The three-ball has become perhaps the most important part of scoring in the NBA, so we thought we’d take a few shots from downtown as well. Here, fantasy basketball analyst Dan Titus will break down three things fantasy basketball managers need to know every week. Or he’ll break down multiple three-point advice, analysis and more – it just depends on how open he is from Deep.
Scottie Barnes is almost back!
Fantasy managers got a pleasant surprise Wednesday afternoon when Raptors beat writer Josh Lewenberg said Barnes had fully practiced and been upgraded to questionable ahead of Thursday’s game against the Minnesota Timberwolves at X. He will wear goggles to protect his eyes, but by everyone indications we should see one of the most versatile fantasy players back in the mix.
He has missed the previous 11 games with a fractured eye socket and in his absence the Raptors split his workload between RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Gradey Dick. With Barnes set to return, what does this mean for that Raptors trio?
RJ Barrett
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The pros: Barrett is playing the best basketball of his career. Unfortunately, he will undoubtedly see less usage if Barnes reenters the lineup. With Barnes off the floor this season, Barrett averaged 23.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 6.8 assists with a career-high 31% usage rate. He was inefficient, but the increase in assists and steals has helped him become a top-25 player in the points leagues.
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The disadvantages: Barrett and Barnes shared the court once this season, but when he combined his numbers from last season with Barnes’, Barrett saw a usage percentage of 24.6 while putting up 20.6 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists per match noted. It’s not a significant drop, but the assists are less prominent. However, efficiency improved significantly with Barnes. Barrett shot 54% from the field and 40.1% from three with fewer turnovers.
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Final verdict: All that said, Barrett remains a great option for points leagues, and fantasy managers may be in for a buy-low window as most expect Barrett’s return to further depress Barrett’s numbers. An efficient version of RJ is worth considering in 9-cat leagues.
Jakob Poeltl
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The pros: Speaking of career years, Poeltl is averaging 39 fantasy points per game this year. Kelly Olynyk is out with a back injury, leaving the Austrian big man with minimal competition in the frontcourt. It has led to Poeltl playing more than 30 minutes a night, which is the most of his career. Poeltl offers fantasy managers steady volume as a rebounder and defender. This season his best result in the 9-cat competitions was 71st place. Poeltl is on pace to be a top-50 player after posting nearly 19 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 shares per game without Barnes.
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The disadvantages: Poeltl’s scoring will likely decline once Barnes returns, but the rebounds and shares should persist. I can see the argument for selling high, especially after witnessing what he’s done over the last three games. Absurd work.
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Final verdict: I’m not selling right now, but his elite play will likely draw interest from contenders once the trade deadline rolls around. Regardless, Scottie Barnes’ return shouldn’t affect Poeltl as much as RJ Barrett from a purely statistical perspective.
Degree Dick
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The pros: Arrives Thursday, the second-year pro hasn’t endured much of a second-year slump offensively. Dick’s increased his scoring by 10 points per game this season, from 8.5 points per night to 18.7 points per game. He has also been a little more efficient this year. Dick’s true-shooting percentage increased from .545 to .563. In short, he has become less accurate with more shot volume, but his ability to get to the line (4.3 attempts/g) and knock down 91% of his freebies makes up for the loss of efficiency in the field. He also makes optimal use of his opportunities offensively. His 22% usage rate is solid, but Dick is averaging the highest points per touch of any Raptor playing at least 20 minutes. He is their best mid-range shooter and now that Barnes has his game back in the fold, we should see Dick get better looks from beyond the arc as well.
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The disadvantages: While that all sounds promising, Dick scored 15.4 points per game with Scottie in street clothes, compared to 12.6 points when Barnes suited up. The points count decreases. Another problem with Gradey is that he doesn’t do much outside of scoring and making 3s. He gets over 30 minutes, cool, but in four games he played with Scottie this year, Dick averaged 1.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists. He was ranked as the 98th player in 9-cat leagues in that four-game series, and while it has risen since then, I don’t see the upside in him not contributing to more categories.
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Final verdict: Fantasy managers have jumped ship, while Dick’s roster is down more than 5% since Wednesday. Although he exceeds expectations, I support the decision to drop him in most points and 9-cat leagues.
