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The leader of the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon threatened the Republic of Cyprus.
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Hezbollah has a huge arsenal of missiles and drones to carry out its threat.
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Hezbollah may be using Cyprus as a “proxy” to threaten Greece, a regional expert said.
The leader of Lebanon’s powerful, Iran-backed Hezbollah militia first threatened the Republic of Cyprus this month, underscoring the risks of the Middle East crisis spilling over beyond the region. The threat against Cyprus is also an indirect threat against NATO member Greece, which has close ties to Israel.
“The Cypriot government must be warned that opening Cypriot airports and bases for the Israeli enemy to attack Lebanon means that the Cypriot government has become part of the war and that the resistance (Hezbollah) will tackle them as part of the war.” Hassan NasrallahHezbollah Secretary General said in a speech on June 19.
Hezbollah possesses a vast arsenal of drones, anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, enabling it to make good on Nasrallah’s threat to the eastern Mediterranean island nation.
“Hezbollah is trying to use all possible means to sow fear in Israel and its partners, in this case the Republic of Cyprus,” George Tzogopoulos, senior fellow at the Center International de Formation Européenne, a French policy research institute, told Business Insider.
“I would consider Hezbollah’s tactics as psychological warfare,” Tzogopoulos said. “While the Republic of Cyprus and Israel have enjoyed strategic cooperation for many years, the current timing is critical. That may be why the threats were made public a few days ago.”
Cyprus is a divided island. The republic that Nasrallah threatened in the south is a member of the European Union. Apart from Turkey, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is not internationally recognized in the north. These parties are separated by a buffer zone monitored by the UN. The United Kingdom also has exclusive control over two military bases in the south of the island, Akrotiri and Dhekelia, which are officially known as Sovereign Base Areas.
Predictably, the EU denounced Nasrallah’s threats, as did the republic’s main ally, Greece. Turkey, on the other hand, warned Cyprus to “stay away from the conflict” in the region.
Cyprus’ armed forces have been conducting training exercises with their Israeli counterparts on the island. Cyprus has maintained an official policy of neutrality in Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza, which it has reiterated since Nasrallah’s threat. The island serves as a hub for the maritime humanitarian corridor that the US and EU have been trying to set up to send aid to Gaza. U.S.-Cyprus relations recently reached “the highest level yet,” according to officials, raising hopes that the U.S. will fully lift the arms embargo on the island. Warmer ties will undoubtedly help Cyprus weather the threat from Hezbollah.
“Public threats are taken seriously and can provoke a political response,” Tzogopoulos said. “The Republic of Cyprus is able to expose Hezbollah’s tactics at EU level while seeking support from the US.”
“Hezbollah’s public threats could prove to be a double-edged sword for them,” Tzogopoulos added. “In terms of security, I would not expect a country like the Republic of Cyprus, which is so close to the US and Israel, to prepare against a possible attack as a result of public threats.”
Still, Hezbollah could harm Cyprus if it carries out its threat. The group flew three unarmed drones over Israel’s Karish gas rig in 2022, demonstrating its ability to threaten targets within Israel’s maritime zone. Tzogopoulos suspects that Hezbollah “could perhaps use similar tactics” within Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone, which is also well within range of the group’s drones and missiles.
“Israeli’s ability to shoot down Hezbollah’s drones in 2022 could be a model for the Republic of Cyprus,” Tzogopoulos said. “In fact, this is the content of the strategic cooperation between Israel and the Republic of Cyprus.”
Israel, the analyst noted, is also “willing to share some of its technological and military know-how” with the island republic. Before the Gaza war that began in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 terror attacks, reports emerged that Cyprus was negotiating the purchase of Israeli Merkava Mark III battle tanks and even Israel’s well-known Iron Dome air defense system.
The existing air defenses in the Cypriot National Guard are limited to short- to medium-range systems, such as the Russian Tor and Buk. These systems are no match for the powerful surface-to-surface missiles in Hezbollah’s arsenal, including the Iranian-designed Fateh series of short-range ballistic missiles, many of which can reach the Cypriot capital of Nicosia, some 180 miles away.
Hezbollah’s extensive arsenal includes up to 150,000 missiles and approximately 2,000 drones of various types, many of which are based on Iranian designs. These include a Syrian variant of Iran’s Fateh-110 missile, the M-600. That GPS-guided missile is almost 9 meters long.
Hezbollah’s drones have recently posed a major challenge to Israel’s advanced, layered air defenses, including the Iron Dome. While many of these drones are relatively low-tech, such as the cheap and locally assembled Mersad and Ayoub models, other more advanced models are based on Iranian designs such as the Ababil, Mohajer and Shahed series. In addition to launching barrages of explosive, one-way drones, Hezbollah attacked a military post in northern Israel in May with a drone that fired two missiles into Israeli airspace.
Hezbollah has also amassed an arsenal of increasingly sophisticated anti-ship missiles in recent years, most notably the Russian-made Yakhont, which has a range of 300 kilometers.
Such capabilities would undoubtedly pose a significant threat to Cyprus in the event of war.
Experts have already noted that such missiles would also allow Hezbollah to target the British Akrotiri air base on the island, which has supported U.S.-led airstrikes against Hezbollah’s ally, the Houthis in Yemen. “It would be a big risk if Hezbollah were to attack British bases in Cyprus,” Tzogopoulos said. “The British-American response to such a scenario would be strong. Nothing should be ruled out in times of general instability, but Hezbollah will pay a high price if it attacks British bases in Cyprus.”
Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, believes Nasrallah’s threat is also aimed at other countries, especially Greece. Hezbollah wants to send the message “that the entire eastern Mediterranean is within range of its attacks” if the group “feels existentially threatened” by a full-scale war with Israel, he said.
“Cyprus, while it could serve as a route for the Israeli air force to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hezbollah assets in Syria, is not nearly as important a security partner for Israel as Greece has become in recent years,” Heras BI said.
The New Lines analyst noted that the Israeli military has used Greece as a “key location” for training for a new potential war in Lebanon. Greece allows the Israeli Air Force to train over parts of the country with “topographic similarities” to Lebanon.
“Greece, a NATO country, is not a likely target for Hezbollah, but Cyprus, a country with close cultural and other ties to Greece, serves as a proxy for Greece for possible intimidation purposes,” Heras said.
“Hezbollah’s Iran-supplied missiles with longer ranges could hit Greece.”
Read the original article on Business Insider
