Floods affecting much of the southeastern US are showing the destructive power of higher sea levels and warmer temperatures. Now researchers at the nonprofit Climate Central are using artificial intelligence to predict how climate-related flooding will affect American communities over the next 75 years if warming continues at its current rate.
Previous research has shown that by 2050, sea levels along the U.S. coastline could rise as much as 12 inches (30 cm) above 2020 levels. High tide flooding, which can occur even in sunny weather, is expected to triple by 2050, triggering so-called centennial flooding may soon become an annual occurrence in New England.
The scale of the threat is difficult to fathom, says Ben Strauss, CEO and chief scientist at Climate Central. He hopes new AI images will help.
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“We want to change the way flood risk is communicated in this country,” Strauss said. “When the photo [is] from a local site that you know and are familiar with, then the stakes really become clear.”
Climate Central sent camera-equipped trucks along the East Coast and Gulf Coast to capture images and video of flood-prone areas. Researchers overlaid the images with elevation data to create a real-time flood map that they say paints a clearer picture of current and future flood risks.
“Some people use AI to create deepfakes, but we use AI in a very controlled way to illustrate scientific projects,” Strauss said. “When we take a photo, we analyze the position and height of every single pixel in that image, forcing the AI to only water up to flood level.”
Climate Central shared images of iconic holiday destinations along the east coast – including Cape Cod and the Jersey coast – with the Guardian, visualizing how they will change dramatically due to sea level rise and flooding.
The images show the water levels associated with 100-year floods, so called because there is a 1% chance of them occurring in any given year. However, these floods are increasing in frequency. Earlier this year, Maine experienced three centennial storms in a three-month span.
Melting ice caps are the leading cause of sea level rise, which has risen four inches in the past 30 years alone, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“Sea level rise increases the launching pad for coastal flooding,” Strauss said. “So a 1 meter rise in sea level turns a 1 meter flood into a 1.2 meter flood. It also ensures that floods of one meter height occur much more often than before.”
Researchers used the Interagency Sea Level Task Force’s interim forecasts for sea level rise, which predict a rise of 10 to 12 inches by 2050 and about 3 feet by 2100 in the Northeast. “Part of the future of sea level rise is that all the ice caps and glaciers in the world will catch up to the warming we’ve already caused, and we’ll see a lot of that by 2050,” Strauss said. “While you see a very big difference until 2100, depending on whether we warm the planet more or stabilize it to close to where we are.”
Researchers found that Cape Cod, Massachusetts, is one of the places that will be most affected by sea level rise.
“On the Cape, all of our cities are focusing on flooding as the biggest risk – everything is at stake,” said Shannon Hulst, floodplain specialist for Cape Cod’s Barnstable County. “We are both influenced by the ocean, and the ocean drives our economy.”
An estimated 5.5 million people visit Cape Cod each year, bringing approximately $730 million to the local economy.
But rising waters are eroding the cape’s famous beaches. Hulst said: “If we no longer have beaches that attract visitors, our economy will look very different.”
Low-lying coastal areas such as Cape Cod are at risk from tides, waves and storm surges.
Some adapt by moving inland; restoring coastal ecosystems such as wetlands, beaches, dunes and oyster beds; raising buildings and roads; and building sea walls. Residents also make their homes water-resistant by, for example, raising the foundation or building on stilts.
But while higher elevations can protect a property, that alone is not enough.
“Your house might not be destroyed,” said Nick Angarone, New Jersey’s Chief Resilience Officer. “But if you can’t go out to get food and water, or if you lose power and can’t get medical help and rescuers can’t reach you, are you really resilient?”
Some residents in flood-prone areas will ultimately have little choice but to accept the government’s takeover of their homes, experts say.
Strauss said he hopes images like those from Climate Central will get people thinking about local resilience planning and their own emergency preparedness.
“Even at the level of an incoming hurricane, we think an image showing how deep the flood waters could be will be much more powerful in convincing people to evacuate and protect their lives than an emergency warning message in all capital letters ,” said Strauss. “If they see that their house is halfway under water, it’s a different story.”
