After week 4 I took some time for it check in on the 2024 NFL Draft class and how they performed for fantasy football managers. With another month in the books, it’s time to revisit it. Here’s a look at some of the rookies who’ve had a memorable four weeks – for better or worse.
Biggest surprise: QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
There may not have been a rookie QB whose fantasy football value was met with more skepticism this offseason than Bo Nix. Have we missed the signs of a budding fantasy star? Maybe. Through the first half of the fantasy season, Nix is the overall QB9 of the year, scoring 19 or more fantasy points in four of his past six outings.
While he still needs to make some progress as a passer, he has come a long way over the last four weeks; take a look at some of his good numbers from weeks 1-4 versus weeks 5-8 per PFF:
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4.8 YPA ➡️ 7.1
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62.5 NFL passer rating ➡️ 102.7
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7.8 aDOT ➡️ 9.3
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55.8% accurate throwing rate ➡️ 67.0%
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1 TD, 4 INT ➡️ 7 TD, 1 INT
These improvements in the passing game, combined with his rushing edge (32.4 rushing yards per game, 4 total TDs) have given him three top-10 finishes over the last four weeks, despite the Broncos’ less-than-impressive receiving corps was at his disposal – a fact that most people would scoff at prior to the season.
Slowly rising: WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
It feels like the excitement has waned a bit after the Bills opted to trade for Amari Cooper, but don’t let his arrival underestimate the week-over-week improvements for rookie Keon Coleman.
Although he continues to struggle to create space against opposing defenders – a problem for him coming from Florida State – averaging just 7 feet of yardage, which ranks fifth among WRs with over 25 targets, he has been quite efficient with his opportunities this year. He has posted a 131.5 passer rating when targeted (sixth highest), 11.6 yards per target (eighth) and 9.0 yards after the catch per reception (second highest).
Coleman has been a dominant threat from outside, quietly scoring seven goals in each of the past two games. There is a real possibility that Cooper’s arrival could further Coleman’s development as a consistent perimeter threat with a tendency to make stunning catches.
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Biggest disappointment: WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs traded for speedy WR Xavier Worthy in the first round in an effort to get MVP Patrick Mahomes some weapons, and it quickly looked like that investment would pay off; he had two scrimmage TDs (68 total yards) in his first career game. However, despite plenty of opportunities to play a direct role in the offense and a versatile skill set due to season-ending injuries to teammates Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice, Worthy has still not been a consistent presence.
Worthy is more than just a speed trader; he can certainly win on speed, but he can also create separation with his ability as a route runner, including the ability to play both out of bounds and out wide. He is also more than capable as a runner in the backfield. Still, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins isn’t great for potentially higher target share, as he’s had four or fewer targets in half of his games this year, and his deep target rate of 22.9% doesn’t do much to limit his volatility, considering that these are low probability targets.
Through eight weeks of the season, Worthy is on a 17-game pace for a receiving line of 46-571-7.
Biggest question mark: RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
There were a number of fantasy football managers who took a shot at Brooks when news broke that he could return relatively early this season after a torn ACL. First, the reports indicated that the Carolina Panthers were hoping to have him back around Week 3… then they placed him on the PUP list, making him eligible to return in Week 5. Thanthey have designated him to return to practice in mid-October but have not yet added him to their active roster, although he could make a Week 9 debut.
In short: it was a roller coaster. And for what? We don’t actually know yet.
There is no doubt that Brooks was the best running back prospect in this draft class with a unique, well-rounded skill set for a one-year full-time starter at the position; he can run, he can catch passes, he excels in pass protection. However, the Panthers are clearly taking a long-term approach with their young back in what is already a lost season, and it doesn’t appear they are in a rush to impose an RB1 workload on him. After all, they have the luxury of not doing that, with the way Chuba Hubbard has stepped up this year.
It increasingly feels like Brooks is either a league-winning asset or a lineup-breaker for the rest of the season, and there may not be much room in between.
Competition Winner: TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
In my last rookie report I highlighted Brock Bowers as the winner in an unwinnable position, and that remains true. This time I’ve upped the ante with my description and am officially prepared to declare him a league winner for fantasy football managers, barring injury. Bowers is currently the TE2 in half-PPR scoring formats despite only one TD per year and ranks sixth in the NFL with 64 goals so far this season while leading the league in receptions (52) and on Ranks 11th in receiving yards.
Yes. You read all that correctly.
Bowers is producing as a wide receiver despite his position as a tight end – one of the most volatile positions in fantasy football. If you were lucky (AKA, smart) enough to draft Bowers at his preseason ADP of 111.8, congratulations: you won the TE position.
Secret stash for later: RB Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins (7% selected)
The Miami Dolphins faded into the background without Tua Tagovailoa under center, but now that he’s back, it’s time for the rest of the offense. That includes rookie RB Jaylen Wright… even if he doesn’t have a direct path to a major role yet.
While there is no doubt that teammate De’Von Achane is the RB1 in this offense, RB2 Raheem Mostert is 32 years old and has already dealt with some injuries this year. If he has to miss any more time (or lose work due to inefficiency, averaging 3.5 YPC for his career), Wright could be in a great position to retain some weekly flex value with upside potential.
Among RBs with more than 30 carries this season, Wright ranks in the top seven in yards per carry (5.3), rushing grade (89.0), yards after contact per attempt (3.61) and elusive rating (120 .4) per PFF. He offers an elite combination of size and athleticism (6-foot-1, 210 pounds with a 4.38 40-yard dash), which could make him a valuable asset if given the opportunity.
