MINNEAPOLIS — Trying to plan for the weather is a frustration that knows no bounds. But new data from the National Weather Service shows that some U.S. states have an easier time coming up with accurate seven-day forecasts than others.
Coastal cities — like those in states like Florida, Louisiana, California and parts of Texas — have much more accurate weather forecasts thanks to the ocean. The ocean absorbs the sun’s heat throughout the day and gradually releases it, acting as a natural thermal regulator.
Dry conditions in the deserts of the Southwest work in a similar way, preventing the formation of strong weather systems and allowing for much more accurate forecasting.
Unfortunately, states in the middle of the country have no natural weather deterrents, making weather forecasts much more difficult to predict.
According to the NWS, states in the Great Plains can only make accurate weather forecasts for up to two days in advance, making it one of the most unpredictable areas in the country.
In Minnesota, even that number varies depending on where in the state you live.
According to an accurate forecasting tool, places like Bemidji and Rochester can only accurately predict the weather up to one day in advance, with warmer months being easier to predict than colder months.
In Minneapolis or St. Paul, the forecast can be accurate up to two days in advance, with both warm and cold months being equally predictable.
WCCO meteorologist Adam Del Rosso says that despite this new data, it’s important to remember that forecasting the weather is an incredibly complex process. However, he said, “As we get more and better tools in our forecasting toolbox, the overall accuracy of forecasts everywhere continues to increase.”
Florida traditionally has the highest forecast accuracy, with forecasts that can look out seven days. The southwestern region of the US has forecast accuracy out to five or six days. The East Coast is only accurate out to three or four days.
