How Patriots can move up in 2025 first-round pick in Week 16

What should Patriots fans watch in Week 16 when it comes to the team’s draft order position and scenarios?

Let’s break it down.

Patriots have a good chance to move up to No. 2

The easiest way for the Patriots to move from No. 3 to No. 2 in the first-round draft order is to lose on the road to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday and let the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

The Patriots are heavy underdogs to the Bills, and given how great Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has played, it would be quite shocking if New England were to pull off the upset. The Raiders aren’t very good, but they have a favorable matchup with Mac Jones and the Jaguars. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) model gives the Raiders a 55.9 percent chance of beating the Jaguars.

The Patriots could also move up to No. 2 if the Raiders lost but the Giants won their game against the Falcons. Although Falcons rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. making his first career start, ESPN’s FPI still gives Atlanta a 63.4 percent chance of beating New York.

It’s possible the Patriots move up to the No. 1 pick, but that would require losing to the Bills, combined with the Raiders and Giants winning.

• Giants at Falcons: Sundays at 1:00 PM ET on FOX

• Patriots at Bills: Sundays at 4:25 PM ET on CBS

• Jaguars at Raiders: Sundays at 4:25 PM ET on CBS

Why a top-two pick is important

There could be a pretty big difference in value between the No. 2 and No. 3 picks this year, and that’s because the class of 2025 only has two quarterback prospects — Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders — who are worth taking are to be taken with a top-five pick. That could change in the coming months, but right now it’s a pretty weak QB class.

The Patriots don’t need a quarterback as it appears they already hit a home run with the Maye pick. But in terms of trade value, it’s much better to have one of these two picks and be able to offer another team a shot at a franchise QB. Pick No. 3 will still have value, especially if teams covet Colorado WR/CB and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, but because of the quarterbacks, it won’t have the same value as the top two picks.

Teams are more likely to trade up for a potential star quarterback than a highly rated wide receiver or cornerback. Example: In the last ten drafts, zero wide receivers and only two cornerbacks were taken with a top-three selection.

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Therefore, it would be great for the Patriots if the Raiders and/or Giants win at least one more game. If all three of these teams lose, No. 3 is the highest the Patriots can draft. It will take one more Giants or Raiders win for the Patriots to move up.

What are the odds that the Patriots move up to No. 2 or higher? Pretty good, according to ESPN’s FPI, which predicts the Patriots will ultimately earn the No. 2 pick, along with a 23.6 percent chance of going all the way to the No. 1 spot.

The last time the Patriots had a top-three pick in back-to-back drafts was in 1993 (Drew Bledsoe, No. 1) and 1994 (Willie McGinest, No. 4).

Summary

The best-case scenario for the Patriots on Sunday is a close loss to the Bills.

It is important that Maye plays well and that the team as a whole shows improvement in key areas. New England needs to force more turnovers, reduce penalties, better protect Maye, generate a more consistent pass rush, etc.

But the scoreboard is what really matters. Another win in the final three games has the potential to move the Patriots a few spots lower in the draft order, and that could have a very negative impact on the team’s offseason.

If you’re a Patriots fan and want to see the team’s draft pick position improve this weekend, here’s what you’re rooting for: