WASHINGTON — Four years ago, President Donald Trump used his pulpit to spread lies about the election, prompting his supporters to take action based on their belief in massive voter fraud and ultimately attack the U.S. Capitol.
With days to go before the 2024 election, Trump and his allies are using a similar playbook, leading his voters to believe the election could be “rigged.”
In addition to domestic disinformation campaigns, foreign influence operations, foreign terrorist groups and domestic extremists are all simultaneously trying to exploit the election for their own gain, according to dozens of pages of law enforcement documents and months of reporting by NBC News.
“We’ve described the threat environment as everything, everywhere, all at once,” New York Police Department Deputy Commissioner for Intelligence and Counterterrorism Rebecca Weiner said in an interview, describing the overall threat environment.
One big difference this time is that there’s a Democrat in the White House, and federal authorities, including the FBI and the broader Justice Department, have spent years trying to learn from their mistakes last time, as they hunted more than 1,500 Trump supporters arrested and prosecuted. for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. They, along with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency – no longer a target of the sitting president – are already preparing for election interference attempts, both domestic and foreign.
But federal authorities also warn that their role is limited by law and common practice, noting that state and local officials, not the federal government, are the primary authorities in elections. The Justice Department also, by policy, has a “quiet period” leading up to Election Day, during which it avoids taking public actions that could be seen to have an impact on the election. And the Justice Department may be hesitant to do anything that could be construed as political, given the country’s extreme politicization in 2024 and years of accusations from Republicans that it is “weaponized” against Trump.
Attorney General Merrick Garland could theoretically use his own bully pulpit to push back on conspiracy theories about massive voter fraud once the quiet period ends after Tuesday or after the election is called, a process that could take days, even weeks. But as 2020 has shown, election lies can spread so quickly online that even the media will struggle to report the facts in a timely manner. Moreover, over the past decade, Trump and his allies have undermined public trust in the Justice Department and the FBI, diminishing the rhetorical power of those institutions.
“There is not going to be a white knight,” a federal law enforcement official told NBC News, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe the stance of federal authorities in the coming weeks after Election Day.
The Justice Department and FBI will focus primarily on evaluating violations of federal law, with the Justice Department saying in a statement that it has an important role to play in “deterring and combating discrimination and harassment in the elections, threats of violence against election officials and poll workers, and election fraud.”
But they are not going to position themselves in a fact-checker role that could quickly become political fodder. Even if federal authorities investigate an allegation and conclude that it has no merit, it would not be standard practice to publicly disclose it, as it is the Department of Justice’s regular practice to pursue criminal charges to speak, and not to publicly discuss uncharged conduct.
Law enforcement officials across the country said they believe the 2024 election will see a longer drumbeat of partisan rhetoric and disinformation than the 2020 election. If the race is too close to call for days or more, the potential for threats of violence and actual violence are steadily increasing.
Until voters formally cast ballots for president and vice president at state capitals on Dec. 17, multiple groups in the U.S. and abroad will try to fill the information vacuum with threatening rhetoric and disinformation, officials said.
Law enforcement officials expect windows for potential violence to narrow. Rather than growing over weeks and months as in 2020, threats of violence could flare intermittently as votes are counted and results are certified in the days to weeks after Tuesday.
While there has been no direct threat to date as results are not yet known, angry mobs quickly emerged online in the wake of the 2020 election, when right-wing organizers were able to quickly summon people to locations making false claims and conspiracy theories. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have already warned in a joint intelligence bulletin that domestic extremists who believe in election-related conspiracy theories pose the most likely threat of election-related violence.
Still, the prospect of a new January 6 seems unlikely. Security at the Capitol has increased dramatically, with January 6 itself — the day Congress meets to formally count electoral votes — designated as a National Special Security Event, bringing with it more resources. Many of the leaders of right-wing extremist groups who helped organize the attack on the Capitol are also in prison for their actions that day. Follow-up events have attracted a light crowd as other Trump supporters worry, based on baseless internet conspiracy theories, that the FBI might ensnare them.
Millions of voters still believe Trump’s lies about the 2020 election, and the likely threat landscape, as federal authorities see it, is much more likely to involve individual actors – “lone wolves” or small groups that could target polling places and state and local governments. buildings.
Despite their limitations, federal authorities have taken steps to prepare. The Department of Justice has created an Election Threats Task Force, which has focused on prosecuting people who threaten election officials, to combat an extraordinary threat environment for election workers across the country.
Garland said in a recent statement that the Justice Department’s “warning remains clear: anyone who illegally threatens an election worker, official or volunteer will face consequences,” and the Justice Department will continue to aggressively investigate and prosecute of anyone who threatens election officials. the chaotic weeks ahead.
“For our democracy to function, Americans who serve the public must be able to do their jobs without fearing for their lives,” he said.
The FBI has also set up a National Election Command post at headquarters to specifically focus on election threats, as is customary in an election year. She has conducted training and practice exercises and monitored the country for threats of possible violence, as well as social media and foreign interference.
“The command post will monitor status reports and significant complaints from FBI field offices; monitor for indicators of criminal attempts to disrupt the electoral process; identify trends; and provide guidance to FBI field offices,” the FBI said in a statement. “In addition, the command post will coordinate the FBI’s response to election-related incidents.”
Federal, state and local law enforcement agencies have been involved in a series of more than 200 tabletop exercises and training operations over the past two years in anticipation of possible Election Day and post-election scenarios – including active shootings or bomb threats. U.S. officials said plans and processes are in place to deal with numerous potential threats and other issues. One official pointed to recent firebombings at polls in the Northwest, noting that the incidents are under investigation and that potentially affected voters have been given the opportunity to fill out replacement ballots.
Two law enforcement officials expressed some concern that a federal response to serious election issues could be chaotic and involve a “hodgepodge” of various state, local and federal law enforcement agencies and local election authorities. They worried that communicating clearly and quickly with multiple entities could be challenging in a potentially chaotic or fluid situation.
Four other current and former law enforcement sources said they were concerned that disinformation and conspiracy theories could affect some parts of the law enforcement community, especially in parts of the country where Trump has significant support. The issue has been raised before. As NBC News has reported, a week after the Jan. 6 attack, a top FBI official was warned that “a significant percentage” of the bureau’s employees were “sympathetic” to the rioters who stormed the Capitol over election misinformation.
The Justice Department and the FBI have a more defined role to play in the fight against foreign interference in U.S. elections, as evidenced by recent cases federal prosecutors brought against Russian propagandists who paid right-wing, pro-Trump influencers millions of dollars to produce videos and make videos. by making clear what role China and Iran are trying to play in this year’s elections.
Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said the post-election period is a key focus for foreign adversaries, including Russia, China and Iran, and that America’s “foreign adversaries understand that that period of uncertainty and ambiguity is one is where they can sneak in to turn Americans against each other, to potentially incite violence, to stoke discord, to undermine American confidence and the legitimacy of the vote.”
A Justice Department official said there are many ongoing investigations into possible violations of election law. The official expects robust investigation and prosecution measures in the post-election period for anything that meets the legal threshold.
There will certainly be incidents and disruptions in next week’s election, Easterly said, but it is important for Americans to know that those responsible will be investigated and held accountable.
“Election officials have been preparing for this for years. They practiced for it. They trained for it. We have been working directly with them to address all these incidents and disruptions,” she said. “The process works.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
