The fast-paced election campaign in France is over and despite latest calls not to support the far right, voters appear prepared to hand the Rassemblement National party a historic victory in the parliamentary elections.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal warned that this would unleash “impulses of hatred and aggression”.
But the party of Marine Le Pen and 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, who could become the next prime minister, has actually strengthened his lead in the polls.
National Rally has fended off a series of accusations of racism involving both party members and supporters, and the big question now is whether it can secure an outright majority in two rounds of elections over the next two Sundays.
They have a significant chance, after the European elections of June 9 colored most of France’s electoral map dark blue. That was the moment Emmanuel Macron to stun the French people with the decision to call general elections in just three weeks.
National Rally (RN) is gearing up for a big night on Sunday, with an opinion poll taken hours before the campaign ended showing support at 36.5%.
The candidates hope to win dozens of seats in the National Assembly that evening, with more than 50% of the vote. But most seats will be decided in a runoff on July 7, between two, three or even four candidates.
So opinion polls don’t tell the whole story and a hastily formed left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, also has its sights set on victory, just a few points behind the RN on 29%.
The Ensemble alliance, led by Gabriel Attal, is in third place with 20.5%, according to the Ifop poll. He claims that both other main blocks are extreme.
In no area on mainland France did the Rassemblement National enjoy greater support than in L’Aisne, a rural department in the north with just over 50% of the vote.
As of 2022, L’Aisne has already had three RN MPs, and in the historic town of Villers-Cotterêts they have had a National Rally mayor, Franck Briffaut, for ten years.
A party veteran of more than 40 years, going back to the old days of the National Front Jean-Marie Le PenHe believes that the path to power was inevitable, just as Giorgia Meloni won the elections in Italy.
But like many in his party, he will not settle for anything less than an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which requires at least 289 of the 577 seats in parliament.
“I will not participate, because it is a trap by Macron. I am also convinced that if we get an absolute majority, he must be forced to leave. As long as he is there, we cannot continue with our entire program. Because we need changes to the constitution.”
President Macron has promised not to go anywhere until his term ends in 2027, and it is his job to appoint the next prime minister after the second round of these elections on July 7.
Jordan Bardella, whose campaign posters have “Prime Minister” written below his name, insists he will not settle for anything less than an absolute majority.
That leaves open the question of who Mr Macron will choose if RN falls short. “There is no point in Emmanuel Macron appointing a prime minister that nobody would want,” says constitutional expert Prof Dominique Rousseau. But if there is no absolute majority, he says the president has room to manoeuvre.
Usually it would come from the largest party, but if they balked, he could instead look for a consensus figure who could bring together the remnants of the centre-right and centre-left.
It is now Jordan Bardella who is calling the shots. He announced two nights ago during a TV debate that he has a kind of ‘government of national unity’ in mind.
Mr Bardella has promised a government of all talents, including as yet unknown “sincere patriots who take French sovereignty to heart”. However, he did mention former Conservative leader Eric Ciotti, who alienated most of his colleagues when he forged an alliance with the RN.
It may not sound convincing, and the prospect of power-sharing – or “cohabitation” – with President Macron sounds like three very difficult years in French politics.
The head of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, has already increased tensions by questioning the president’s role as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, which appears to be only an “honorary role.”
The intensity of this election campaign and its importance have prompted Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin to warn of the risk that “the far left and the far right” will try to sow chaos after both rounds of the election. He has called on local prefects to exercise vigilance.
Away from the turbulent politics of Paris. a Greens campaigner handed out leaflets to a handful of passers-by in the northern town of Soissons, which has been run by a National Rally MP for the past two years.
He complained that since taking office the RN had done nothing for this ancient and now deprived city.
In the main shopping street, people still call the party the Front National, despite Marine Le Pen’s efforts to rebrand her party and shake off its old image of racism and anti-Semitism.
Jonathan says the RN is no different to its predecessor, but he is not too worried: “There are locks on the Assembly, in the constitution, so it is not like they are going to start a dictatorship here.”
One mother said that as a black family living in a nearby village it was disturbing that the RN vote was so high: “It’s immense. We didn’t expect RN to get the most votes in L’Aisne.”
She also believes that the far right will have difficulty changing the constitution, but she is more concerned about their rhetoric.
One of RN’s main platforms is ‘National Priority’, which limits social security to French citizens, alongside energy tax cuts and income tax exemptions for those under thirty.
The party also says dozens of sensitive, strategic jobs would not be open to people with dual nationality in France, who make up an estimated 5% of the population.
A retiring MP said the appointment of Moroccan-born former Education Minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem had been “a mistake”.
Marine Le Pen quickly shot him down, but it is clear that the issue of 3.3 million French citizens with a second nationality will not go away.
“We are not really in favour of dual nationalities,” Mayor Franck Briffaut told the BBC in Villers-Cotterêts, stressing that this was only his personal opinion.
“It’s like bigamy. We’re in a civilization where bigamy is not possible. I can’t have dual citizenship; you belong to one or the other. You can’t love two countries, just like you can’t be married to two women.”
