Emmanuel MacronThe country’s decision to hold two rounds of elections on June 30 and July 7 is seen by rivals and allies as a reckless gamble that could hand political power to the far right.
His goal was to regain control of French politics, but according to opinion polls that is not what will happen.
Why are elections being held in France?
Macron did not have to call elections for the National Assembly for another three years.
But an hour after his Renew alliance was defeated in the European elections by Jordan Bardella’s far-right National Rally party and Marine Le-Pen on June 9, the French president said on TV that he could not pretend that nothing had happened.
His party came third and he said it was time for the French people and politicians “who do not recognize themselves in the extremist fever” to build a new coalition. It was, he said later, the “most responsible solution.”
What was Macron thinking?
Apparently, Macron had been thinking about calling elections for months, but it came as a surprise even to his closest colleagues.
France is on the eve of a major event: the Olympic Games in Paris run from July 26 to August 11. It has now also completed a lightning-fast election campaign.
Macron clearly wanted to break an impasse after failing to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly in June 2022. Passing laws has become a real headache: he had to implement pension reforms without a vote, while stricter immigration rules required the support of Rassemblement National.
“France needs a clear majority if it wants to act in serenity and harmony,” Macron argues. And yet he has left French politics and his own party in turmoil.
His centrist alliance Ensemble, consisting of Renaissance, Horizons and MoDem, is trailing in the polls, behind a quickly formed left Popular Front, consisting of socialists, Greens, communists and the far-left France Unbowed (LFI).
“He killed the presidential majority,” said Horizons leader and former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe.
“This decision has caused unrest, incomprehension and sometimes anger everywhere in our country, among the French,” said Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire.
Why are these elections so important?
For the first time in France, Rassemblement National could come to power despite widespread calls for voters to avoid extremes.
RN is led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella and in parliament by Marine Le Pen, who has run for president three times and lost each time.
But each time she won more votes, and now the polls say her party could become the largest in France, but just short of an absolute majority.
Le Pen also has an eye on the next presidential elections in three years.
How do the French elections work?
There are 577 seats in the National Assembly, including 13 overseas districts and 11 constituencies representing French expatriates abroad. For an absolute majority a party needs 289 seats.
The alliance with Macron had only 250 seats in the outgoing Assembly and had to build support from other parties each time to pass a law.
In the first round, all candidates who do not receive the support of 12.5% of local registered voters are eliminated.
Anyone who receives more than 50% of the votes with a turnout of at least a quarter of the local electorate automatically wins. Normally that only happens in a handful of constituencies, but the RN thinks it can win dozens this time.
The second round consists of a series of second rounds in which two, three or sometimes four candidates participate.
With a high turnout expected, Ipsos pollster Brice Teinturier estimates that there could be at least 250 seats in the race for three candidates next Sunday.
Some candidates may drop out before July 7 to give an ally a better chance of keeping a rival, for example from the far right, from winning.
What will happen?
The two-round system means nothing is certain, but political expert Jérôme Jaffré says there is a real risk that Macron’s camp fails to qualify for the second round at all or just finishes in third place.
RN has 88 seats in the outgoing parliament, but polls suggest they could win 220 to 260.
Until now, voters have traditionally used ‘le vote utile’ – tactical voting – to form a ‘barrage’ and keep the far right out.
But that barrage is more likely to favor the left than Mr. Macron’s Ensemble. And many voters in the center might prefer RN to the Popular Front, due to the dominance of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Unbowed.
What if Macron’s party loses?
Whoever wins, Macron has said he will not step down as president.
If his party loses and National Rally wins, the question is whether RN can obtain an absolute majority of 289 seats, or a relative majority comparable to that of the Macron camp since 2022.
An RN victory could open the door to nearly three years of “cohabitation,” or power-sharing, where the president of one party is head of the state and the other party runs the government.
It has happened before, with domestic policy in the hands of the prime minister and foreign and defense policy in the hands of the president.
Will Jordan Bardella become prime minister?
Not necessary.
According to the constitution, it is Mr Macron who decides who will lead the next government. And Mr Bardella says he will not become prime minister if RN does not get that absolute majority: “I do not want to be the president’s assistant.”
A relative majority, he said, would not allow him to act: “I am not going to sell the French people measures or actions that I could not carry out.”
But Macron must reflect the composition of the new Assembly, so if National Rally is the predominant party he could find it difficult to choose anyone else.
Party campaign posters proclaim Mr. Bardella as prime minister. He has a strong presence on TikTok, but his biggest job since 2019 has been as a member of the European Parliament.
Have you lived together in France before?
This has been the case for more than 20 years, because parliamentary elections are now held shortly after the presidential elections and voting preferences do not change much during that time.
There have been three periods of cohabitation in the past:
1997-2002 Socialist Lionel Jospin was Prime Minister under center-right President Jacques Chirac
1993-95 Centre-right Prime Minister Edouard Balladour worked with Socialist President François Mitterrand during his second term
1986-1988 Jacques Chirac was Prime Minister under President François Mitterrand
But nothing has really prepared France for the kind of coexistence that could take place after July 7.
Is Rally National still far right?
Marine Le Pen has spent years trying to “de-diabolize,” or detox, her party from her father’s anti-Semitic and extremist roots. Jean-Marie Le Penand are co-founders of the National Front, which they renamed Rassemblement National.
Today, the party’s focus is on the cost of living crisis, but many of its strict anti-immigration policies are still in place. Moreover, a ruling this year by the Council of State, France’s highest administrative court, confirmed that the party can be considered “extreme right-wing.”
French football captain Kylian Mbappé has warned his countrymen that “the extremes are at the gates of power”, prompting Mr Bardella to hit back at sports multimillionaires who “give lessons to people struggling to make ends meet”.
Mr Bardella wants to ban French double nationalists from sensitive strategic posts, calling them “semi-nationalists”. He also wants to limit social benefits for immigrants and abolish the automatic right to French citizenship for children with foreign-born parents.
But a planned ban on wearing headscarves in public is not a priority for the time being.
The anti-NATO and anti-EU policies have also been softened and Rassemblement National’s close ties with Vladimir Putin’s Russia have been quietly severed.
Leaving the EU has not been on the agenda since 2022. Instead, Bardella is focusing on cutting VAT on energy, a list of 100 essential goods and repealing Macron’s pension reforms within months.
What does the left promise?
The New Popular Front is an unlikely alliance of socialists, greens, communists and France Unbowed.
They have promised to scrap Macron’s pension and immigration reforms and their platform is further based on the idea that “it’s either the far right or us.”
President Macron has attacked the group as being “totally immigrationist” and allowing people to change gender at their town hall, an accusation that has sparked accusations of transphobia.
The Popular Front has pledged to combat anti-Semitism, even though some candidates have been accused of making anti-Semitic statements.
