The 2024 presidential election is less than a week away. And the latest batch of major national polls and swing state surveys show the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as tight as it’s ever been.
National polls
Three websites that collect national and state surveys – the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times – currently have the national polling average as follows:
Silver Bulletin
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Harris: 48.5%
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Trump: 47.4%
FiveThirtyEight
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Harris: 48.0%
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Trump: 46.8%
New York Times
All three show Harris with a narrow lead in the popular vote, but less than two percentage points each — well within the overall margins of error.
Swing state polls
The same websites have the following polling averages in the seven battleground states:
Silver Bulletin
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Nevada: Trump 48.2% | Harris 47.9%
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Arizona: Trump 49.0% | Harris 46.8%
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Wisconsin: Harris48.6% | Trump 47.8%
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Michigan: Harris48.4% | Trump 47.2%
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Pennsylvania: Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.8%
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North Carolina: Trump 48.7% | Harris 47.4%
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Georgia: Trump 49.2% | Harris 47.4%
FiveThirtyEight
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Nevada: Harris 47.5% | Trump 47.5%
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Arizona: Trump 48.8% | Harris 46.6%
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Wisconsin: Harris48.2% | Trump 47.4%
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Michigan: Harris 48.0% | Trump 46.9%
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Pennsylvania: Trump 47.9% | Harris 47.6%
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North Carolina: Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.1%
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Georgia: Trump 48.7% | Harris 47.0%
New York Times
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Nevada: Harris 48% | Trump 48%
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Arizona: Trump 49% | Harris 47%
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Wisconsin: Harris 49% | Trump 48%
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Michigan: Harris 49% | Trump 48%
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Pennsylvania: Trump 49% | Harris 48%
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North Carolina: Trump 49% | Harris 48%
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Georgia: Trump 49% | Harris 48%
“The battleground states remain extraordinarily tight, and no candidate has any material edge in the seven states that will likely determine the presidency,” Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief research officer, wrote Monday.
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – the so-called Blue Wall for Democrats – are crucial for Harris. In 2016, Trump reversed all three, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden recaptured all three, with Pennsylvania securing its victory.
These are just averages, not projections or racial calls. These are determined based on the votes actually cast on or before election day.
