In a fourth-floor conference room at the Gaylord Hotel, just north of the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport, 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee began meeting Monday and will meet all day Tuesday before, for will be producing for the first time this season. their Top 25 rankings.
None of this is really new. This is the eleventh year of the same process.
What’s new: They’re creating rankings that don’t apply to a four-team playoff at the end of the season, but to a twelve-team playoff. However, their rankings are not expected to reflect the change in the playoffs. They will rank the teams as they normally would: the top 25 teams in that order, regardless of conference affiliation, etc.
For all of us on the outside looking in, we’ll apply these rankings to the new 12-team playoff format. These are the rules of the new format:
– Rule 1: The top five ranked conference champions automatically qualify for the field.
– Rule 2: The four highest ranked Conference Champions are seeded at numbers 1-4 and receive a bye in the first round (to emphasize this again, teams that have not won their Conference Championship cannot receive a bye and cannot cannot be placed better than No. 5).
– Rule 3: After the four highest-ranked conference champions are seeded, the next seven highest-ranked teams enter the field via at-large spots and are seeded based on the order of their ranking. The fifth highest ranked conference champion will also be seeded based on their ranking.
– Other details:
(1) Independents, such as Notre Dame, are not eligible for a top four spot or a bye.
(2) The first round matches between Nos. 5-12 seeds, Nos. 6-11, Nos. 7-10 and Nos. 8-9 will be played at the higher seed’s site from December 20-21.
(3) The quarterfinals will be held this year at the Fiesta Bowl (awarded to the Big 12 champion), Peach Bowl (ACC champion), Rose Bowl (Big Ten champion) and Sugar Bowl (SEC champion).
Do you have all that? It can be confusing because the committee rankings likely won’t correlate with playoff seeding. For example, if this year’s Big 12 champion is ranked No. 7 and is the fourth-highest conference champion, that team will be seeded No. 4. Here’s another example: If the loser of the SEC Championship is ranked No. 3 and the highest-ranked non-champion, that team is ranked No. 5.
Now let’s look at a few issues we’ll be watching in the CFP rankings as they relate to the 12-team field. We can learn a lot about the committee’s thinking in three areas:
(1) The pecking order of the power conference.
(2) Notre Dame, bubble teams compete for big spots.
(3) The race for the fifth conference championship entry spot (G5).
The pecking order of the power conference
The polls are pretty clear on which team is #1.
Oregon received all 62 available votes for first place in the latest AP poll. But who’s next? And where do the Big 12 and ACC’s best teams rank in the rankings?
These are important questions as the four power leagues battle for the top four seeds, and it gives us insight into what the committee thinks of the overall strength of each conference (that’s important for later when deciding where to place teams with similar or same data from different conferences).
In the AP poll, the ACC’s highest-ranked team is Miami at No. 4 and the Big 12’s BYU at No. 9. The number of spots separating BYU and Boise State – likely the highest-ranked team in the Group of Five – is a big, big deal. It gives us insight into the likelihood of Boise actually surpassing a Power League champion to clinch the No. 4 seed. It seems unlikely without an upset in a championship game (like, say, a two-loss Colorado beating BYU in the Big 12 title fight). But it is not excluded.
At the top of the rankings, the pecking order of the power conferences can also give us an idea of which teams can take a second loss and still move up in the rankings. In the AP poll, Texas (No. 5) and Ohio State (No. 3) are the second-best teams in the SEC and Big Ten. The third-best SEC team is Tennessee (No. 7) and for the Big Ten is Penn State (No. 6). Will the selection committee agree on the pecking order for those four potential non-champions? It’s important.
And where are the second-best teams in the ACC and Big 12? Is there any chance that both leagues will be a two-bid conference? The Big 12 is in the most dangerous position if the second-best team is left out of the equation. Iowa State is ranked No. 17 in the AP poll. The next best ACC team is SMU. The AP poll has the Mustangs at No. 13 (two spots outside of an at-large berth, which we’ll discuss below).
Notre Dame and bubble teams
Notre Dame’s rankings will be one of the most fascinating items on Tuesday night. The Irish are polarizing to begin with as the last independent club football club. But they also have what is probably the worst loss of any playoff contender: at home against a Northern Illinois team that is now 4-4 on the season.
As a reminder, the Irish’s only route to the playoffs is one of the seven at-large spots. They can’t get a bye and one of the top four seeds. If you’re wondering how that came about, consider former Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick, who agreed to the concept during deliberations with CFP commissioners in 2021 when the playoff format was introduced. In retrospect, it’s pretty smart. The Irish don’t have to play in a 13th match and can still punch their ticket, as long as they finish high enough in the rankings.
The AP poll has Notre Dame at number 10, squarely on the bubble for an at-large bid. If the 12-team format were applied to the AP poll, the Irish would travel as a No. 10 seed to play at No. 7 seed Penn State.
Who else is in the bubble? Two-loss Alabama, ranked No. 11 in the AP poll, would get the last spot overall if the 12-team bracket were applied. SMU is one place behind that. Three SEC teams with two losses follow in LSU, Texas A&M and Ole Miss, and Iowa State with one loss is next. The Tide and Tigers will tangle this weekend in Baton Rouge – the first true elimination game between two playoff contenders this year. The loser is almost certainly out.
But will the committee agree to the AP’s order? How do you differentiate between these four two-loss teams? Start with the fact that A&M beat LSU and LSU beat Ole Miss. So the pecking order behind Alabama seems clear: Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss. The Aggies have to root for the Tigers in the game against Alabama. Ole Miss’ home loss to a 3-6 Kentucky hurts, and Iowa State’s strength in the rankings (36th in Sagarin) doesn’t help. But don’t forget this: the Cyclones won at an Iowa team that is 4-2 in the Big Ten.
There are a few other teams with an outside shot at getting on the bubble, including Clemson with two losses perhaps, and Pitt with one loss (they meet next week, by the way). But the most intriguing of the possible bubble teams is none other than Washington State, one of the remnants of the old Pac-12.
The Cougars are 7-1 with wins over a 5-4 Big Ten team (Washington) and a 6-3 Big 12 team (Texas Tech), and their only loss is to the 12th-ranked team in the country (Boise) . Washington State, ranked No. 20 in the AP, is ineligible for a conference championship qualifier and must finish high enough in the rankings to earn a spot in the overall rankings. Do they have a chance? If the committee ranks them in the top 16 on Tuesday, they might actually have a shot despite a quasi-Group of Five schedule.
The race of the G5s
Boise State will almost certainly be the committee’s top-ranked Group of Five team, allowing the Broncos to advance to the playoffs if they win their remaining regular season games and the Mountain West championship.
With the back of Heisman Trophy-fighting running back Ashton Jeanty, that shouldn’t be much of an issue. Only one of their last four opponents has a winning record. The Mountain West title game will likely come against UNLV or Colorado State. Boise State already defeated the first of those and the Rams are coming off a loss to Oregon State.
But what if the Broncos stumble along the way? The American Athletic Conference champion is waiting to steal the bid – maybe. Army, ranked 18th in the AP, is undefeated and while the Black Knights have the worst-ranked schedule of any G5 playoff contender, they have a huge opportunity on Nov. 23: a game against Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium.
A win there could suddenly have the selection committee toying with the idea of vaulting Army above Boise State in the rankings. Boise State’s best win is actually a loss: a three-point defeat at top-ranked Oregon. The Broncos also won at UNLV, which defeated mid-major Big 12 teams Kansas and Houston.
When the committee’s rankings are released, take note of how close — or far apart — Boise State and Army are. And where is Tulane? The Green Wave has two losses, but both were relatively close and against Kansas State and Oklahoma. Another CFP candidate: Louisiana. The Cajuns are a surprising 7-1 and lead the Sun Belt. They won at Wake Forest and lost a narrow win to Tulane.
