Whatever spectacle is at stake in the NBA — as soon as the clock strikes 6:00 PM ET, as soon as free agents can start contacting potential teams, as soon as yet more deals shake the league’s landscape like a snow globe — in July will present the first case study of how front offices and agents will deal with the new math and constraints that come with the imposing second apron of the collective bargaining agreement.
That’s the ultimate context for Paul George to reject his player selection and test the open market. That’s the cold, hard truth that underscores Denver’s fate in keeping Kentavious Caldwell-Pope after losing Bruce Brown a year ago. It’s why the Warriors have tried to find trades—like bringing in George—with Chris Paul’s non-guaranteed salary, sources said, because Golden State could still hold onto its valuable salary slot and further improve its roster around Stephen Curry.
It doesn’t matter if Steve Ballmer or Joe Lacob has unlimited pockets and is willing to pay the fines that come with wading into the NBA’s new second apron, like the luxury tax of yesteryear. The ability to fund that account doesn’t give front offices free passes that suddenly give them access to every mid-level spending power, the ability to collect salary in return, send cash, or use exceptions for traded players — let alone the frozen draft picks looming like an ogre. It’s one thing when the Boston Celtics have six of their top eight players all under contract and under the age of 30. The Knicks’ menacing core is even younger and more team-controlled. It’s something else building around aging star veterans who are all likely looking at the final contracts of their illustrious careers.
The Clippers have made it clear so far that they have no intention of giving any player — not Kawhi Leonard, not George, not James Harden — a contract of more than three years, league sources told Yahoo Sports, to Los Angeles the future flexibility to avoid the penalties of the second platform. The two sides have had months to find an extension similar to Leonard’s three-year, $153 million deal in January, exchanging various proposals, sources said, but that critical lack of a fourth year from the Clippers, which could be the difference of about $60 million is what has prompted George to listen to offers from the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic once free agency starts, sources confirm to Yahoo Sports, in addition to George’s incumbent Clippers. The reality that trading George to Golden State would have returned 75 cents on the dollar — yet still cost a dollar and still involved those second apron challenges — was a major deterrent in these failed trade negotiations .
Both the 76ers and Magic, sources said, are willing to deal George with four-year contracts, as would the Warriors if George had exercised his $48.7 million player option for the upcoming 2024-25 season. There is another team hanging on the edge of this situation. The Utah Jazz have all the cap space, veteran salaries and exorbitant draft capital to add the type of co-stars — like Mikal Bridges, once upon a time — that the team tried to land this week, sources said, before New York completed six years of first- round draft assets for the Villanova product – to round out a roster that already includes All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen. That appears to have been Utah’s dreamiest plan this summer, according to league figures with knowledge of the situation, trading one or even two bona fide pieces and then enticing George to leave Los Angeles for Salt Lake City. That reflection of how George ended up in Los Angeles in 2019 — when the Clippers sent a bounty to OKC for his services, and thus brought in Leonard — is pretty fascinating, though it’s incredibly unlikely that George makes it a reality.
George doesn’t want to leave Los Angeles because of a rift with president Lawrence Frank or a disdain for playing with Leonard and Harden, sources said. That would seem to simply come down to a 34-year-old All-Star, already barred from signing a five-year contract thanks to the NBA’s 38-and-older rule, taking advantage of his latest crack at the plate on the open market. If George does flee the Clippers, Harden is still expected to find his own three-year deal, as Los Angeles has explored ways to get under the second apron to open up access to the $5.2 million taxpayer mid-level, sources said. The Clippers are expected to reach an extension agreement with center Ivica Zubac later in their order of operations, sources said.
What are the Golden State Warriors’ plans?
The Warriors face their own dilemma, having already reached an agreement with Paul to move the final year and $30 million guarantee date on his deal. What big swings remain is that Golden State has also put Andrew Wiggins on the trading block, according to league sources. Options range from sending picks for Brandon Ingram to potentially acquiring Zach LaVine, sources said. But if no deal materializes and the Warriors do indeed lose Klay Thompson as Golden State and league personnel currently believe will happen, the Warriors are considering their best options, sources said, with the entire mid-level exception potentially becoming available to Golden State.
That market is one of the more interesting aspects of this offseason, where it appears the majority of NBA teams are planning to use less than the full $12.8 million MLE. Another aspect of the new CBA allows front offices to opt out of spending that MLE this summer, then use it as an exception for traded players to acquire any new piece whose salary falls below that number. A player’s willingness to receive $6 million could even be the difference between someone like Buddy Hield making more than the taxpayer’s $5.2 million MLE. If Hield were to sign that from Golden State, for example, the Warriors could either sign another player for $4 million above the veteran NBA minimum salary or pocket the remaining cap space as TPE.
And it’s shaping up to be a fascinating mid-market market, especially with the rumor that Thompson might be willing to accept that amount of money to join the Lakers or Clippers. That would be a significant drop from the two-year, approximately $50 million offer Thompson rejected at the start of last season. He is still on the list of secondary wing options for Philly if George rejects the Sixers, sources said. Dallas seems to be one of the, if not the according to sources the biggest candidates for Thompson.
Dallas has plenty of work to do on the perimeter. The Mavericks already traded Tim Hardaway Jr.’s expiring $16.1 million contract to Detroit for three second-round picks, bringing back 24-year-old swingman Quentin Grimes, who is entering the final year of his contract, and $4.3 million on his rookie deal. Adding Grimes, through one lens, would also allow Dallas to part with Josh Green in order to upgrade the Mavericks’ struggling roster with more championship-proven talent. A sign-and-trade scenario with Green as the outgoing salary would allow Dallas to ink Thompson to a nice contract.
The Mavericks have been thinking pretty creatively about how to improve their NBA Finals-winning roster around Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving — while still holding on to standout wing Derrick Jones Jr. The first step was to move Hardaway. If Caldwell-Pope had opted in for his $15.4 million 2024-25 extension, the Mavericks would have been first in line to try to broker a trade with Denver to acquire his services, sources said. Thompson now appears to be the veteran wing most likely to join Dallas at this point.
All this tinkering was originally based on Jones trying to reward his minimum salary contract from 2023-24, but that will now cause some complications after the bouncing winger ended his previous representation on June 26. According to a letter from the players’ union, Jones technically can’t sign with a new agent until 15 days after he files paperwork to make a change in agency — which won’t happen until after the NBA’s moratorium period is long over. It’s a developing situation worth keeping an eye on.
The Nuggets’ free agency, resulting from the likely loss of Caldwell-Pope, is tied to all of the above. Denver was also a team weighing how to sneak into the potential opt-in trade sweepstakes for George, league sources confirmed to Yahoo Sports. Denver is currently prepared to lose the veteran two-way wing, sources said, who was an integral fifth starter for the Nuggets’ 2023 NBA title run. Caldwell-Pope is said to have strong interest from both Philadelphia and Orlando, where both teams want Caldwell-Pope more than two years and $50 million, league officials said.
The Nuggets are also involved in trade scenarios for backup big man Zeke Nnaji, sources said. Denver had offered the 23-year-old from Arizona a chance to fill a clear backup role behind center Nikola Jokic, but traded up in Wednesday’s NBA Draft to select a more predictable replacement in Dayton center DaRon Holmes II. Nnaji’s $8 million salary could be an outgoing package, perhaps to bring back Serbian point guard Vasilije Micić from Charlotte, who has been a target for Denver, sources said.
If Denver moves Nnaji, the Nuggets would be under the second apron and have access to that $5.2 million taxpayer MLE. One player the Nuggets considered for that role was Russell Westbrook, sources said, before the veteran opted for his $4 million with the Clippers.
Another veteran to consider in that context is Dario Šarić, sources said, who the Nuggets have coveted for some time.
After Denver did not give Collin Gillespie its qualifying offer, the former Villanova point guard is expected to draw interest from two sides of Atlanta, Charlotte, Minnesota and Phoenix, sources said, with a possibility for two sides and to eventually earn a roster spot to deserve. The Suns have been linked to all kinds of minimum-salary guards, from Kyle Lowry to Monte Morris — and even a possible reunion with Paul, should he ultimately be cut by the Warriors, according to NBA personnel.
