Dominance in defeat.
That’s how Corbin Burnes, the consensus top free-agent pitcher this winter, ended his 2024 season.
In Game 1 of the wild-card series against the visiting Kansas City Royals, the burly right-hander was sensational, allowing just one run over eight scintillating frames. It turned out to be the longest start of the entire postseason. Still, Burnes’ Orioles couldn’t score, not even once, and so he left Camden Yards that night with an unfortunate loss, his teammates congratulating him and apologizing to him at the same time.
Despite the unsatisfactory outcome, Burnes’ year as an Oriole was a success. He was acquired from Milwaukee in February for a pair of prospects and has generally performed like the ace Baltimore expected him to be. And while the Orioles are reportedly interested in a reunion, they will face serious competition to secure Burnes’ services as the 2021 NL Cy Young will land a contract worth $200 million.
But is Burnes worth that kind of investment? What are the reasons for concern? Can his next team count on him as a true No. 1 starter? Or is there a threat of a decline?
A look back at Burnes’ 2024
Burnes was very good through the first four months of the season, pitching a 2.47 ERA over 22 starts despite less encouraging peripheral stats. Notably, his strikeout rate dropped to a career low. Ultimately it got to him. In August, Burnes took a hit, allowing 20 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings over his first four starts of the month.
But during his performance on August 28, Burnes made a huge adjustment. He changed the release point of his signature cutter, an offering he throws almost 50% of the time. The pitch had become slightly faster, giving it more carry and less horizontal movement, making it much less unique and much more hitable. The change brought immediate results.
In September, Burnes scuttled the short-break slider he had used all year in favor of a longer sweeper – with great success. Armed with an updated cutter and a new breaking ball, Burnes’ strikeout rate rose from 18.5% in August to 27.7% in September and October. And although he struck out just three batters in that stunning wild-card start, Burnes was in complete control, choosing to pitch to contact to work deeper into the game.
What about Burnes’ strikeout rate?
Aside from the late-season uptick, Burne’s strikeout rate has gradually declined since his 2021 Cy Young season. That trend has occurred despite no apparent decline in Burnes’ stuff or speed. Although his cutter has retained its power over the years, batters seem to gradually adapt to the pitch; the swing-and-miss rate has steadily declined year over year, from 33.2% in 2021 to 19% in 2024.
Why? It probably has something to do with the field becoming less unique over time. In 2021, only seven starting pitchers threw a cutter faster than 90 mph. By 2024, that number had more than tripled, with 24 starters throwing their cutter that hard. Burnes’ cutter remains something of a unicorn – only Reds pitcher Graham Ashcraft threw his cutter harder in 2024 – but the league as a whole is certainly becoming… Burnes-ier.
Bulk is value
When Burnes won his Cy Young in 2021, beating Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, he did so despite throwing just 167 innings, compared to Wheeler’s 213. That result generated a lot of discussion about the merits of bulk versus effectiveness. It’s ironic, then, that since 2021, only two pitchers — Logan Webb and Aaron Nola — have totaled more innings than Burnes.
In an era where starting pitchers aren’t expected to work deep into games, Burnes is a relative outlier. Only eight other pitchers logged more than 190 innings last season. Only 22 other pitchers made at least 32 starts. Simply being available can be extremely valuable. Frankie Montas, who posted a 4.84 ERA over 30 starts in 2024, just earned a two-year, $34 million contract from the Mets. Posting pays off, which is good news for a horse like Burnes looking to make money.
Which teams are potentially suitable for Burnes?
New York Mets: Sixty percent of the team’s 2024 rotation — Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana — are free agents. President of baseball operations David Stearns filled one of those spots with the addition of Montas, but the Mets still need a front-line starter and have a lot of money to spend. Remember, Burnes and Stearns were together in Milwaukee for a number of years.
Baltimore Orioles: The most obvious match is usually the team that just hired a player; the Orioles are the only team with a hole the size of Corbin Burnes. Baltimore hasn’t handed out a multi-year contract to free agents since 2018, but a new ownership group led by billionaire David Rubenstein should have a greater appetite for money.
Boston Red Sox: If Juan Soto, the biggest prize of the winter, signs somewhere other than Boston, Red Sox fans will be clamoring for a top player. And while left-hander Max Fried is likely a better fit in Boston’s righty rotation, no Red Sox fan would be outraged by the addition of Burnes.
Toronto blue jays: Like the Red Sox, Burnes could be Toronto’s lynchpin in Soto. Like Boston, a left-handed player would make more sense, as would spending money on a hitter.
Los Angeles Evaders: Does signing Blake Snell prevent the Dodgers from signing Corbin Burnes? Probably, but would anyone be shocked if the deep-pocketed juggernaut kept the money flowing? No, not at all.
Washington Nationals: Are the Nationals ready to win in 2025? Probably not. But they weren’t ready in 2011 either, when they signed Jayson Werth to a huge deal. There’s probably (understandable) concern about handing out another long-term contract to a pitcher after the Patrick Corbin-Stephen Strasburg catastrophes, but Burnes could bring the Nats closer to contention.
Overall, Burnes is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball — perhaps even the top five if you believe his late-summer adjustments were real. His ability to make seasonal changes speaks volumes about his adaptability and athletic intelligence. Not many pitchers could pull off something like that.
And while predicting pitcher injuries is a drunken game of roulette, Burnes has been as reliable as anyone. It’s obviously not ideal if his strikeout rate continues to decline, especially if you’re paying him $230 million, but Burnes has shown he can get enough outs without blowing hitters away. The floor is relatively high here and the ceiling, as he showed in the wildcard, remains supersonic.
He won’t always be a top performer, but for now that’s what Corbin Burnes is.
