Insights from La Dépêche du Midi, Le Figaro and Bloomberg
The news
France’s far-right Rassemblement National party dominated the first round of parliamentary elections, receiving around 34% of the vote, compared to around 20% for the president. Emmanuel Macron‘s centrist alliance, according to exit polls by Ipsos-Talan for France Télévisions and Radio France. The second round of the election is scheduled for July 7. The left-wing New Popular Front is currently in second place.
With the prospect of a far-right government growing, all eyes are on French President Emmanuel Macron and his willingness to work with Rassemblement National. Macron has previously warned that this would radically change the situation in France for the worse.
SIGNALS
French cities prepare for possible violence
According to Toulouse-based newspaper Le La Dépêche du Midi, shop owners across France have barricaded their doors and windows and closed them early in anticipation of protests. Many entrepreneurs have “bitter memories” of the looting that took place in 2023, in addition to the national protests against pension reforms. “I fear for order, for relations between citizens, for serenity, for civil peace,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on France Info radio. “I do not see the RN as a factor of stability and peace. I see it as a factor of disorder and violence,” he said. While the National Rally has tried to distance itself from past rhetoric that incited violence against certain groups, French authorities are concerned that a victory could embolden “its more fringe supporters” to commit acts of violence.
A high turnout in the elections could help Macron
Nearly 60% of registered voters had cast their ballots by 5 p.m. local time, Bloomberg reported — the highest turnout in nearly four decades for a first round of elections, and some 20 percentage points more than in the first round of elections of 2022. The high turnout could “significantly influence the final outcome” as it could result in some districts having three candidates running in the later second round of elections on July 7. The more three-person races there are, the more likely it is that one candidate will drop out to try to build unity around a single anti-National Rally candidate, a potential boost for Macron and his allies.
Can Macron cooperate with a far-right government?
Given the results of the European elections and polls, the National Rally is likely to win the most seats in parliament. If that happens, all eyes will be on Macron and his willingness to work with a faction of French politicians he has tried and failed to exclude. Any cooperation could be short-lived: Macron is reportedly considering calling new snap elections in the summer of 2025 if the far right wins (after a gap of at least a year between elections), French newspaper Le Figaro reported. Jordan Bardella — leader of the National Front faction and the likely favorite for prime minister — is reportedly looking to polish his image to “look more like Macron,” Le Monde noted, a tactic that could win over centrist voters who prefer a more diplomatic option.
