The first basic market is on the move. Moving is an understatement. A day after Christian Walker signed with the Houston Astros, and hours after the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt, the Guardians and Diamondbacks started the fun.
In the deal, the Guardians received right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and was a Competitive Balance pick in Round B, currently slated as the 72nd overall pick.
But the Guardians didn’t wait long to add a replacement for Naylor.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor in a trade with the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 21, 2024
Let’s take a look at these moves and the potential fantasy impact for all parties involved for the 2025 season.
Why did the Diamondbacks choose Naylor to replace Walker?
Naylor was a first-round pick by the Marlins in 2015, and after a few trades involving Miami and the Padres, he made his MLB debut for the Guardians in 2019. He played primarily in a platoon role during his time with Cleveland until 2022. , but he has been a mainstay in the Guardians’ lineup ever since. He took a big step forward in 2023 with an .842 OPS, and he made the All-Star Game for the second consecutive season in 2024 after hitting .243/.320/.456 with a career-high 31 home runs and 108 RBI .
And those numbers are supported by the advanced statistics. You could even argue that those numbers in 2024 were a bit unfortunate. According to Baseball Savant, he was in the 54th percentile or better in every outcome-based metric outside of the chase rate (3.2 percent, 25th percentile), and even while swinging at a high rate on pitches outside the zone, he still had a excellent running rate of 9.2 percent. He makes hard contact, he commands the baseball, and as a player who turns 28 in June, there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll be just as good or better in the years to come.
Why would the Guardians want to leave Naylor?
There are a few reasons for that, and of course we’ll talk about the addition of Santana in a moment.
The biggest reason to trade Naylor has little to do with his ability, but rather his contract. He will be eligible for arbitration for the final time before the 2025 season, and will hit free agency after the season. Cleveland continues to operate as a small club and will continue to do so, so they clearly felt better about moving Naylor now than potentially losing him for nothing at the end of the year.
Additionally, the Guardians have one of the top prospects at the starting base position in Kyle Manzardo. Manzardo posted a respectable .703 OPS in his first MLB action, but that number is challenged by the tremendous struggles after initially being promoted; something that several quality hitters have had to deal with just to build excellent careers. It’s possible that Manzardo could be the designated hitter with Santana at first base, but either way, this seems to clear up his path to helping in 2025. He would be someone I would target late in the fantasy this winter.
What about Slade Cecconi?
Cecconi was drafted by the Diamondbacks with the 33rd pick out of Miami in 2020, and he was someone who received Top 100 hype in the 2022 season. He has seen his stock drop significantly with poor results at various levels, but despite his 6.66 ERA over twenty appearances (13 starts), there have been some good moments for the 25-year-old right-hander. He storms the strike zone, as evidenced by a five percent walk rate over his 77 innings, and he had a very respectable 36.4 percent hard hit percentage allowed in that time frame. All the other numbers are pretty ugly – especially a barrel rate above 10 percent – but the Guardians have done wonders with this kind of profile. Fantasy players still have to play the waiting game before investing.
Does Carlos Santana have anything left in the tank?
Yes. In any case, based on 2024.
Santana was infamously traded to the Guardians for Casey Blake from the Dodgers in 2008, and he will now be in his third stint with Cleveland. He spent 2024 with the Twins and the 38-year-old hit 23 home runs with a .749 OPS – good for an OPS+ of 109 – and in addition to being a solid offensive player, he also ranked in the 97th percentile in outs above average according to Baseball Savant.
Santana’s calling card has long been his patient on the board, and that didn’t change last year. He walked in 10.9 percent of his plate appearances, and swung at pitches outside the zone only 23.4 percent of the time. He doesn’t have the power he once had, but he still had a solid expected slugging percentage of .419 – ranked in the 58th percentile among qualified hitters – and an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, putting him in the 52nd percentile.
The one thing to keep in mind about Santana, aside from the fact that he turns 39 in April, is that despite hitting from both sides of the plate, he has extreme platoon stats. In 2024, he hit a less-than-desirable .219/.318/.356 as a left-handed hitter, while mashing lefties to the tune of .286/.356/.578. Ultimately it should “balance” well enough, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Where would you rank Naylor, Santana and Manzardo for 2025?
Naylor is clearly still the top target here, and if you wanted to argue that he was a top-five first baseman this year, I wouldn’t argue with you for too long. I’d put Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Bryce Harper clearly above Naylor, while Matt Olson would also be above Naylor by a not insignificant margin, and I’d put Walker above him if only because of how much I love that park fit and Walker’s consistency. That puts Walker in the 6-8 range, competing with guys like Salvador Perez and Pete Alonso, but again, the fact that he’s just entering his prime makes him someone I’d consider in the first five rounds.
Santana is a little trickier. The power and opportunity to land some pretty good players is intriguing, but he doesn’t contribute batting average or steals, and you might not see him in the lineup every day. He’d be in the corner-infield range for me right now, but it’s not hard to see him being relevant in 2025.
Manzardo is the most difficult to rank. The fact that he played for the Guardians in the postseason (and played well) tells you that Cleveland has confidence in the 24-year-old, and that he has put up monstrous numbers in the minors. You can’t pick too highly on a player who is in his first full season at first base and doesn’t have an elite tool, but there is more than enough offensive upside to suggest he could be a breakout player this summer. He is someone I would like to use heavily in goalkeeper/dynasty formats.
