This time they don’t think too much. This time they have no choice.
The Dodgers will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the opener of their National League Division Series against the San Diego Padres on Friday, but not necessarily because they trust him more than Jack Flaherty.
In the regular season, Yamamoto never threw a traditional five-day cycle. Flaherty did that.
If the Dodgers were to stick to their original plan of starting Flaherty in Game 1 and Yamamoto in Game 2, only Flaherty would be available to return for a potential Game 5. By trading their spots in their rotation, both would be available are, with one starting and the other pitching in relief.
The implication: The Dodgers know their bullpen could be completely depleted by then.
Read more: Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start for Dodgers in Game 1 of NLDS vs. Padres
It’s October and the Dodgers have another starting pitching problem. Even if they hadn’t spent more than $500 million last winter, they could save their annual tradition of entering the postseason with no idea of what they’ll get out of their rotation.
The Dodgers won more regular season games than any team in the Majors, yet they are talked about around the sport as if they are the underdogs in this NLDS. Getting started with pitching is the reason.
Yamamoto, their $325 million rookie import from Japan, has thrown just 16 innings in the past 3½ months. Flaherty, their prized trade deadline acquisition, experienced a noticeable decline in fastball velocity over his final two regular season appearances.
At this point, Walker Buehler may be the most likely candidate to get them off to a good start. Overall, the former All-Star hasn’t pitched well in his first season back from his second Tommy John surgery, but he limited the Padres to one run in five innings in the Dodgers’ division win last week.
Buehler is expected to start Game 3. The Dodgers are expected to resort to a bullpen game involving rookie Landon Knack if the series reaches Game 4.
This could be the same old story for the Dodgers. Their rotation may be a little better than last year and a little worse than two years ago, but they’re more or less in the same place they were when they got swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks at this stage of the postseason. in 2023 and eliminated in four games by the Padres in 2022.
Asked for his assessment of his team’s pitching, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman quickly shifted the conversation from the starters to the bullpen, which he called “a real force.”
“The more success we have in October, and the more we can win eleven games [to win the World Series]I think our bullpen is going to play a very important role in that,” Friedman said.
But how many innings can the innings cover?
Yamamoto has the highest ceiling among starters, but he was struck by an illness in recent weeks that affected his performance, resulting in shorter starts that kept him from getting stretched out as planned. In the four starts he made in September after returning from a midseason shoulder injury, the most he pitched in a game was five innings.
Flaherty has averaged fewer than five innings in his last three starts. Buehler had one of his best games of the season against the Padres last week, but his early removal was indicative of how the Dodgers view him now.
The Dodgers should be able to survive a best-of-five NLDS, especially with scheduled days off after Games 2 and 4, allowing them to reset their bullpen. The NL Championship Series and World Series will be completely different stories. In a seven-game series, Yamamoto or Flaherty, or perhaps even both, will have to win a significant number of innings before the team has a chance. Someone will have to relieve the burden on the relievers.
How could the Dodgers find themselves in this position again? How could the Dodgers be in danger of wasting another historic offensive season because of a long-standing problem?
They could blame the injuries on their own starters, including Gavin Stone and River Ryan. They could point to the disappointing progress that flamethrower Bobby Miller has made. Ultimately, though, they wouldn’t have the problems they have now if their big spenders performed as expected. They invested $325 million in Yamamoto and $136.6 million in Tyler Glasnow, and the injury-prone Glasnow won’t even be available to pitch in these playoffs.
Read more: “Get them back.” Dodgers look for redemption in NLDS rematch with Padres
Earlier this week, Friedman was in Northern Japan to watch Chiba Lotte Marines’ 22-year-old right-hander Roki Sasaki.
Considered the country’s most promising talent since Shohei Ohtani, Sasaki has a 100 mph fastball and would be a target for the Dodgers regardless of their situation. As they stand, Sasaki is a must for them this winter, provided the Marines make him available.
Sasaki would be classified as an international amateur player if he were to move to the Majors this season, meaning he would only be able to sign a minor league contract. Joining a rotation that could include Ohtani next season would provide him with a cost-effective remedy for the team’s costly mistakes.
But until the Dodgers sign Sasaki or another upgrade, they will have to live with their mistakes. The consequences are now all too familiar.
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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
