We have reached the awkward midseason point of the NFL season. Nine weeks down, nine to go. Can you believe it?
Midseason also means midseason awards! For this week’s Football 301 Playbook, I looked at each major award and gave my selection for each. From Coach of the Year to Most Valuable Player, plenty of words and nominees for each arbitrary selection (sorry, assistant coach of the year, we’ll see you in an article in a few weeks).
A reminder, as always, that is not who I think will win at the end of the season, nor who I think voters would tab as their selection. This is who I would give each award to if the season were to end today, but with maybe some notes and predictions about what’s to come ahead as well.
Onto the picks!
Offensive Player of the Year
This is between two star running backs who were free-agent acquisitions and the best wide receiver in the game. Justin Jefferson is still the driving force of a super aggressive Vikings offense. He leads the NFL in receiving, despite playing only eight games, and just his sheer presence impacts every single defense’s game plan. Even when teams do try to limit the damage that Jefferson can inflict, head coach Kevin O’Connell is still finding ways to get him the ball. Or at the very least open up gimmes for the Vikings’ ever-healthier supporting cast (Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, Jalen Nailor). The other receiver who could have made this interesting is the Houston Texans’ Nico Collins, if he would’ve stayed healthy through the first half of the year.
Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley have galvanized already strong ground games in Baltimore and Philadelphia, respectively. They sit 1 and 2 in total rushing yards, with Henry at 6.3 yards per run and Barkley at 5.9 this season (both laughably high clips, but not even tops in the NFL. The Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs leads the league at a comical 6.4 yards per carry). The Eagles’ already beefy run game has been rocket-boosted with Barkley being featured more and more in a streamlined scheme with more under center and less overall read elements in their play concepts. The Ravens quickly learned how to implement Henry and haven’t looked back. The Ravens sit on top of every offensive metric, and are toeing the line of being a historic-type offense as we sit at the halfway mark. Ravens brass had dreams of Heisman-like stiff arms happening every play when they plopped Henry next to Lamar Jackson (more on him in a bit). And it’s gone as well as the Ravens could have ever hoped, with Henry tractoring forward and Jackson running around, or launching throws over exhausted and battered defenses. And when the Ravens want to start melting defenses to put games away, they can put Henry behind 300 pounds of Pat Ricard, a bevy of tight ends and a sizable offensive line, and dare defenses to stop it. And if you’ve seen one of Henry’s long fourth-quarter runs this year, you can tell how stopping, or slowing, that brutalizing run game has gone.
Outside of already eclipsing the millennium mark on rushing yards this season, the underlying metrics love Henry this season, too. He currently has 398 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) this season, according to NextGenStats. That amount of RYOE (with RYOE being the difference between actual yards and expected yards on a given play or season) is already the most recorded by any player in NextGenStats’ entire database, which goes back to the 2016 season. Not the most per carry or most through nine weeks. The most. Period.
We expected this Ravens’ run game to be excellent. This run game and entire offense is over anyone’s expectations.
The pick: Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Defensive Player of the Year
This one was fun to pick through!
Texans defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter have been harassing overmatched offensive tackles all season. Anderson ranks eighth in pressure rate among qualifying pass rushers while Hunter ranks second, according to NextGenStats. They have both constantly harassed offenses, often unlocked even further with the Texans’ man-blitz-heavy scheme on passing downs that open up one-on-one opportunities and openings for deadly twists to create edginess up front.
Anderson has one of the quickest get-offs in the NFL (his average of 0.73 seconds is third) and he has been phenomenal against the run, too, something that has carried from college at Alabama and into his young career. He has the fourth-highest stuff rate among all qualifying pass rushers (Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, another honorable mention, leads all defenders in the category as he gives out one of his weekly ass-kickings).
New York Giants DT Dexter Lawrence carries every-week focus from offenses, making them find ways to double-team him when they throw the ball or exclusively attack on the outside in the run game to just bypass him altogether.
Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II was building a phenomenal case before suffering a concussion on the first play against the Chargers in Week 6 and the Broncos’ defense getting de-pantsed by the Ravens last week. I wouldn’t rule out his chances to rally in the second half and try to become the first cornerback to win Defensive Player of the Year since Stephon Gilmore in 2019. Niners linebacker Fred Warner is another off-ball defender with a case for this award. Warner has been playing the best football of his career, mostly because of his development, but also because of what he’s had to shore up around him without Dre Greenlaw and while the 49ers figure out their reconfigured personnel. And Warner’s 49ers teammate, Nick Bosa, has continued to rack up pressures while the Cincinnati Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson has been doing the same despite the rest of the Bengals’ defense floundering around him.
T.J. Watt is the current betting favorite for the award, and has been his usual productive self for a hard-hitting Steelers unit. As usual, Watt has been filling up the box score: 6.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and eight stuffs (tackles for loss or zero yards gained). His pressure numbers are more middling, but Watt has always been a supreme closer who gets attention from offenses and wrecks games when he doesn’t get that focus.
That’s a lot of nominees! And that’s without even mentioning Aidan Hutchinson, who was putting right tackles in the Steiner Recliner every single week before going down with a season-ending injury. There are so many deserving cases, too! I, instead, went with Watt’s division rival, who is also the reigning winner in this award. Call me unoriginal or point at the Browns’ defensive step back this season, but Myles Garrett has been just as devastating, perhaps even more so, than his previous award-winning season. Garrett has seven sacks, with a couple of forced fumbles. And while he’s never been a player who truly loves to defend the run, he’s turned in more effective down-to-down play in that area this season. But Garrett is out there to affect the passer, and while his sack number is on pace for his usual rate, the eye test and Garrett’s underlying pressure numbers are indicating an even more disruptive season than usual for Garrett.
Garrett is recording a pressure rate of 21.5% this season. It not only leads the NFL and would be his career-best, and the third-highest pressure rate by any qualifying defender since 2016, according to NextGenStats. The only two players with a higher rate for a full season were Micah Parsons in his rookie season, when the Cowboys still had thoughts of playing him as an off-ball defender (Parsons had 292 pass rush snaps that entire season; Garrett is already at 223), and pass rush specialist Bryce Huff last year with the Jets (Huff played a total of 460 snaps in the entire season, Garrett is already at 396).
The Browns were sabotaged this season with injuries and a commitment to the worst-playing quarterback in the league. Their defense has dropped off after reaching wild highs last season, but that hasn’t been because of Garrett, who is still playing like the best defender in the league and gets my pick for midway Defensive Player of the Year.
The pick: Myles Garrett, Edge, Cleveland Browns
Offensive Rookie of the Year
There are a ton of keepers in this wide receiver class (Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr., Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman) who all look like they’re ready for even more going forward. None have put up overwhelming numbers to give them the nod. Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is second in the NFL in receptions with 57 and is already a mismatch nightmare for teams. He’ll have a new play-caller in Las Vegas, but Bowers will be the focus of the attack no matter who is dialing it up.
But can this award winner be anyone other than Jayden Daniels? He has been the calm triggerman of the Washington Commanders’ up-tempo attack. The speedy signal-caller has been accurate, effective, constantly making good decisions (which usually means he’ll run by the defense another time), and one of the better-playing quarterbacks in the NFL during his rookie campaign.
Daniels sits at or near the top of numerous efficiency metrics in the NFL. He’s been great with his ball placement on the outside and is already one of the most dangerous runners in the league, at any position. He currently leads all rookies in rushing yards with a healthy dose of designed runs and scrambles alike (the Commanders lead the NFL in third-and-long conversion rate, mostly because of Daniels’ ability to take advantage of deep dropping coverage. This was exactly what Buddy Ryan pictured with Randall Cunningham). I don’t want to dive too much into it because I’m hoping to write a deeper dive on Daniels and the Commanders’ offense next week (spoilers). But Daniels’ advanced metrics are gushing and it couldn’t be going any better for him and the Commanders. There are still things to work on, and other quarterbacks and players might ramp up in the second half, but Daniels has looked like a franchise-changer already.
The pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Defensive Rookie of the Year
This award has started to heat up over the past few weeks, and should be one of the more intriguing ones to track over the second half of the season. The Eagles’ young defensive back pair of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have led a surging Philadelphia defense; Mitchell has already been a winning player, with stretches of locking down the offense’s left side (over the past four games, Mitchell has allowed yardage totals of 23, 25, 15, 10 as the nearest defender). DeJean has been a stabilizing force for the Eagles as their primary slot defender, with some huge plays on fourth down in each of the past two games and other nice coverage moments.
There are other players who have had standout games, but have battled injuries or standard young-player inconsistencies. T’Vondre Sweat has flashed dominance against the run in Tennessee, forming a nasty interior duo with Jeffery Simmons. A healthier Byron Murphy II helps the Seahawks average nearly a yard per play better against the run when on the field. Edgerrin Cooper has looked like a keeper at linebacker that the Packers desperately need. Los Angeles Rams defensive end Braden Fiske has detonated overmatched interior linemen, firing off the snap with explosive hands and a motor to finish plays. He terrorized the Seahawks in Week 9 for two sacks and a handful of other rowdy snaps.
My pick, though, is Fiske’s former Florida State and current Rams running partner Jared Verse. He wins with strength and physicality, with a motor that’s stuck in top gear. He takes on tight ends blocking him like it’s an insult and can make quarterbacks uncomfortable with his bullrush first (and second) pass rush style. And while there are times you wish Verse would attempt something to follow-up and finish on his snaps, that at-you style is still disruptive. He easily leads rookies in pressures (39) and pressure rate (a blistering, and tidy, 20%). He sits fourth overall in pressure rate among all qualifying defenders, while also having a higher stuff rate (tackles that led to gains of zero or negative yards) than anyone ranked above him in pressures. So while Verse has “only” 3.5 sacks and still has more nuance to develop with his game, he is still impacting plays on an every-down basis. This race might get more interesting (and tight) over the next couple of months, but Verse has made a strong underlying case to get the nod over the first nine weeks.
The pick: Jared Verse, Edge, Los Angeles Rams
Coach of the Year
A silly award made sillier because I’m giving it out at the halfway point of the season in a league with weekly wild swings. The Broncos’ Sean Payton and Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh have morphed their teams into hard-hitting and well-coached attacks that have the AFC West feeling much more feisty. Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings have hit snags in recent weeks, but still stack up as one of the better teams in the NFC with an offense and defense that challenge opponents to be on the top of their games. Just like before, the Bills under Sean McDermott keep winning despite new faces on defense. And Mike Tomlin is still doing the whole Mike Tomlin thing in Pittsburgh: Winning games despite shuffling his quarterbacks (apparently on his own whim), dealing with line injuries, and the occasional George Pickens flying elbow drop.
Dan Quinn has brought his infectious personality and energy to Washington and gotten instant results. The good vibes are palpable when you watch this team. The Commanders sit on top of the NFC East and while they’ve had some miraculous moments, like a Hail Mary against the Bears, it hasn’t been all close games. They also currently have the third-biggest point differential in the entire NFL.
The team that sits first in point differential and DVOA (via FTNFantasy), and by sizable margins, is the Detroit Lions. The Lions are a complete team with a personality that matches their tough, aggressive (and cerebral) head coach Dan Campbell. They feature a balanced offense that makes defenses pick their poison: either get bludgeoned in the face by the best offensive line in the NFL or load the box and let one of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s exquisite designs gash you wide open. This selective aggression, along with constant effectiveness on the ground or through the air, is coupled with the fact that they don’t make mistakes despite keeping their foot on the pedal (Johnson was going for the record for trick plays against the Cowboys). Their defense has also emulated that aggression and at-you style under coordinator Aaron Glenn. They’re a slog to run the ball against and constantly bring the fight to offenses, either with their front seven physicality or Glenn unleashing his feisty cornerbacks in man coverage.
Even their special teams units are some of the best in the league (the Lions rank first in special teams DVOA along with being third in offense and defense)! Fakes are always a possibility. Big returns, too This is a complete team that keeps the opposition on their toes, no matter the phase of the game.
This Lions franchise keeps evolving and getting better from a feisty pushover in Campbell’s first year to an absolute juggernaut now. The Lions are the best team in the NFL (at worst second behind the Chiefs) and in the true elite class of the NFL. It’s only halfway through the season, but this is Campbell’s vision reaching its final form.
The pick: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Most Valuable Player
With apologies to the other forces of nature who play quarterback in the AFC (Josh Allen is my midway runner-up, with Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert rounding out the top five). The reigning MVP is currently making his previous award-winning seasons look like quaint indie movies compared to the $200 million blockbuster season that he is currently producing.
Boxscore stats? Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has them. Touchdown rate, traditional QB rating, yards per attempt (in an adjusted form or not), there’s Jackson at the top of the leaderboard. He’s currently on pace to nearly hit 4,500 yards as a passer and first in QBR.
Advanced stats? There’s Jackson on top. He’s first in dropback success rate this season (and second in throw success rate, this isn’t just scrambles inflating that number), his 0.35 EPA per dropback would be tied for the second-highest mark by any QB since 2011, behind only Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 season and in line with Peyton Manning in 2013 and Rodgers in 2014.
His interception rate (0.8%) is currently half of his career average and among the lowest in the league. Despite several new faces along the offensive line, he’s taking sacks at the seventh-lowest rate (4.85%) in the NFL (third-lowest among QBs who have started seven or more games) and well below his career rate of over 7%.
Jackson has long been underrated as a passer, from college to even when he was winning his MVPs. So what was already a standout trait has elevated to an even higher level. Again, a player who has won two MVPs at QB has gotten significantly better as a passer. You’ll never see deeper dig routes than the Ravens run because of Jackson’s arm strength and downfield accuracy, which has become even further weaponized with the play of Zay Flowers and a finally healthy Rashod Bateman.
And we haven’t even mentioned Jackson’s rushing, where Jackson remains as devastating as ever and has another chance to crack 1,000 yards once this season wraps up. He’s also averaging over 6 yards per carry and has more rushing first downs than Aaron Jones, Breece Hall or D’Andre Swift.
On the team side, the Ravens have six wins, despite a step back on defense (and by Justin Tucker) and Jackson currently leads the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, if you’re into that.
There has been some outstanding play from quarterbacks in the NFL this season. From the bevy of playmakers in the AFC to Jared Goff’s efficiency, Matthew Stafford’s fireballing, Kyler Murray’s renaissance and the emergence of Jayden Daniels. But Jackson has still stood above them.
The pick: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
