Georgia (7-2) rolled Clemson 34-3 in the opener before winning a 13-12 coin flip over Kentucky to open 3-0. A catastrophic, interception-laden first half for QB Carson Beck led to their first loss against Alabama in Week 4. Fortunately, the Dawgs came back to destroy Texas in Austin 30-15, despite another three-interception performance by QB Carson. Hint. Two weeks ago, they overcame Florida’s first-half scare with a 34-20 victory, foreshadowing last week’s embarrassing 28-10 loss to @Ole Miss. Their offense lacks explosion and ranks 99th in yards per successful rush (8.9). yards) and 73rd in yards per successful dropback (14.6 yards), and has committed 15 turnovers with a 3.6% interception rate (102nd). A loss to Tennessee would sink UGA’s CFP Playoff hopes, so they hope to get RB Trevor Etienne back up to speed after being limited the last two games.
Tennessee (8-1) destroyed their first three non-conference opponents by a combined score of 191-13. That’s not a misprint. Their only misstep came in Week 4 when @Arkansas backup QB Malachi Singleton ran for an 11-yard touchdown with 1:11 left in the game to outlast UT 19-17. They had a pair of one-score wins over Florida and especially over Alabama, which has been their signature win thus far. Tennessee’s offense has scored 28 points just once in SEC play and ranks 23rd in EPA/rush and 45th in EPA/dropback. Defensively, they rank third in SP+ and boast the nation’s best run D, averaging a 28% stuff rate (2nd) and 33.6% rushing success rate (4th).
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Game details and how to watch Tennessee @ Georgia
· Date: Saturday November 16, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Location: Sanford Stadium
· City: Athens, Georgia
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+
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Game odds for Tennessee @ Georgia
Thursday’s latest odds:
The Georgia line opened at a huge Georgia-17.5, but that has adjusted dramatically to the current -10.5, with unsubstantiated reports that Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava is reportedly on track to play. The best prices for the Moneyline are -360 for UGA and +335 for the Vols. The game total has fallen from the 49 open to a low of 47.5 at the time of publication.
NBC Sportsbook Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Georgia is 6-3 for the Under so far this year and has failed to reach the 48.5-point mark against Ole Miss, Texas, Auburn, Kentucky and Clemson. The only competitive game to go down was Carson Beck’s first-half meltdown against Alabama. Tennessee has scored under 48.5 points in every SEC game thus far, so I’m going to listen to the trends and play the game total UNDER 48.5. ”
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Quarterback matchup for Tennessee @ Georgia
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Georgia: Heading into the season, QB Carson Beck led all returning FBS signal callers with 3,949 passing yards and a 2nd ranked 91.5 PFF offensive grade. He emerged as a Heisman frontrunner who opened at 4-to-1 odds to win college football’s most coveted award, but the quality of his play has declined as Beck has thrown nine interceptions in the last four games. His 76th% PFF offensive grade and 12 interceptions are concerning, as is Beck’s extremely low 28th% success rate under pressure with a 35% completion rate.
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Tennessee: QB Nico Iamaleava arrived on campus last year as a five-star recruit with a premium athletic profile. After a year of interning, he has completed 65% of his throws for 1,880 yards and an 11-to-4 ratio as UT’s starting quarterback. While his 82% mark is a very credible number, HC Josh Heupel has protected Nico by only allowing him to attempt 30+ passes once this season. Iamaleava’s 11.7 yards per attempt ranks third nationally, proving he’s not afraid to be aggressive and shoot down the field. Unfortunately, Iamaleava’s ability to play is in doubt due to a concussion he suffered against Mississippi State last weekend. Fifth-year QB Gaston Moore was expected to start in his absence.
Betting trends and recent statistics
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Georgia’s offense has thrown for 2,578 passing yards in 9 games this season, which ranks 16th among FBS offenses. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 171.6 passing yards per game this season, which ranks 15th among FBS defenses.
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Georgia’s offensive line ranks second in the nation with a 20.9% pressure rate allowed and eighth with a 3.8% blown run-block rate. However, they also rank 94th, allowing a sack per pressure percentage of 22.7% and 3.9 penalties per game, which ranks 79th overall.
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Tennessee has tackled opponents for a loss on 68 of 322 rushing attempts this year, good for a 21% TFL rate that ranks second in the SEC. Ole Miss leads the conference with 26.5%.
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Despite HC Heupel’s reputation for building high-flying offenses, UT plays the ball well above average on both standard downs (63.4% = 30th) and passing downs (49.2% = 7th).
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (last week to now)
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Ohio State +350 to +300
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Texas +550 to +450
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Ole Miss +3500 to +1000
Highest ticket%
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State of Ohio 14.0%
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Texas 11.5%
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Georgia 10.6%
Highest Handle%
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State of Ohio 17.7%
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Georgia 16.3%
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Texas 11.4%
Biggest obligations
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Colorado
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State of Ohio
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Tennessee
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