Insights from The European Council on Foreign Relations, The Kyiv Independent and Frankfurter Allgemeine
The news
New research shows a divide between the way Ukraine and its allies in Europe view the war with Russia and its likely outcome.
The European Council on Foreign Relations, a European think tank, found that Ukrainians and other Europeans generally support helping Ukraine in its fight against Russia, but they disagree about what such support is likely to achieve. Ukrainians believe the support could help the country win the war; while other Europeans are skeptical about that outcome.
SIGNALS
Support for Ukraine unchanged – but Europeans predict very different outcomes
A survey of nearly 20,000 people in 15 European countries found that support for Ukraine has remained largely unchanged since the start of the war. In the countries surveyed, Europeans support Kiev, while in Ukraine it is “morally strong”. But views differ on what sending weapons to Ukraine could achieve: “Ukrainians want more weapons and ammunition to help them win the war, most Europeans want… to put Kiev in a better negotiating position to end the war,” the think tank found. Another point of contention: Ukraine sees potential membership of NATO and the European Union as “recognition of their courage”, while other Europeans see potential membership as part of a future settlement.
Ukraine knows the West has a ‘bleak’ outlook, but some have questioned the validity of the intelligence service
A report circulated among German politicians in May suggested that Ukraine could lose significant ground to Russia this year, creating a “bleak” outlook in the West for how Kiev’s defense against Russia would fare, The Kyiv Independent reported. But some politicians who have reviewed the report have questioned its validity and have argued that the intelligence was presented in a deliberately pessimistic manner. One lawmaker, the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine reported, believed the reports were “deliberately ‘disseminated’ to ‘suggest’… that the situation is hopeless and that military support is no longer of any use.”
