How good are Lando Norris’s chances of overtaking Max Verstappen for the Formula 1 title?
Norris enters the United States Grand Prix weekend 52 points behind Verstappen, with six Grand Prix races and three sprint races to go. The USGP is the first of the three remaining sprint weekends, with a maximum of 34 points. The winner of the sprint race gets eight (second place gets seven, third gets six and so on), while the winner of Sunday’s Grand Prix (Noon, ABC) can earn 25 points with an extra point for the fastest lap .
Norris is also the favorite to take victory on Sunday. He is +100 to win the race at BetMGM. Verstappen, last year’s race winner, is the No. 2 favorite at +400, while Norris’ McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is at +500.
If Norris wins the sprint race and the Grand Prix while setting the fastest lap and Verstappen finishes second in both, he will score just nine points on the three-time champion. That’s quite a chunk of points. But it wouldn’t be enough to catch Verstappen. Thanks to Daniel Ricciardo’s fast lap at the end of the most recent race in Singapore, Verstappen can still win the title by finishing second behind Norris in every remaining sprint and Grand Prix.
That’s why he’s still -190 to win the championship at BetMGM. Norris’s chances may also be a bit exaggerated. Norris is +140 to win the title. But for that he needs some pushback from Verstappen, while avoiding his own problems. And that may be too much to ask.
Since Formula 1 implemented the current points structure in 2010, a driver has overcome a deficit with six races remaining only twice. And that driver was Sebastian Vettel.
In 2010, Vettel was third in the standings and 31 points behind Lewis Hamilton after finishing 15th at the Belgian Grand Prix. Vettel finished fourth and second in the next two races before winning three of the last four races of that season. And it was still an incredibly exciting points race.
Vettel entered the final race of the 2010 season 15 points behind Fernando Alonso and seven points behind Red Bull teammate Mark Webber. He scored pole for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and led 40 of the 55 laps, while Alonso finished seventh and Webber eighth. That was just enough for Vettel to take a four-point victory over Alonso.
Two years later, Vettel followed Alonso again with six races to go. After a win in Singapore, Vettel cut Alonso’s points lead to 29 with six races remaining. This time he erased that deficit much faster. Vettel’s win in Singapore was his first of four in a row and he took the points lead from Alonso after the third win. After a victory in the Korean Grand Prix, Vettel was six points ahead of Alonso.
He never lost the points lead after that, although Alonso came close in the season finale. Alonso finished second in Brazil, while Vettel finished sixth. Vettel went on to win his third title in a row by just three points.
In each of the remaining twelve seasons, the driver who held the points lead with six races remaining has won the title. These include Nico Rosberg (+8) in 2016 and Verstappen (+6) during the iconic 2021 season.
That statistic bodes well for Verstappen. He has a significant advantage, even though Norris currently has more speed. But unless you’re a Verstappen fan, you can at least take solace in the fact that F1 appears to have a real title race on its hands. Two years ago, Verstappen had a 116-point lead at this point in the season and took the title with six races remaining in 2023.
