The last part of the season has arrived. The AFC playoff race is about to begin, the NFC is duking it out and there are a host of teams waiting to be officially eliminated from the playoffs.
This week’s Four Verts kick off with a division that is the very definition of duking it out.
NFC North lives up to the hype
Entering the season, all four teams in the NFC North had reason to be hopeful. Three of them still do, with the Lions, Packers and Vikings each among the elite in the NFL this season. All three of these teams will likely make the playoffs, barring some catastrophe in recent weeks. The Lions lead this division as one of the best teams in the NFL, but the Packers’ chances as a division winner could increase with a huge game Thursday night in Detroit. The Bears are still having a Bears-like season, but the rest of the division is ready to make noise in the playoffs.
The Lions have simply been an incredibly dominant team this season, especially on offense. According to TruMedia, the Lions’ offense ranks first in success rate (48.6%), points per drive (2.84), first downs and touchdowns per play (6.44), dropback success rate (53.1 %) and rush attempts (46.9%). They also rank in the top five most expected point stats, converting 45.7% of their third downs. They’ve combined competent quarterback play, arguably the best running back duo in the league and a rock-star offensive line to mow down opposing defenses. Ben Johnson has immense talent to tap into, which makes his job as a play-caller much easier.
Their defense, which has been good this year, faces a tough test against the Packers, who boast an offense that has been among the league’s best over the last month of the season. Since Week 9, the Packers rank first in yards per play (6.6), fourth in points per drive (2.76) and third in dropback success rate (51.8%). This offense plays like a machine and the defense, while inconsistent from bottom to bottom, gets enough turnovers to the point where they consistently give the ball back to an offense that is on fire. At 9-3, they are still alive for the division title and a high seed in the playoffs if they can play their cards right and get a little lucky.
Minnesota sits in between with a 10-2 record as one of the upstart teams in the league that may well outperform their expectations. Their defense was one of the best in the NFL this year and Sam Darnold was steady enough to lead the offense to a potential playoff berth. They still have one more game to play against the Packers and Lions (and Bears) before the end of the season, but Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores deserve a lot of credit for raising expectations in Minnesota, even if their staff may not be . as familiar as what the Lions and Packers have. It’s hard to say if this is a true Super Bowl contender or not, but their defense will certainly give them a chance in January.
Then there are the bears. Right now they’re just trying to get to 2025, which is a fair thought to take their masterclass on Thanksgiving.
Matt Eberflus may have gone out in the worst possible case so a coach could go out
Man. It’s been about a week since the Bears’ unprofessional blunder when they lost to the Lions on Thanksgiving, and it’s still unbelievable. The Bears had no choice but to fire beleaguered third-year head coach Matt Eberflus after this loss, but it’s still hard not to be impressed with how messy the end of his coaching stint was — and it was partially the fault of the Bears through the end of it all.
The timeout blunder is talked about ad nauseam, but in reality it is just one of the craziest unforced errors you can encounter at any level of football. The Bears, trailing 23-20, had a timeout at the edge of field goal range with about 30 seconds left on the running clock and a timeout in their back pocket. The optimal way to play it would have been to play again, gain some yards, call a timeout, and then try to kick the field goal. However, the Bears players never really finished on time, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams took too long to get things going and the Bears found themselves running out of time. With just six seconds left, Williams snapped the ball, threw a prayer to Rome Odunze, which landed incomplete and ended the game. Sloppy play by the players on the field, there is no doubt about that.
Still, the timeout should have been used. They could have made a tough field goal, which is certainly better than what they did. Once Eberflus saw that the original plan had completely failed, the timeout simply had to be burned. No discussion. Call timeout. After a six-match slide from 4-2 to 4-8, with this latest failure so pronounced, Eberflus had to leave. That part makes sense.
What didn’t make sense is how the Bears handled Eberflus’ shooting. For whatever reason, Eberflus was able to hold a media conference with reporters the Friday after the game, where he said he turned his attention to preparing for the 49ers. Shortly afterwards it was reported that Eberflus had been fired, which seemed in a bit of bad taste. Why let him speak about the mistake if he doesn’t get a chance to correct it? After the match, just let him go and move on. That part was a little weird.
The Bears’ season has turned into a festival of shame, which is fair for the way some of their games have ended. Their season is certainly over, but at least they have a strong foundation to develop for the new head coach. It could be worse, you could be the Raiders.
Brock Bowers should be the offensive rookie of the year
Reject the quarterback mind hive! Don’t let the media make you think they are the only players on the field! There have been a few rookie quarterbacks who have played well for their experience level and deserve credit for their performances this year, but there is one newcomer who is playing like one of the best players in the entire NFL: Raiders tight end Brock Bowers.
Bowers was sensational and should be the hands-down favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year as one of the best tight ends in the league. According to data from TruMedia, Bowers is arguably the most productive tight end in the league, especially when you consider his target volume (and that he’s basically the only scary offensive threat the Raiders have). Of all tight ends with at least 40 targets this season, Bowers ranks first in receptions (84), yards (884), targets (113) and targets per route (0.28). He also ranks fourth in both yards per route run (2.18) and first downs and touchdowns per route (10.6%). That’s pretty awesome! Again, not just for a rookie, but that makes him one of the most productive tight ends in the league.
This is not a situation that is particularly conducive to success for a novice player. The Raiders have had a turnstile at quarterback with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. The Raiders are coming off one of the worst games in the league this season. Davante Adams was traded early in the season, leaving a huge goal vacuum for the Raiders. Bowers immediately had to be the guy to make the Raiders offense competitive this season, and he has been.
Overall, Bowers’ 884 receiving yards rank fourth in the league and he leads the entire league in receptions. He’s having a historically great season at the center of the Raiders offense. Yes, the Raiders offense is bad, but without his presence they would be completely unstoppable. At this rate, he’s on pace to have 1,252 receiving yards as a rookie, which would shatter the rookie yards record for a tight end set by Mike Ditka in 1961 (1,076). He is also on track to join Ditka and Kyle Pitts as the only tight ends in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards as a rookie.
If this isn’t Rookie of the Year worthy, cut the price. Bowers being on a bad team shouldn’t be used against him here. Everyone knows the Raiders’ problems run deep and that tight ends ultimately have limited impact on victory if they are the only top players on the team. He should be the leader for this award and win it hands down if he can keep it up.
The Raiders didn’t think too much about their draft strategy and went straight to ‘Best Player Available’ and nabbed an absolute superstar in the making. At least they did one thing right!
What exactly are the Chiefs this year?
Let’s make it short: doubt the Chiefs at your peril. They’ve been disappointing considering the absurd standard they’ve set for themselves in recent years, but this is still one of the best teams in the league. I care about everyone who takes the time to read this column and I would hate to see them incur the wrath of Patrick Mahomes as the Chiefs battle and claw their way to home field advantage for the playoffs.
Ignore the scraping of mediocre to downright terrible teams. Ignore the Bills they beat earlier in the season. You know what’s going on with this team. The data doesn’t matter. Just wait until the playoffs before you even think about questioning what this team is capable of. Mahomes reads everything. Make sure your team is safe and don’t add fire to the fuel.
