Midseason is a good time to reflect on what has happened so far in the year. This week’s Four Verts column explores some of the surprises and disappointments of the 2024 NFL season, starting with the Washington Commanders.
Surprise: The Commander’s Strike is the Biggest Breakout Unit of 2024
There is no bigger surprise this season than that the Washington Commanders have one of the downright best offenses in the league. Just months after taking second place overall, the Commanders have turned their fortunes around and appear to be well ahead of schedule. If they had just committed league-average offense, that would have been a huge win after where they were at the end of last season. To boast an offense capable of scoring points in bunches and near the top of the league in several efficiency metrics is a level of improvement that is truly remarkable.
Last season, the Commanders averaged 1.67 points per drive, good for 24th in the league. They ranked in the bottom five in percentage of drives that ended in turnovers, net yards per attempt and sack percentage, while ranking in the bottom 10 in most other offensive metrics. They were downright one of the worst offenses in the league last year with, apparently, a long way back to relevance on that side of the ball. Apparently one offseason was all they needed.
A revamped offensive line and tight end room to go along with rookie sensation Jayden Daniels has the Commanders playing incredibly compelling football on this side of the ball. They rank in the top three in several offensive metrics this year, including points per drive (first), expected points added per game (second), net yards per pass attempt (third), yards per play (third), and third and third . -long conversions (first). There’s no need to caveat this by bringing up their planning – this level of turnaround is damn near unforeseen.
Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury deserves a lot of credit for orchestrating this offense to the point where Daniels could begin life as an NFL starter while improving the entire unit as a whole. Kingsbury didn’t have a great end to his tenure as coach of the Cardinals, but there were moments of offensive brilliance for Kingsbury in Arizona and it appears he was able to bring that to Washington.
Picking up this level of offensive improvement with a starting quarterback is remarkable. Normally this would take a few seasons, but now the possibilities for this current regime in Washington seem endless. There is still room to improve this offense this offseason, which should be scary for the rest of the NFC East. They clearly recognize the opportunity and the window the offense has opened, having just made a big trade for Saints star cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline.
It’s truly a new era for Washington and the start under this new regime is stunning considering where this team was a year ago. Sustainability is already within reach, which is great because you know former owner Dan Snyder is furious.
Disappointment: Somehow Jets managed to make everything feel even worse
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Even with the Jets pouring a mountain of resources into this roster in an effort to make a title run with Aaron Rodgers, they are 3-6 and need to work their way back up the standings if they want the opportunity have to sneak in. making the wild card and making the play-offs for the first time since 2010. To spend all these draft picks and contracts and play the Rodgers game, just to end up with the same record as always, is just a brutal blow – and they should the failure of the 2024 season thus far.
The resources devoted to this team are why there was so much hope for this team entering the season. Aaron Rodgers, Haason Reddick and Davante Adams were acquired in exchange for quality draft capital that went to other teams. Rodgers clearly isn’t the same player he was when he was winning MVPs in Green Bay, Reddick had the strangest offense of the year and recently joined the team, and Adams is still figuring out his new offense. They also signed players like Tyron Smith and the now-traded Mike Williams to help them hit the ground running, and they just haven’t been able to do that.
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The offense is certainly better this season, but they had such a low bar to clear. They ranked last in virtually every meaningful offensive statistic after Rodgers’ injury in the season opener. This year the offense is slightly below average. That’s just not good enough for what they wanted to do, especially now that the defense has become a mediocre unit since the firing of Robert Saleh.
Saleh’s dismissal, combined with injuries to the backend, has left the Jets’ defense suffering from poor play. Since Week 6, the Jets rank 26th in points per offense on defense and have not been able to put together full performances outside of their most recent game against the Texans. The Jets should be a complete team that could play winning football on both ends of the field, but instead they’ve just been a broken mess fighting to keep their season relevant.
It always feels possible that the Jets could turn this around just with the names of the players on the roster, but they’re not clicking right now — and it seems doubtful that a 3-6 team will finish with the nine or 10 wins they need have to reach the play-offs. Somehow it’s still just the damn Jets.
Surprise: Jim Harbaugh has Chargers a year ahead of schedule
Another team that is off to a surprising start (although less surprising than the Commanders) is the Chargers, who are 5-3 with a good chance of becoming a playoff team this season. It’s not the smoothest operation yet, but they clearly have some real building blocks and a vision for what this team can look like in the future. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing crazy in recent weeks, and that’s really all Jim Harbaugh and his staff need to build a competent football team. They may not be a true championship contender this year, but they are certainly building the foundation for one.
The biggest improvement came from the defense. That side of the ball has seen a jump at the Commanders level based on where they were last year. New defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has lived up to the enormous hype he got from Michigan and has the Chargers playing like the most efficient defense in the league. Last season, the Chargers’ defense under Brandon Staley ranked 23rd in points per drive, 28th in expected points allowed per play and 26th in expected points allowed per dropback.
Under Minter, they have jumped to first in points per drive, first in expected points allowed per play, second in expected points allowed per dropback and first in defensive success rate. Some of that is due to the weaker offense scheme, but their record suggests they are one of the best units in the league and have vastly improved from last year. They are great on early downs and third and fourth downs and have given the offense the space they need to work on their run game while still winning games. There is still a lot to learn about this defense as the season progresses. After their game against the Titans next week, they face a series of offenses with games against the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs and Buccaneers. Those are the real gut-check games.
This offense is still figuring out how all their pieces come together, but it certainly helps to have Herbert playing at the peak of his powers again. They still don’t have a very consistent passing game, but Herbert is making MVP-level throws that give them a chance to lead drives. Currently, no team has a higher percentage of drives that fail to achieve a first down than the Chargers (45.2%). They also have the lowest turnover rate in the league, meaning they’re basically just having a bunch of three-and-outs due to a run-heavy approach from a team that doesn’t actually run the ball that well outside of the league. of explosives. If they didn’t have Herbert, they would probably be the worst offense in the league. He is carrying a large load and recently delivered.
Not one of the worst teams in the league is a win for the Chargers. They’re about to hit a tough stretch in their schedule that will give them a good benchmark for where they ultimately want to be, but so far so good.
Disappointment: Goodness, New Orleans
The Saints’ season fell into disarray in record time. After scoring over 90 points in the first two weeks, they have lost seven games in a row due to a slew of injuries and absurdly poor play from their defense. Their front office and ownership have finally realized the terrible nature of their roster building strategy and have begun to tear it down by trading longtime star Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. That move, along with firing head coach Dennis Allen, closes the door on their season that went south in the blink of an eye.
Some of this is due to bad luck. All of their quality offensive linemen got injured so early in the season and doomed them from the jump prior to an injury to Derek Carr. In the three weeks where Carr missed time, the Saints went 110-45 and put up some ridiculously bad numbers on offense. The Saints averaged 0.92 points per drive during that stretch. That’s all you need to know about how freaking bad they were.
Things didn’t get much better when Carr returned to the lineup this week. They lost to the Panthers and made Bryce Young look like a functional quarterback throughout the game. It’s bad now and it won’t get much better in the near future unless they absolutely get their next quarterback selection ready to kick-start the rebuild. According to Spotrac, the Saints are $77 million over projected cap space for next season and have $48 million in dead cap after the Lattimore trade. This is about to be a long rebuild as they take their meds and rebuild a healthy situation.
The atmosphere changed so drastically in New Orleans that it was almost hard to believe this was the best offense in football through the first two weeks. Their season is over and next season is probably over too. The only positive from this season is that they have realized it is time to hit the reset button and eat the consequences of years of reckless roster building.
