WASHINGTON (AP) — Big shifts within small groups and small shifts within large groups have fueled Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The Republican candidate won by sticking with his traditional coalition — white voters, voters without a college degree and older voters — while making crucial gains among younger voters and black and Hispanic men, according to AP VoteCast, a far-reaching survey of more than 120,000 voters . voters across the country.
His Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, made small gains — mostly among white urban men with college degrees — but it wasn’t enough to offset her losses elsewhere.
Trump has increased his share of the youth vote
Younger voters made up a larger share of Trump’s coalition compared to his voters four years ago.
That happened because Trump benefited from winning just over half of voters over 45, while Harris won about the same share for voters under 45. But older voters make up a larger share of the electorate than younger ones — and that worked to Trump’s advantage. . In the 2024 presidential election, about six in ten voters were over the age of 45.
He retained about the same share of older voters as in the 2020 presidential election, but he also made small but significant gains among younger voters. In the last election he won four in ten voters under the age of 45. In these elections he won almost half.
Looking at the youngest voters – those between the ages of 18 and 29 – Trump has significantly increased his share of the youth vote. Nearly half, 46%, voted for him over Harris, up from 36% in the last election.
Trump won among voters without a college degree
About six in 10 Trump voters did not have a college degree, compared to about half of Harris voters.
A majority of voters in this election did not have a college degree, and most of those non-college-educated voters supported Trump. He won 55% of voters without a college degree, compared to about 4 in 10 who chose Harris. That marked a decline for Democrats — in 2020, Biden trailed Trump even among voters without a college degree, earning 47% of their votes, compared to Trump’s 51%.
Trump’s gains among non-college voters came primarily from non-white men without college degrees who shifted to the right, as well as from younger voters in general without college degrees. But he has also won over more non-white women without college degrees than in the last election.
Harris maintained Biden’s support among college graduates, who totaled 44% of voters. A majority of college-educated voters supported Harris, and about four in 10 voted for Trump. But that wasn’t enough when she was unable to capture the same share of voters without a college degree.
Trump won white voters while making inroads with black and Hispanic voters
Trump’s coalition was predominantly white this year, as in 2020. But the coalition was more diverse than four years ago because of the gains he made with relatively small groups.
White voters made up about three-quarters of the electorate, and nationally there have been no significant changes — about the same share voted for Trump as in 2020. He managed to make a small breakthrough among Black and Latino voters, and every group was represented in these elections about 1 in 10 voters.
Nationally, about 8 in 10 black voters supported Harris. But that was down from about 9 in 10 in the last presidential election that chose Biden. And while Harris won more than half of Hispanic voters, that was slightly less than the roughly 6 in 10 that Biden won.
Trump increased his share of young black men — something that helped form a key Democratic voting group. About three in 10 black men under 45 voted for Trump, about double the share he got in 2020. Young Latinos — especially young Latino men — were more open to Trump than in 2020. About half of Latino men under 45 voted for Harris, compared with about 6 in 10 who went for Biden.
Harris narrowly carried the suburbs, but Trump won the rural votes
Just like four years ago, Trump drew more strength from the countryside than his Democratic opponent.
Nearly half of voters, 45%, say they live in the suburbs. About half of those voters chose Harris, while 46% chose Trump. Trump won about 6 in 10 voters who live in small towns or rural areas, while Harris won about 6 in 10 urban voters. These numbers roughly matched support during the 2020 election.
Education also played a role here. Trump made slight gains among urban voters without a college degree, as well as among nonwhite voters in urban communities and rural areas. He also attracted slightly more white men without college degrees in urban areas, with about 6 in 10 supporting him, compared to about half in 2020.
However, those gains for Trump among urban voters were offset by Harris’ improvement over Biden, with white men with college degrees living in urban areas. She won about two-thirds of this group, compared to about half for Biden in 2020.
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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters lasted eight days and ended when the polling stations closed. The interviews took place in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from online panels who are not likely to vote. The margin of sampling error for voters in general is estimated at plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.
