Enrollment in Utah’s public education system fell from 2023 by 4,873 students, a decline of 0.7% and the largest overall decline since 2015.
There were a total of 667,789 K-12 students enrolled for the 2024-2025 school year, according to data released last week by the Utah State Board of Education.
While the number of students enrolled in school districts across Utah has decreased over the past year, the number of students enrolled in charter schools has increased.
An interesting trend has emerged over the past decade, showing that while primary school enrollment has generally declined, secondary school enrollment has increased. Total twelfth grade enrollment is now much higher (53,425) than in 2014 (40,812), while the opposite effect is seen in kindergarten enrollment in those same years (44,776 now compared to 50,363 in 2014).
One factor that could explain this turnaround in the past decade is Utah’s declining fertility rate.
“We can see that there is already a decline,” said Aaron Brough, director of data and statistics for the State School Board.
According to a June 2024 report from the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Utah—which held the title of highest fertility rate in the country until 2016—now ranks No. 4, with a fertility rate of 1,853 children per woman.
That’s lower than the 2.1 fertility rate needed to replace a population.
“There is a natural decline that we are following,” Brough said. “Because of that decline, the expected number of children going to kindergarten, first grade and the like is not increasing as we have seen in the past when we had really high birth rates.”
Still, the year-over-year decline hasn’t been drastic, but Utah schools are no longer experiencing the steady increase that has been the case for most of the past decade.
At the same time, Utah is experiencing record levels of immigration as the fastest growing state in the country. But when we look at the demographics of those flocking to the Beehive State, it makes sense why more new Utahns aren’t combating the declining fertility rate.
A recent report from the Gardner Policy Institute found that fewer families moved to Utah between 2018 and 2021 – and more young adults between the ages of 20 and 24. The uptick may be due to a decline in migration to universities due to the COVID-19 crisis. pandemic, at a time when remote learning was common.
The same report shows that immigrants are slightly more likely to not attend school: from 60.8% in 2018 to 65.2% in 2023.
So, Brough said, when Utah had a higher birth rate, those students are now moving through the school system, which would increase 12th-grade enrollment by nearly 13,000 students from 2014.
“That’s why we’re seeing that change; 10 years ago a higher percentage of students were in the lower grades and this year we’ve seen the opposite,” Brough said.
Overall, Brough said the state of Utah will need to keep a close eye on Utah’s growth demographics as the state continues to increase its population, whether through new births or immigration.
As for the State Board of Education, Brough said it will keep a close eye on the changing dynamics of Utah’s population.
“Effective resource allocation and policy development at the Utah State Board of Education depend on robust enrollment data collection that undergoes rigorous quality control and analysis. This data provides insights into student demographics, needs and trends, allowing the board to make informed funding allocation decisions that promote the success of Utah’s students,” said Brough.
