Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in three of the key states crucial to winning the 2024 election, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday.
The poll, conducted August 5-9, asked likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin about their attitudes toward Harris and Trump. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, Harris received 50 percent support to Trump’s 46 percent — a marked improvement over President Joe Biden‘s performance against Trump in previous Times polls. When third-party candidates and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included in the race, Harris remains ahead by 5 percentage points in Michigan, 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 6 percentage points in Wisconsin, with a declining Kennedy averaging just 5 percent support.
The new poll suggests that Harris has not only closed the gap with Trump nationally but also has a lead in the crucial Blue Wall states as she rides a wave of momentum into her third week. The poll was conducted largely at the same time that Harris was electrifying Midwestern crowds on a whirlwind rally tour with her newly named running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom voters are still getting to know. Meanwhile, Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, are struggling to articulate a consistent and compelling message against their Democratic opponents.
The poll found that Harris is benefiting from rising popularity among voters in every state, while Trump’s popularity in the three states improved slightly compared to previous Times/Siena polls.
Between Harris’s Pennsylvania numbers in July — a week before Biden withdrew — and now, the vice president has gained 8 percentage points in the state among independent voters, reversing Trump’s previous lead of 6 percentage points. She’s also closing the gap with Trump among white voters in Pennsylvania, with 47 percent support to Trump’s 49 percent in the state. The polls in Michigan and Wisconsin also broadly suggest that Harris is drawing more white voters into her column than Biden.
Across the three states, Harris has a net-positive popularity rating, with 50 percent having a “somewhat” or “very” favorable opinion of her, while 53 percent of respondents have a “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” opinion of Trump. Assessments of Harris’s political agenda were divided, with 44 percent of likely voters saying Harris is too liberal or progressive, while another 44 percent said she is neither too liberal or progressive, nor too moderate.
And in the biggest change in the Democratic presidential nominee’s fortunes, Harris isn’t burdened by the perceived qualities that made Biden a wildly unpopular pick for the 2024 ticket. A majority of likely voters think she’s honest, smart, fit to govern, and also capable of bringing about the right kind of change in the country. Trump fares worse on all those measures, despite being seen as having a clear vision for the country, with 60 percent of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin saying that sentiment applies to Trump “very” or “somewhat” well.
Notably, 47 percent of likely voters surveyed said Trump would make changes that would be “very bad” or “somewhat bad” for the country if elected, compared to 37 percent of likely voters who said the same about Harris.
Compared with the Times poll in May of a Biden-Trump race, a larger share of likely voters trust Harris over Biden on the economy and abortion. The poll, conducted largely after Walz was announced as Harris’ running mate, found that 33 percent of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still haven’t heard of him or have no opinion about him. However, he is viewed favorably by 39 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 28 percent — with significant popularity among 18- to 29-year-old voters — and holds an advantage over Vance among independent voters.
Democratic candidates in Senate races in each of the three states also pulled ahead of their Republican opponents, with Sen. Bob Casey leading by 14 percentage points in Pennsylvania, Sen. Tammy Baldwin leading by 7 percentage points in Wisconsin and Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading by 3 percentage points in Michigan.
The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 1,973 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points when all states are added together.
