LANDOVER, Md. – Eight years and two U.S. Soccer reigns ago, a four-goal loss was the final straw.
It won’t be for Gregg Berhalter; but it’s a relevant precedent to recall as pressure mounts on the U.S. men’s national team and its coach in the wake of a 5-1 Colombian shellacking here Saturday.
It was the fall of 2016 when Jurgen Klinsmann’s USMNT foundered in Costa Rica. Their 4-0 flop was the US A-team’s third flop by such a margin since 1994. Within months of all three – and within days of the Costa Rican disaster – the head coach lost his job.
Saturday was the fourth.
And as it disintegrated, Berhalter’s seat undoubtedly began to warm.
Of course it was just a friendly arrangement. Compared to 2016, the stakes and circumstances are different. But perhaps the most relevant precedent is the first of the four flops, a June 2011 loss to Spain, 4-0 in a friendly before the Gold Cup. Bob Bradley survived that defeat. He led the US to and through the Gold Cup. It was after falling short in the Gold Cup, a regional tournament, that Bradley was fired.
That, in a nutshell, is where US Soccer likely stands thirteen years later. Berhalter will coach the USMNT at the 2024 Copa América. If he fails, Than Questions are asked and decisions are made.
The main question is whether the USMNT will make progress and climb towards 2026.
The Copa América will provide the greatest proof.
If the answer is clear and affirmative, the pre-tournament results are forgotten.
But even if weak or devastating, Colombia’s capitulation should be seen as part of a pattern, one that sober analysts are increasingly pointing out.
Tab Ramos, a former USMNT assistant and current Telemundo expert, talked about it Saturday without mentioning Berhalter. ‘The truth is that I am a [U.S.] team with dedication, I see a team that runs, but I see a team that cannot find solutions,” Ramos said in Spanish. “It’s always the same, always the same football, always the same game. The games change, the opponents change and we see the same thing.”
We’ve been seeing Berhalter’s USMNT for five years now. We saw them beat up the worst Mexican team in decades. We’ve also seen them in nine games outside CONCACAF against top 20 Elo. They drew five of those matches, lost four and won none.
They have sometimes tried to play more extensive football against Germany and Colombia lately. But their efforts have backfired; their coherence is broken; “It felt like they were just waiting for us to make a mistake and then killed us in transition,” captain Christian Pulisic said of Colombia. “And that happened again and again.”
Whether or not the mistakes and inabilities are Berhalter’s fault is incredibly difficult to determine. In general, international football is largely driven by players. But at a certain point it is up to the coach to prove that the pattern can be broken.
During his first day on the job, Berhalter broke other patterns; he adapted; he conquered Mexico. But when he was rehired for a second cycle last June, reasonable doubts arose around his ability to lead this USMNT to “the next step” and new levels.
A year later, those doubts are still lingering, perhaps more ominously than ever before. And the clocks are ticking.
The Copa América, although only nine months into Berhalter’s second spell, will be the USMNT’s only chance between now and the 2026 World Cup to face elite teams in a legitimate competition.
After that, U.S. Soccer, under the leadership of athletic director Matt Crocker, will have to assess the program’s trajectory. The players are better on paper than ever before. Does their collective potential increase in line with their individual talent?
The time to answer that question is at the end of July. A change of coach now, in June, would be hasty. But blindly committing to Berhalter until 2025 would wipe out crucial months in which a hypothetical new coach could build. And to commit to him until 2026, without evidence of progress, would risk squandering this talented generation of players and wasting this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity – a World Cup on home soil.
The moment when we have to make a decision, no matter how difficult, is approaching. And after Saturday, Berhalter’s seat will be preheated.
It’s not hot. Things might be cool in a month, and in retrospect, this freak-out might feel weird. Berhalter will not be fired for losing a friendly against Colombia. Bradley wasn’t fired for losing to Spain (without multiple starters). Klinsmann was not fired because he lost 4-0 to Argentina in the semi-final of the Copa América Centenario. Coaches are not fired for 90 minutes.
Coaches get fired if their team goes sideways or backwards.
Klinsmann was fired because a goal – qualifying for and succeeding at the 2018 World Cup – seemed increasingly distant instead of closer.
That’s the lens through which we can view Berhalter over the next month: Will his trial lead to a quarterfinal or semifinal in 2026? Or is the situation stagnating, perhaps even deteriorating? Are those lofty goals within reach, or are they slipping away?
The answers remain unclear for now, but the chorus of skeptics is growing. There is almost a potential turning point for the entire USMNT.
This seems, as Ramos said, “a very, very delicate moment for the United States.”
