More than just clouds swirled as a tropical disturbance that would become Hurricane Milton formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This began its inexorable march towards a midweek attack on the west coast of Florida.
As the winds picked up, so did the familiar feelings of fear and anxiety in a state that just a week earlier was still reeling from the effects of another monster storm, Hurricane Helene. Ultimately, the densely populated cities of Tampa and St. Petersburg were spared the apocalyptic scenario that some had predicted. But elsewhere along the Gulf Coast, an unprecedented level of destruction and devastation was seen.
Together, the two deadly cyclones have so far killed about 250 people, destroyed thousands more their homes, and left millions of Florida residents and businesses without power, many of them possibly for weeks. The double blow left Florida reeling and there will be no quick recovery.
“Just when you were starting to get some semblance of normal after Helene, when things were maybe starting to stabilize, you turned around and had to deal with this other looming storm, Hurricane Milton,” said Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, Friday at another of a furious series of briefings he has held in the worst-hit areas over the past two weeks.
“Like I said, there is damage. A lot will have to be done. We didn’t see the worst-case scenario, but we were hit and we’ll have to work to get back.”
DeSantis was talking about both the immediate response to the cascading disasters and the longer-term recovery, which Florida’s experience as the nation’s most vulnerable state to hurricanes has shown will be lengthy and costly.
Even as water rescues continue and flooding from Milton continues this weekend, early estimates are already in. AccuWeather analysts calculate a preliminary total of $160 billion to $180 billion in damage and economic losses for what they say is “one of the most damaging and impactful storms in Florida history.”
By comparison, the inflation-adjusted cost of the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, Katrina, was $320 billion in 2005, the company said. Milton will be so expensive partly because of its long reach: An EF3 tornado, one of dozens that formed in the storm’s outer bands, destroyed more than 100 homes in the upscale Avenir development in Palm Beach Gardens, about 170 miles away east of where Milton came ashore. on Siesta Key.
“A loss of $225 to $250 billion from Helene and another $160 to $180 billion from Hurricane Milton amounts to almost half a trillion dollars. US GDP is $26 trillion, so this combined loss is almost 2% [of that]Joel Myers, founder and executive president of AccuWeather, said in the estimate.
According to him, the losses will mainly occur in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2025.
“That could wipe out any expected growth in the economy over that period,” he said.
There are more immediate concerns at the state level, including how Helene and Milton could influence the smooth running of next month’s general election. County elections supervisors and their staff have been assessing damage to buildings. DeSantis signed a number of executive orders after Hurricane Helene relaxed voting rules to ensure as many people as possible could cast their ballots.
“I don’t know of any offices that have been hit so hard that they’re no longer operational. I think the only thing they’re looking at right now is power. The buildings themselves are fine,” said Travis Hart, president of the Florida Supervisors of Elections organization that represents regulators in all 67 provinces.
“We have not yet collected everything, and some are now out to check their polling stations and polling stations. But I have a good feeling they will be in good shape.”
Hart said he expected DeSantis to approve the consolidation of some polling places in newly affected areas, as he did after Helene. Other measures include relaxing strict training requirements for poll workers, and allowing residents, as well as first responders and utility workers who work far from home, to switch addresses for telephone voting.
“A lot of people have been displaced, maybe their homes have been damaged, they can’t get back, and along the coast some of them have been wiped out,” Hart said.
“They can just call us and say, ‘Hey, I’m at this address right now, if you want to mail my ballot here.’ They don’t have to print a form and send it to us, just bring it in or email it.”
Hart said the state’s long history of disruptive hurricanes has taught election officials to be prepared, though he conceded that major storms in quick succession could bring a different set of challenges.
“That’s a good thing about Florida, we’ve been here before. We are kind of operating at the unprecedented, we are resilient and we will bounce back,” he said.
“But this could bring new problems. Hurricanes are like elections: they’re all different. Early reports suggest it’s not as bad as we expected, but who knows, when the full ratings come back we might have to shift gears and go in a different direction.”
Another area where experts say the hurricanes could have a significant long-term impact is Florida’s booming real estate market. Previous storms have done little to slow the steady flow of about 900 people a day moving to the sunny state, but an ongoing insurance crisis has been exacerbated by an inevitable new round of premium increases following Helene and Milton’s lead.
Analysts say it’s too early to predict how things will turn out, but even if prices rise and demand decreases, there probably won’t be a shortage of people willing to come.
“I’m sure there are people in Florida who are thinking, ‘This is it, I’m going to move,’ and people who are considering moving to Florida are thinking, ‘No, I’m not going, there are just too many hurricanes. ‘,” says Ken Johnson, professor of real estate at the University of Mississippi Business School.
“Yet mass immigration will not reverse. All past evidence points to economic growth in the area after hurricanes. There is momentum for corporate capital to come in, and people still want to retire in Florida.”
However, Johnson believes the latest disasters will put pressure on the Florida Legislature to fix the broken insurance market. Several private insurance companies have left Florida in recent years, and the number of policies from Citizens, the state-backed insurer of last resort, has skyrocketed.
“If the needle moves, it will be an event, or a series of events like we just had,” he said. “Two hurricanes in two weeks is something that might finally lead to real action. It’s something that Florida is going to have to do, and I think they’re going to do it, I just don’t know when.
