By Tom Bergin
(Reuters) – Reuters sought to estimate the cash flow generated by former President Donald J. Trump’s various businesses to understand how they have changed over the past decade and the extent to which the more than $500 million in court judgments against him could weigh on them.
Reuters used recognized methodologies and consulted experts from the various sectors in which The Trump Organization operates to estimate approximately $80 million in cash after deducting operating expenses from Trump’s businesses in 2024.
As for Trump’s real estate interests – the business he built his reputation on – Reuters looked at each of the properties Trump has a stake in separately. For income-producing properties, such as his office tower at 40 Wall Street or the retail units in Trump Tower in New York, Reuters used net operating income and rents disclosed by The Trump Organization between 2011 and 2021 as part of the New York fraud case against the group. Reuters also used information about the commercial mortgage-backed securities in which the group’s mortgages are packaged, and financial information from property tax appeals.
These were adjusted by Reuters for additional costs such as routine capital expenditures and leasing costs based on expert guidance and historical averages. Reuters also deducted debt costs, which can be determined from its Office of Government Ethics (OGE) Candidate financial disclosure, government ownership data and information released as part of the fraud litigation.
Historical net operating income (NOI) figures have been verified against tax returns and adjusted to reflect current market conditions, vacancy rates and other variables, based on expert advice. There is uncertainty about rents and occupancy levels.
In total, Reuters estimated that Trump will generate free cash flow of about $3 million in 2024 from leasing and selling properties in New York, San Francisco, Chicago, Las Vegas and Florida. It would have been higher had a roughly $12 million loan related to Trump Plaza in New York not been repaid in April.
For Trump’s golf and resort properties, Reuters used published financial statements where available, and net operating income figures prepared by an expert hired by the New York attorney general in the fraud case. The expert’s NOI calculations were broadly similar to, though generally slightly lower than, income figures in appraisals prepared by a Trump expert in the case. They also largely matched tax return information released by the Ways & Means Committee in 2022.
Reuters adjusted 2021 earnings based on club revenue increases predicted by the Trump expert. Reuters compared the revenue projections, made in 2023, to industry trends and revenue figures reported by Trump in his August 2024 OGE disclosure.
Reuters’ forecast rules out major capital expenditures for upgrades. Reuters found no reports of major new upgrades planned at his properties through 2024, but the estimate that Trump’s clubs could generate about $70 million this year could be too high.
Trump makes money by licensing his name to foreign real estate developers and publishes the income he receives in his OGE financial disclosures. Reuters estimated that Trump will receive a similar amount from existing deals in 2024 as he did in 2023 — a possible overestimate — and added amounts for each of the two deals announced this year to match payments he received on previous deals.
Reuters estimated the loss of the Trump Corporation, the entity that provides a centralized management function to the Trump Organization, at $11 million based on figures from Trump’s tax returns released in 2022 by the House Ways & Means Committee.
Reuters has excluded the millions of dollars in legal fees related to Trump’s various lawsuits, saying much of it is paid for by his campaign supporters. Reuters has also reduced the cost of operating his fleet of planes to a fraction of historical levels, because his campaign pays to lease planes from him.
Reuters also ruled out any federal income tax payments.
(Reporting by Tom Bergin in London. Editing by Tom Lasseter, Benjamin Lesser and Claudia Parsons.)
