Three more games! Each week at this point in the season takes on a greater sense of importance as the offseason plans begin to take shape and the playoff picture grows stronger. This week’s Four Verts will face a team that likely blew their shot at the playoffs in a comically clumsy manner, but we’ll start with teams looking forward to the NFL Draft.
The race for the No. 1 pick in NFL Draft is impossibly sad
If it seems like there’s no juice in this year’s playoff race, that’s because it is.
With three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff teams are just about done, save for a few battles within the NFC West and NFC South. That’s because the bottom end of the NFL is tragically bad and unhappy this year, with more teams than usual hanging around two or three wins at this point in the season. That amount of inequality has led to a deadlocked race for the first overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, with seven teams in action at this point in the season. As many people noted long before the season started, this doesn’t seem like a great lineup at the top, but someone has to make these choices.
There are currently nine teams with four or fewer wins, more than double the number of teams that had four or fewer wins this time last year (four). Normally there are five or six teams with really bad results in Week 15, so it’s unusual to have more than a quarter of the league in this area given recent trends. There has been a combination of poor play and adversity that has gotten some of these teams to this point.
Just like any other year, there are some teams that really stink. The Raiders and Giants are currently in the lead for the top pick with hard-earned 2-12 records. No one considers these teams unlucky. The Panthers, Jaguars and Titans likely fall into this bucket as well. Then there are the Browns, who spent the first half of the season trying to pretend Deshaun Watson was a starting-caliber quarterback before becoming a bit more competitive with Jameis Winston. Then there are the Jets, who have performed like an average team statistically this season, but have been too sloppy in crunch time and haven’t been able to close out many performances.
And the bears. Yes, the bears.
The combination of incompetence and bad luck has teams chasing the No. 1 overall pick in a season where there seems to be no clear direction. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward are the leading quarterbacks off the board, but Heisman winner Travis Hunter is considered by many to be the best player overall. There’s still a while to go before real talent evaluations of draft prospects begin, but there should be a wide range of opinions on who goes where.
With five teams with 3-11 records, it is difficult to predict where these teams will land. That’s strangely intriguing if you’re someone who likes to splash in sewer puddles, which is where too many teams live this year.
Colts ruined their postseason chances in the worst way possible
This is the point of the season where fringe playoff teams make their final stand. Sometimes that doesn’t go as planned, as the Colts showed in their messy 31-13 loss to the Broncos that dashed their playoff hopes.
In a game where the Broncos flopped on offense, the Colts had a chance to pick up a big win on the road to boost their playoff chances, but they were completely unprepared for this moment. A strong defensive performance got them nowhere as their offense repeatedly made critical mistakes.
Denver pulled off an 18-point victory despite averaging a paltry 3.2 yards per play on offense. According to TruMedia, the Colts held the Broncos to just 1.6 points per drive and a 30.8% success rate on the day. The Broncos offense has been productive as of late, so the Colts going out and holding the opposition on just two touchdown drives, which didn’t happen until the fourth quarter, should be viewed as an accomplishment. Indianapolis’ defense largely played a role in this, but the offense ridiculously decided to play saboteur.
First, running back Jonathan Taylor made the mistake no player should ever make again. He sprinted untouched into the end zone for a touchdown that would have given the Colts a 20-7 lead in the third quarter, but dropped the ball before crossing the plane. A potential touchdown turned into a touchback for the Broncos out of sheer carelessness and the Colts never scored again. A 20-7 lead could have been enough to lean on the run game and seal a win, especially considering how Bo Nix and the Broncos’ offense struggled.
The Colts’ second critical failure was caused in part by Taylor’s fumble. They fell behind 17-13 early in the fourth quarter after kicking away a handful of drives after the fumble — meaning they had to start throwing. Uh-oh. Indianapolis’ passing game was essentially non-existent for the first three quarters. Anthony Richardson was averaging 3 yards per dropback prior to the fourth quarter, so the Colts reached out for a dangerous ploy to jump-start their offense.
In an attempt to execute a double pass or screen, the Colts had rookie wide receiver AD Mitchell throw a pass across the field to Richardson on a trick play – except Mitchell took his time getting ready for the throw. By the time he found the laces of the ball, looked up from the ball to the play and loaded up to throw, Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto was in the perfect spot to snatch the ball out of the air and take it back home. to take. .
For example, the Colts trailed 24-13 after two huge plays that could have been avoided with a little more detail. Another Denver touchdown closed the game and the Colts fell to 6-8 on the season, making it incredibly unlikely they make the playoffs unless the teams ahead of them collapse in the final three games. The Colts end the season with winning games – against Titans, Giants and Jaguars – but the hole they are in seems too big.
If they miss out on the postseason, the Colts have no one to blame but themselves.
Josh Allen has become a supernova
The Bills have a super weapon on their team that could very well carry them to the Super Bowl. What Josh Allen is doing right now can’t be talked about enough. Entering the final stretch of the season, he has wrested the MVP frontrunner title from Lamar Jackson with a series of ballsy performances. He’s been so dominant that the Bills could outlast their defense that has fallen apart of late and go on the run that they’ve come that close a handful of times in the Josh Allen era.
There have been a lot of incredible numbers from Allen over the past three weeks. Two really stand out.
Zero bags.
Zero turnover.
In three football matches! For a player who spent the early part of his career being reckless with the ball, it was remarkable to see the level of precision he now plays with. It’s not that Allen has reverted to being an ultra-conservative passerby; he’s still the same gunslinger and risk-taker he’s always been, but he’s just not lacking. This is the pinnacle of what he is capable of. A powerhouse who can place the ball anywhere on the pitch, which becomes completely overwhelming when there is no negative play.
Allen has also been responsible for 14 touchdowns in the past three games. Fourteen touchdowns, zero turnovers, zero sacks. That level of efficiency has allowed the Bills to score 40 points in back-to-back games and at least 35 points in three consecutive games. During this stretch in which Allen has resembled a character from ancient mythology, the Bills are averaging a blistering 4.03 points per drive — for reference, elite offenses normally hover around 3 points per drive. According to TruMedia, the Bills score a touchdown on 85.7% of their red zone drives and rank first in expected points added per play (0.39), expected points added per dropback (0.51) and expected points added per rush (0.23). That’s damn good.
It’s not just about the ruthless efficiency, but also about the way these statistics are collected. Allen’s presence on the field is always felt. Whether it’s throwing a dime on the run or accelerating through a secondary, Allen isn’t a passenger in the Bills’ success – he is. the driving force. Because the Bills have scored 40 points in two straight games, their defense has also given up 40 points in those games. Allen will have to continue doing his best Atlas impersonation as the postseason approaches, but doubting his ability to do that seems foolhardy at this point.
Buffalo still has a long shot at being the No. 1 pick barring some help from Kansas City, but if this is what Allen is going to be, an impossibly high bar to be sure, then they might not need a first-round pick. bye.
What. Wash. That. Seriously, what was that?
The Bengals and Titans played one of the most bizarre games of all time. Cincinnati ultimately won 37-27, but the road to victory produced a crazy game that should be immortalized for how damn sloppy it was. For those who missed it, here’s what you need to know.
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There were 10 turnovers in this game. Ten! Will Levis lost a fumble and threw three interceptions on just twelve passing attempts before being pulled for Mason Rudolph, who also threw an interception. Joe Burrow threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, Tony Pollard lost a fumble and Bengals safety Jordan Battle dropped the ball before he could score Pollard’s lost fumble.
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Speaking of Levis, he finished the game with a Quarterback Rating (ESPN’s version, not the classic passer rating) of 1.1 out of 100. That essentially means that if that performance from Levis were replicated by an average NFL team, they would win 1.1% of the win. time. That seems high considering the amount of damage he did in so few shots.
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There were a total of 26 penalties for 223 yards in this game. Let that sink in.
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According to TruMedia, the Titans had the highest offensive success rate of the season, with 54.8% of their plays adding positive value. Despite the six turnovers, they still averaged 2.45 points per drive in this game, which is about average for the Philadelphia Eagles this season.
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Tennessee committed turnovers on 54.5% of their drives in this game, which makes the fact that they scored 27 points somewhat impressive.
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If anyone was desperate enough to get Levis in a fantasy playoff game this week, congratulations on your -4.44 points.
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Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard caught one of Burrow’s three touchdown passes, but injured his PCL during the game and will likely be out for the remainder of the season.
Bengal Titans. The best time that no one wants to have again.
