WASHINGTON — Among the many permutations about how the election could end, one prospect has sparked debate in both parties: Donald Trump could win the presidency with Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives.
Such a split would be rare — no president has come to power without his party controlling the House of Representatives since 1989 — and would give Democrats substantial power over Trump’s legislative agenda.
Neither party is conceding defeat in any of the electoral battlegrounds, with both sides pushing to take full control of Washington in the final days. But polls show the election surprisingly close with shifting coalitions pointing to a path for Democrats to capture the four seats they need to take the House of Representatives even if Vice President Kamala Harris loses the presidency. according to sources at both parties with knowledge of the dynamics. and internal opinion polls.
“The most likely scenario is that the House of Representatives will go the way of the presidential election, but there is a world in which Trump wins and we lose the House – as she continues to gain ground in the suburbs and he continues to gain ground in the inner cities and on the rural areas are increasing,” said one Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the unwanted possibility. “There are only so many of those rural districts where we have real collection options.”
The theory goes something like this: The competitive districts likely to decide control of the House of Representatives are disproportionately located in the suburbs, which is a weakness for Trump. Republicans fear he could lose ground in those districts and hinder their candidates in those regions crucial to the House majority.
But polls also show that Trump could modestly improve his standing among nonwhite voters, which could propel him to win some swing states — without helping Republican House candidates, since those voters tend to live in safe blue districts are clustered together that are not close enough to contest. Trump also has a way of winning battleground states by increasing his margins of victory in rural areas, which tend to form solidly red districts already represented by Republicans.
Moreover, continued signs of ticket splits indicate that Trump’s voters will not all pull the lever to include his party’s candidates on the ballot.
Some Democrats also see that as a real possibility.
“The calculations for our battleground don’t really dictate that Harris needs to win the presidency to take the House of Representatives,” said one Democratic strategist, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
One example is Arizona, where two Republican incumbents in the suburbs — David Schweikert in Phoenix and Juan Ciscomani in Tucson — are in hot water against their Democratic rivals, even as Trump maintains a narrow lead over Harris in the state as a whole.
In a recent memo to donors and allies, the House of Representatives’ main super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, warned of headwinds in such districts, writing: “The political environment is worse for Republicans than in 2020 in a few suburban districts, namely Omaha and throughout Arizona.”
This is especially true in areas with high concentrations of well-educated voters. A recent national poll from NBC News illustrated the phenomenon, finding Trump underperforming his 2020 margin among college graduates by 13 points. But he did modestly better among voters from the urban core and among nonwhite voters who did not go to college. Overall, Harris and Trump were tied at 48%.
A second Democratic official said the path to flipping the House, even if Trump wins, is to succeed in a “powerful flip” in California, where Democrats are targeting five Republican seats, and in New York, where they going after four Republican seats. incumbents.
If Democrats have a strong night in the suburbs of New York and California, which Harris is all but guaranteed to win, they could take control of the House of Representatives even if it falls short in swing states.
The agent said they could then “afford to lose a few seats elsewhere” and still have chairman Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y.
A GOP operative involved in House races said the Republican Party expects the landscape in New York and California to look more like 2022 than the bluer political climate of 2020. The aide added that if Trump performs too well in rural areas, this could spell danger for a few Democrats. seats in the House of Representatives, such as the at-large district of Alaska and the 2nd district of Maine.
Jack Pandol, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, warned of a divided outcome.
“Extreme Democrats with hammers would mean years of sham investigations, politicized witch hunts and the stalling of President Trump’s agenda to get America back to work,” Pandol said in a statement. “That is why the American people will send President Trump a Republican House to secure the border, reduce inflation and support law enforcement.”
Asked about the prospect of a Trump presidency and a Democratic-controlled House, the Democratic House campaign arm sounded an optimistic tone that his party will win both.
“The public is tired of Republican dysfunction and wants an administration that works,” said Viet Shelton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “That’s why we’re going to take back the majority in the House of Representatives so that Democrats, working with a Harris-Walz administration, get the government back to work to defend reproductive freedom, lower costs, protect Social Security and Protect Medicare and grow the middle class. class.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
