Carson Steele stepped in as the RB1 but quickly fell out of favor due to turnovers. Kareem Hunt was activated and immediately took control. The Chiefs are on a bye, but in Week 5, Hunt had 27 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown. Hunt handling that volume was very encouraging.
However, the impending return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire could reduce Hunt’s workload. Edwards-Helaire was on the NFI list and it is important to remember that he is not injured. He may need to step up his conditioning, but he may need to take immediate action. To make matters worse, this week’s matchup isn’t particularly favorable against a 49ers defense that can be stingy against the run.
Will hunt to make or break your line-up in week 7?
It’s important to note that Hunt’s 27 attempts in Week 5 were an extreme outlier for the Chiefs’ run game this season. Even in games with Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs backfield as a whole never reached 27 rush attempts. The game script was an outlier and the Chiefs had their highest offensive yardage total of the season and dominated the performance, nearly doubling New Orleans’ time of possession. Hunt’s production will likely look more like Week 4, when he had 14 carries for 69 yards and two receptions for 16 yards. Even if Edwards-Helaire isn’t active, Hunt isn’t a lock for volume in a game script that could promote decent usage of Samaje Perine.
Hunt is currently ranked as a mid-range RB2, mainly due to injuries and uncertainty in other backfields. You may need to use him out of necessity, but beware: his current ranking will likely exceed his upside. There is a real chance that Hunt disappoints in Week 7.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Ty Chandler should continue to lead the Vikings’ backfield if Aaron Jones is unable to play in Week 7. Normally we would take the lead in a top-level attack, but we have to tread carefully here. I’m struggling to see a scenario where Chandler can produce numbers on par with Aaron Jones. There is simply a big talent difference.
Jones has looked fantastic, averaging nearly five yards per carry this season. Chandler has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and made limited contributions through the air. The Vikings also traded for Cam Akers this week. This is Akers’ second stint with the Vikings. The Vikings traded for him last year and he had modest production, with no more than ten carries in a game before suffering a season-ending injury. Akers is unlikely to take on a significant role, but his familiarity with the Vikings’ offense means he could play immediately and lighten Chandler’s workload.
Will Chandler to make or break your line-up in week 7?
Given the number of injuries and shared workloads we’re dealing with this week, running backs outside the top 20 look extremely ugly. A leadback is a leadback and Chandler has already risen to an RB3 and a clear flex play in the rankings. However, Chandler is still a tough player this week. Aside from his general production issues, the matchup with Detroit is extremely difficult. With the exception of Kenneth Walker III in Week 4, running backs have struggled to find space against Detroit. Detroit’s defense will look a little different this week due to Aidan Hutchinson’s injury, but this is still one of the toughest games for opposing running backs. Chandler has volume potential here and with this game having one of the highest point totals of the week, there will likely be goal line opportunities.
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have signed Travis Etienne Jr. not ruled out this week, but have described him as “week to week” with a hamstring injury, and we all know what that means: the chances of him playing this week are extremely slim. That means waiver wire, dear Tank Bigsby, will be in charge.
There’s a big problem here. If we were to put Bigsby in San Francisco, I would definitely put him in the top 10 this week. But he’s not in San Francisco. He’s on a Jaguars team with a defense that can’t stop anyone. This is a recipe for disaster for a running back that the coaching staff doesn’t trust to pass the block. That’s exactly what led to Bigsby’s seven carries for 24 yards against Chicago last week. Bigsby was significantly outpaced by D’Ernest Johnson as the Jags played from behind.
Will Bigsby to make or break your line-up in week 7?
Bigsby is the better running back, but if the team plays from behind, he can be worthless. Even the Patriots could benefit from this defense (more on this soon).
However, all hope is not lost. Unlike Chicago, New England’s defense is dealing with injuries and could be vulnerable, and the matchup favors running backs. Joe Mixon, Jordan Mason and even Miami’s backcourt of Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright all partied on the court recently against New England. This is simultaneously an excellent and unreliable setup for Bigsby. If the Jags can keep the game close, I have no doubt Bigsby has RB1 upside. If the Jaguars can’t keep up the pace, we’ll be lucky to get even five fantasy points out of Bigsby.
New England Patriots Duo: Drake Maye, QB and DeMario Douglas, WR
Full disclosure: Maye practiced fully but had an MRI of his knee on Wednesday. His injury will need to be monitored, but if he is able to adapt, Maye and Douglas have starting potential in Week 7.
If this were any other matchup, I’d say let’s give the rookie a little more time before throwing him into our starting lineups, but this is no ordinary matchup. Even with an unproven receiving corps and a struggling offensive line, Maye can continue the trend of quarterbacks feeding into Jacksonville’s defense. Every quarterback – other than Deshaun Watson, of course – had a good day on Jacksonville’s defense. The Jags allow an average of two passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
Maye is coming off an impressive debut with three touchdowns on 20 completions for 243 yards; he added 38 yards on the ground, and his presence was a boost to New England’s entire receiving corps, a group that had been useless and essentially destitute this season.
DeMario Douglas was the primary beneficiary with six receptions on nine targets for 92 yards and one touchdown.
To put into perspective how dramatic this is, Maye Douglas gave it literally a career day. To his credit, Douglas has operated as the WR1 in three of the past four games with nine goals. He simply missed the advantage with limited yardage and no touchdowns until Maye’s start.
Will Maye and Douglas to make or break your line-up in week 7?
Both players have risen dramatically in the rankings, with Maye as a borderline QB1 and Douglas as a WR3. The question remains, though: How much faith can we put in an offense that we didn’t have faith in a week ago? It’s entirely possible that this whole thing comes crashing down this week, even with a good matchup.
Maye is a rookie and even looking back at CJ Stroud’s impressive year, there were games where he still performed well below expectations. However, a matchup with Jacksonville simply cannot be missed. While both players are off to somewhat awkward starts, they could absolutely make your fantasy lineup this week.
