Three more games! Each week at this point in the season takes on a greater sense of importance as the offseason plans begin to take shape and the playoff picture grows stronger. This week’s Four Verts will face a team that likely blew their shot at the playoffs in a comically clumsy manner, but we’ll start with teams looking forward to the NFL Draft.
The race for the No. 1 pick in NFL Draft is impossibly sad
If it seems like this year’s playoff race is lacking some steam, that’s because it is. With three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff teams are just about done, save for a few battles within the NFC West and NFC South. That’s because the bottom end of the NFL is tragically bad and unhappy this year, with more teams than usual hanging around two or three wins at this point in the season. That amount of disparity has created a deadlocked race for the first overall pick this year seven teams in action at this point in the season. The funny thing is, as many people pointed out long before the season started, this doesn’t seem like a great draft at the top, but someone has to make these picks.
There are currently nine teams with four or fewer wins, more than double the number of teams that had four or fewer wins this time last year (four). Normally there are five or six teams with really bad results in Week 15, so to have more than a quarter of the league in this space is actually unusual for recent trends. There’s just been a combination of bad play and adversity that has gotten some of these teams to this point.
Just like any other year, there are some teams that really stink. The Raiders and Giants are currently in the lead for the top pick with hard-earned 2-12 records. No one considers these teams unlucky. The Panthers, Jaguars and Titans likely fall into this bucket as well. Then there are the Browns, who just spent the first half of the season trying to pretend that Deshaun Watson was a starting-caliber quarterback before becoming a bit more competitive with Jameis Winston. Then there are the Jets. who have performed statistically as an average team this season, but have just been way too sloppy in crunch time and haven’t been able to close off many performances.
And the bears. Yes, the bears.
The combination of incompetence and bad luck has teams chasing the No. 1 overall pick in a season where there seems to be no clear direction. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward are the leading quarterbacks off the board, but Heisman winner Travis Hunter is considered by many to be the best player overall. There’s still a while to go before real evaluations of the draft prospects begin, but there should be a wide range of opinions on who goes where.
With five teams with 3 to 11 records, it’s hard to predict where these teams will land, but that’s strangely intriguing if you’re someone who likes to splash in sewer puddles – where too many teams are staying this year.
Colts ruined their postseason chances in the worst way possible
This is the point of the season where fringe playoff teams make their final stand. Sometimes that doesn’t go as planned, as the Colts showed in their messy 31-13 loss to the Broncos that dashed their playoff hopes.
In a game where the Broncos simply flopped on offense, the Colts had a real chance to pick up a big win on the road to boost their playoff chances, but they just weren’t prepared for this moment at all. A strong defensive performance got them nowhere as they continued to shoot themselves in the foot toe by toe.
Denver managed an 18-point win despite averaging a paltry 3.2 yards per play on offense. According to TruMedia, the Colts held Denver’s offense to just 1.6 points per drive and a 30.8% success rate on the day. The Broncos offense has been productive as of late, so going out and holding them to just two touchdown drives, which didn’t happen until the fourth quarter, has to be viewed as an accomplishment. Indianapolis’ defense largely did its part in this, but the offense decided to play saboteur in a truly ridiculous manner.
First, running back Jonathan Taylor made the mistake no football player should ever make again. He sprinted untouched toward the end zone for a touchdown that would have put the Colts up 20-7 in the third quarter, but dropped the ball before actually crossing the plane. A potential touchdown turned into a touchback for the Broncos out of sheer carelessness and the Colts never scored again. A 20-7 lead might have been enough to lean on the run game and close out a win, especially considering how Nix and the Broncos offense were struggling up until that point.
Their second critical failure was caused in part by Taylor’s fumble. They fell behind 17-13 early in the fourth quarter after kicking away a handful of drives after the fumble — meaning they had to start throwing. Uh oh. Indianapolis’ passing game was essentially non-existent through the first three quarters of the game. Anthony Richardson was averaging three yards per dropback prior to the fourth quarter, so the Colts reached into a dangerous bag of tricks to jump-start their offense.
In an attempt to execute a double pass or screen, the Colts had rookie wide receiver AD Mitchell throw a pass across the field to Richardson on a trick play – except Mitchell took his time getting ready for the throw. By the time he found the laces of the ball, looked up from the ball to the play and loaded up to throw, Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto was in the perfect spot to snatch the ball out of the air and return it to the ball. house.
For example, the Colts trailed 24-13 after two huge plays that could have been avoided with a little more detail. Another Denver touchdown closed the game and the Colts fell to 6-8 on the season, making it incredibly unlikely they make the playoffs unless the teams ahead of them just collapse in the final three games. It’s just an excruciating way to end the season. You can’t blame anyone but yourself.
Josh Allen has become a supernova
The Bills have a super weapon on their team that could very well carry them to a Super Bowl appearance. What Josh Allen is doing right now can’t be talked about enough. Entering the final stretch of the season, he has wrested the MVP frontrunner title from Lamar Jackson with a series of ballsy performances. He’s been so dominant that the Bills could be able to outlast their defense that has fallen apart of late and go on the run that they’ve been that close a handful of times in the Josh Allen era.
There have been a lot of incredible numbers from Allen over the past three weeks, but there are two that really stand out. Zero bags. Zero turnover. In three football matches! For a player who spent the early part of his career being reckless with the ball, it was remarkable to see the level of precision he now plays with. It’s not that Allen has reverted to being an ultra-conservative passerby; he’s still the same gunslinger and risk-taker he’s always been, but he’s just not lacking. This is the pinnacle of what he is capable of. A powerhouse who can place the ball anywhere on the pitch, which becomes completely overwhelming when there is no negative play.
Allen has also been responsible for 14 touchdowns in the past three games. Fourteen touchdowns, zero turnovers, zero sacks. That level of efficiency has allowed the Bills to score 40 points in back-to-back games and at least 35 points in three consecutive games. During this stretch in which Allen has resembled a character from ancient mythology, the Bills are averaging a blistering 4.03 points per drive — for reference, elite offenses normally hover around three points per drive. According to TruMedia, the Bills score a touchdown on 85.7% of their redzone drives and rank first in expected points added per play (0.39), expected points added per dropback (0.51) and expected points added per rush (0.23). That’s damn good.
It’s not just about the ruthless efficiency, but also about the way these statistics are collected. Allen’s presence on the field is always felt. Whether it’s throwing a dime on the run or accelerating through a secondary, Allen is clearly not a passenger in the Bills’ success – he is. the driving force. Because the Bills offense has scored 40 points in two straight games, their defense has also given up 40 points in those games. Allen will have to continue doing his best Atlas impersonation as the postseason approaches, but doubting his ability to do that seems foolhardy at this point.
Buffalo still faces a bid to become No. 1, barring some help from Kansas City, but if this is what Allen is going to end up with, an impossibly high bar for sure, then they might not even need a first-round bye . .
What. Wash. That. Seriously, what was that? The Bengals and Titans played one of the most bizarre football games of all time. Cincinnati ultimately won 37-27, but their road to victory produced a crazy game that should be immortalized for how damn sloppy it was. For those who missed it, here’s what you need to know.
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There were 10 turnovers in this game. Ten! Will Levis lost a fumble and threw three interceptions on just twelve passing attempts before being pulled for Mason Rudolph, who also threw an interception. Joe Burrow threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, Tony Pollard lost a fumble and Bengals safety Jordan Battle dropped the ball before he could score Pollard’s lost fumble.
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Speaking of Levis, he finished the game with a Quarterback Rating (ESPN’s version, not the classic passer rating) of 1.1 out of 100. That essentially means that if that performance from Levis were to be repeated on an average NFL team, they would win 1.1% of the matches. the time. That seems high considering the amount of damage he did in so few shots.
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There were a total of 26 penalties for 223 yards in this game. Let that sink in.
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According to TruMedia, the Titans had the highest offensive success rate of the season, with 54.8% of their plays adding positive value. Despite the six turnovers, they still averaged 2.45 points per drive in this game, which is about average for the Philadelphia Eagles this season.
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Tennessee committed turnovers on 54.5% of their drives in this game, which makes the fact that they managed to score 27 points somewhat impressive.
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If anyone was desperate enough to land Will Levis in a fantasy playoff game this week, congratulations on your -4.44 points.
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Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard caught one of Burrow’s three touchdown passes, but injured his PCL during the game and will likely be out the rest of the season.
Bengal Titans. The best time that no one wants to have again.
