How economic concerns and low voter turnout in Democratic strongholds helped Trump win

• In the 2024 elections, Donald Trump won 312 electoral votes, compared to Kamala Harris’ 226 electoral votes.

• Each candidate tried to present themselves as the better steward of the economy.

• But newly elected President Trump emerged victorious, capturing the seven key battleground states.

Heading into Election Day, the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump appeared deadlocked, with polls showing a close race among the seven swing states.

But Trump came out on top, with the president-elect sweeping battleground states and making critical gains among a broad swath of the electorate, from young voters and Latino men to suburban voters and rural voters.

The president-elect’s victory came as he maintained his long-standing economic lead through Election Day.

Here’s a look at why the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and Trump was so different from this year’s contest between Harris and Trump.

Trump made significant progress in the suburbs, where the economy was a key issue

In 2020, Biden emerged victorious in the suburbs, winning voters in this key group 50% to 48%, according to CNN exit polls.

Harris hoped that strong support from suburban voters, especially among college-educated women, would help her, as her campaign convinced her that her background as a persecutor would fit well with Trump’s — who in the course of his time has become embroiled in a series of legal issues. pressure to overturn the 2020 election results.

While Harris performed well in many of the suburbs that paved the way for Biden’s 2020 election, she simply did not win by the margins she needed to overcome Trump’s outpouring of support from white voters without a college degree, as well as the decline in support from Latino and Asian voters compared to the president’s performance.

This year, Trump won suburban voters 51% to 47%, according to CNN exit polls, a four-point lead that allowed him to hold the line in areas where Democrats hoped to boost the score. And this shift allowed him to flip Maricopa County and win back Arizona, which had been one of Biden’s most impressive victories in 2020.

As with other groups, the economy was critical to suburban voters, with inflation and housing costs top of mind. In Arizona, a state dominated by Phoenix and its sprawling Maricopa suburbs, the economy was the second most important issue for voters, after democracy.

According to CNN’s exit polls, 42% of the Arizona electorate said the economy was in “bad” shape, and 89% of those voters supported Trump, compared to 10% for Harris. By comparison, only 6% of respondents thought the economy was “excellent,” and 99% of those voters supported Harris, while just 1% supported Trump.

Trump delivered an economic message focused on lowering costs, continuing construction of new housing on federal lands and severing government relationships that he said were hampering growth. In Western states like Arizona and Nevada, where housing affordability has been a major issue, the issue took on added resonance. Harris had high-profile economic proposals of his own, including a $25,000 tax break for first-time homebuyers, but that wasn’t enough to make the race a success.

Turnout fell in key Democratic areas

After Biden left the race in July and Harris stepped into her role as Democratic Party standard-bearer, she was faced with running a 107-day campaign. Although Harris had been Biden’s No. 2 for more than three years at that point, she was still unknown to a significant portion of the electorate.

Despite Biden’s waning support for groups that fueled his 2020 victory — including Black, Latino and young voters — he was a known commodity. And Harris, in many ways, had to reintroduce herself to millions of Americans who were open to supporting her but had reservations about the Biden administration on issues like inflation and border security.

From Harris’ first major rally as a 2024 presidential candidate in Wisconsin to her election night turnout in vote-rich Philadelphia, she crisscrossed swing states, aiming to hold on to the blue wall battleground states while also making gains in the Sun Belt kept an eye on.

But compared to 2020, turnout fell on the Democratic side.

Four years ago, the Biden-Harris ticket won more than 81 million votes, compared to 74 million votes for Trump and then-Vice President Mike Pence. So far, Harris has earned just under 75 million votes, compared to just over 77 million votes for Trump.

Democratic strength in New Jersey and New York fell sharply, with Harris doing worse than Biden in those solidly blue states.

However, voters have increased their numbers in several key battlegrounds.

Georgia set a record turnout of nearly 5.3 million voters this year, and despite Harris losing the state by 2.2 points (50.7% to 48.5%), she earned more votes in the Peach State than Biden did then he won the state by 0.23 percent (49.47% to 49.24%) in 2020.

Harris won 2,548,017 votes in Georgia this year, compared to Biden’s 2,473,633 votes four years ago. But Trump won 2,663,117 votes this year, giving him a 115,100 vote lead over Harris.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, more votes were counted between the two major party candidates this year compared to 2020, but this did not benefit Harris as Democratic strength waned in cities like Detroit and Philadelphia.

For example, Harris won Philadelphia, the most populous city in Pennsylvania, by a sizable margin of 79% to 20%. But in 2020, Biden won Philadelphia 81% to 18%. And while Biden earned 604,175 votes in the city, Harris currently has 568,571 votes there, according to NBC News.

Turnout fell across Philadelphia this year, allowing Trump to make gains in what has long been known as one of the most Democratic cities in the country.

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