WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump has won the presidency after firmly holding on to his core base of voters and somewhat expanding his coalition to include several groups that have traditionally been part of the Democratic base. That finding comes from AP VoteCast, a large-scale survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide showing which issues were important to voters in this election.
Trump captured a small but significant share of black and Hispanic voters, and made small gains among men and women. While Trump chipped away at parts of the Democratic coalition, Vice President Kamala Harris couldn’t make enough of her own gains. Trump managed to keep his traditionally older, white voter base in check, and he expanded his margins against other groups somewhat into a winning coalition.
A look at how five key demographic groups voted, according to AP VoteCast.
Most Trump voters were white, a trend that continued from 2020
Just over 8 in 10 Trump voters in this election were white, about in line with 2020. About two-thirds of Harris’ voters were white, largely in line with President Joe Biden’s coalition in the last election. White voters make up the largest share of the voting electorate in the United States, and their support has not changed significantly nationally compared to 2020.
A majority of white voters voted for Trump, unchanged from the 2020 election which he narrowly lost. About 4 in 10 white voters supported Harris, which is about the same as what Biden received in 2020. White voters were also more likely to support Trump than Harris and Biden in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, even though Trump lost those states in 2020.
Trump’s share of black voters rose slightly, largely driven by younger men
Trump managed to make a small breakthrough nationally among black voters, who made up about 1 in 10 voters nationwide.
Nationally, about 8 in 10 black voters supported Harris. But that was down from about 9 in 10 in the last presidential election that chose Biden.
Trump roughly doubled his share of young black men — helping him become the key Democratic voting group. About three in 10 black men under 45 voted for Trump, about double the number he got in 2020.
Slightly more Hispanic voters supported Trump in 2020
Although Harris won more than half of Hispanic voters, that support was slightly lower than the roughly six-in-ten Hispanic voters Biden won.
Hispanic voters were more open to Trump than in 2020. About half of Latino men voted for Harris, compared with about 6 in 10 who went for Biden.
Small gains among women benefited Trump
Trump enjoyed small gains among both men and women, with Harris modestly underperforming compared to Biden in 2020.
Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was slightly smaller than Biden’s. Biden won 55% of women, while 43% went for Trump. His support remained steady among white women — just over half supported him, similar to 2020.
Among men, Trump saw a modest increase
Trump made similar gains among men, with a modest shift increasing his advantage.
The shifts by gender were concentrated among younger voters, as well as among Black and Latino voters. White voters of all genders and older voters of all genders voted the same way in 2024 as they did in 2020.
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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters lasted eight days and ended when the polling stations closed. The interviews took place in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from online panels who are not likely to vote. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated at plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.
