Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 out of 10 of the most recent presidential elections. And he doesn’t think Donald Trump will return to the White House.
Before the 2024 election, historian predicted Kamala Harris would be the next president. Here’s a look at his process.
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before receiving the title of Distinguished Professor from American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman earned a doctorate with a specialization in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard.
In addition to lecturing in the U.S. and around the world, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles. He has also been an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.
He regularly comments on politics and is best known for his election predictions.
How does Lichtman make his choices for the presidential elections?
Lichtman said in a video first reported by The New York Times that he based his prediction on 13 keys, or “big true-false questions that speak to the strength and performance of the White House party.”
Others read: Immigration: A closer look at asylum, crime and deportations ahead of Trump-Harris debate
The keys include whether:
◾ The White House party won seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
◾ The incumbent president is running for re-election.
◾ The White House party avoids a primary.
◾ There is a third party challenging the case.
◾ The economy is strong in the short term.
◾ Long-term economic growth is as good as the last two terms.
◾ The White House party has made major changes in national policy.
◾ There has been persistent social unrest during the term of office.
◾ The White House is scandal-free and the incumbent is charismatic.
◾ The challenger is not charismatic.
◾ The incumbent president is charismatic.
◾ The White House party has failed miserably on foreign policy.
◾ The White House party is achieving success on foreign policy.
Why did Allan Lichtman choose Kamala Harris?
Eight of the above keys favor Harris, while three favor Trump.
When will Trump and Harris debate?
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will debate Tuesday night at 9 p.m.
Watch the debate: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump face off in a televised presidential debate
Contributions: Karissa Waddick
This article originally appeared in the Indianapolis Star: Here’s Who Historian Allan Lichtman Predicts the Next President Will Be
