Insights from The Hill, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Haaretz and Foreign Policy
The news
The Israeli military said it has approved “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon,” raising concerns about a full-scale conflict with the militant group Hezbollah.
Israeli forces have exchanged fire with the Iran-backed army almost daily since the war in Gaza broke out following the Hamas attack on October 7, but the fighting intensified last week after Israel killed one of Hezbollah’s top commanders. A senior American diplomat is in the region to find a diplomatic solution.
Israel demands Hezbollah withdraw from the border, while Hezbollah says it will not sign any deal until there is a ceasefire in Gaza.
SIGNALS
Analysts say escalation may be inevitable
Some analysts have warned that an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable, with two columnists in The Hill arguing that it is “becoming more a matter of when, not if.” Even in the event the situation cools, the calm could be “short-lived,” she added, noting that Israel will not coexist with a force “that possesses a missile arsenal that could overwhelm Israeli air defenses, wreak destruction across the country can rain and protect Iran’s nuclear program.” A researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank wrote that “Israel will only stop when its security is restored and its interests are served.”
The Israeli army may lack manpower for a full-fledged conflict
Although Israel’s Foreign Minister has previously tweeted that Hezbollah “will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely affected” in the event of an all-out war, the Israeli military likely does not have the manpower to “fight all the wars it would like feed”. fighting,” wrote an analyst in Haaretz. “Even if ultra-Orthodox rabbis decide to let their yeshiva students die for their country instead of alone in the tents of Torah, there will not be enough soldiers to realize all of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s dreams.”
A conflict would be bloody for the citizens of Lebanon
Israeli forces have acknowledged that Hezbollah is “ten times stronger than Hamas” and has about three times as many fighters. But Israel’s Defense Minister has also claimed that an escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah would “take Lebanon back to the Stone Age.” Hezbollah is “deeply embedded” in Lebanese civil society, much like Hamas in Gaza, and non-military targets such as civilian infrastructure were targeted by Israeli attacks during a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to Foreign Policy. “The plan would be to destroy any semblance of Hezbollah rule in the country dominated by Hezbollah. That’s a lot of damage we’re talking about,” one analyst told the outlet.
