The stock market has soared to record highs since Kamala Harris entered the presidential race in July. Will the good vibes continue if she wins the White House? The answer may differ per sector.
Fortune polled analysts and academics about which stocks could rise after a Harris win, and which companies could see their shares fall. Here are some companies to consider:
Harris and former President Donald Trump differ sharply when it comes to climate and energy policy. As vice president, Harris cast the deciding vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act. Joe Biden’s signature climate bill passed without any Republican support, and Trump has pledged to dismantle the system of tax credits and cuts, which he calls a “green new scam.”
Whether Trump could deliver on these campaign promises is unclear, but a Harris victory is likely much better news for renewables. Shares of First solar energyAmerica’s largest solar panel builder is down 16% this month amid industry volatility and election uncertainty. A Harris victory could reward investors who bought the dip.
A Harris administration could also help electric vehicle makers looking to gain ground on Elon Musk’s Tesla, especially since the EV giant’s CEO has thrown his full support behind Donald Trump. Musk’s political activism, including his public feuds with California officials, has already provided an opportunity for companies like these Rivaans to single out dissatisfied progressive customers. While Musk is seemingly betting Tesla’s future on autonomous driving, government subsidies and tax breaks are crucial to companies like Rivian’s ability to compete.
Offshore wind energy also benefits from a Harris victory. Spanish energy giant Iberdrola has invested more than $13 billion in the US and Britain over the past 12 months, boosting profits by 150% in the first nine months of the year. Its American subsidiary, Avangridis available for a modest price-earnings ratio just above 12, according to S&P Global.
Then there are less obvious choices. Defense contractor stocks like it HoneywellFor example, according to a preliminary analysis by Georgetown University’s Michael Bailey, Harris’ chances of winning have improved somewhat. That could reflect the fact that Harris is likely making a better choice to continue U.S. support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
Finally, a Harris victory could give major importers a sigh of relief. Trump’s proposals for a global tariff of at least 10% and a 60% tax on all Chinese goods would not be good news for major retailers such as Goalso a Harris win could allay the concerns currently priced into the stock.
See also: Five stocks to buy if Trump wins – and five to sell
Some analysts are highly skeptical of trading based on who takes over the Oval Office. That includes Jay Hatfield, the CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, who is much more focused on how overall tax policy, including the corporate tax rate, could impact the overall market.
But even he said financial services are at the heart of the so-called “Trump trade” because of the prospect of lighter regulation. JPMorgan Chase And Goldman Sachs These are two stocks that investors could invest in in the event of a Trump win, while a Harris win could lead to a sell-off.
However, stocks that are heavily affected by climate policy may be the most worth keeping an eye on. Just as Harris is clearly the better option for renewables, says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, companies in sectors like offshore oil, coal and foreign-built solar could be among the biggest losers.
Therefore oil drilling machine Schlumberger could be a stock to stay away from if Harris takes over the White House, Stovall said. The same goes for Consol energyhe added, one of the bigger names in the coal sector.
While a Harris administration may be friendlier than Biden’s to Big Tech, companies centered around the gig economy could be at risk, according to a Bank of America note seen by CNBC. Investors can try to get out quickly Uberfor example, if the vice president is promoted by the American people.
This story originally appeared on Fortune.com
