Former President Donald Trump has been found guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying company records in his Manhattan criminal trial, adding a new layer of uncertainty to an already unprecedented campaign.
As acconvicted criminalTrump is not deterred from continuing with this campaign for president, as the constitution does not prohibit candidates from running for president even if they have been convicted of a crime. In fact, there is precedent for a candidate running from behind bars: In 1920, Socialist Party candidate Eugene V. Debs ran for president from a federal prison in Atlanta.
Trump is the first former US president to be found guilty of crimes, and the first major party candidate to run for office after being found guilty of a crime. Here’s how his conviction could change the 2024 campaign:
How Trump can campaign after his conviction
Now that he has been convicted, Trump will almost certainly appeal the jury’s decision and will likely be able to return to the campaign trail as the trial continues.
The next development in the case will come at sentencing, currently scheduled for July 11. Judge Juan Merchan has broad discretion over when sentencing will take place and what the sentence will look like. Trump faces up to four years in prison and a $5,000 fine for each of 34 counts of falsifying business records. The sentencing options available to Merchan include jail time, probation, conditional discharge, fines or house arrest.
The judge could impose restrictions on his travel, such as banning Trump from leaving the state and confiscating his passport, but Merchan has said he does not want to interfere with his ability to campaign.
“I would think that the judge would not dare interfere with his right to speak to the American public, because it is also the voters’ right to be informed,” said John Coffee, a professor at Columbia Law School and a expert in the field of business. governance and white-collar crime.
In a recent study of dozens of cases brought by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office in which falsifying corporate records was the most serious charge at arraignment, attorney and author Norm Eisen found that about one in ten of these cases resulted in a prison sentence.
“I find that fascinating,” says Caroline Polisi, a criminal defense attorney and professor at Columbia Law School. “Many commentators say the reason he isn’t locked up is because the logistics of it involving the Secret Service would be too much. On the other hand, if you say he should be treated like any other defendant, we have a lot of data showing that 90% of other defendants in this situation would not receive any jail time.”
The impact of the conviction on Trump’s ability to campaign could depend largely on what sentence Merchan ultimately hands down, and when Trump will serve it.
“In the context of him being found guilty and then being sentenced to no prison time, I don’t think it will make a big difference,” Polisi added. “There may be some minor issues. He may not be able to vote for himself. But other than that, I don’t think it will cause any problems.”
In determining Trump’s sentence, the judge could take into account his numerous violations of the gag order — which prompted Merchan to threaten him with prison time if the violations continued — and his lack of demonstrated remorse or respect for the justice system. Throughout the trial, Trump referred to Merchan as “adversarial” and “corrupt” and the case itself as a “sham.”
“In New York, a 78-year-old defendant, a first-time offender, committed a non-violent offense and otherwise has an excellent record — in some ways it’s extraordinary to see an ex-president to be. in the world, there would be no chance of a prison sentence,” Coffee said. “They can use probation, they can use fines. But many judges may feel that you have to show that no one is above the law, and that even the future president should get a taste of prison.”
Even if Merchan orders Trump to serve a prison sentence, the sentence could be delayed until his appeal is completed.
“In other cases, if you don’t have someone running for the White House, it would be more appropriate or acceptable to immediately put them in jail,” Coffee said. “You could certainly put special conditions on what he could do, or put him under house arrest, but I think we should let Donald Trump run around and campaign until we get to the actual election.”
The possible impact of the conviction on Trump’s polls and support
Trump has predicted that a conviction in this trial could boost his poll numbers.
“Even if I am convicted, I think it will have absolutely no impact. It could drive up the numbers, but we don’t want that. We want to get a fair judgment,” Trump said. told CBS Pittsburgh in an interview earlier this month.
Trump’s support among his Republican base has been remarkably resilient in light of his various criminal cases. In the months after his four indictments last year, Trump maintained his commanding lead in the Republican primaries, clinching the nomination despite the dozens of criminal charges he faced.
Many Trump supporters CBS News has interviewed since the trial began have said a guilty verdict won’t change how they vote in November, adopting the former president’s grievances as their own.
“Stormy Daniels is already rated and everything. It’s kind of serendipitous,” Michigan resident Lori Beyer said at a recent rally in Freeland, Michigan, adding that she would vote for Trump regardless of conviction. “As far as I’m concerned, I don’t think this will have an impact.”
Whether a conviction will change the minds of voters not committed to the former president remains to be seen. A recent one CBS News poll found that the majority of Americans believed Trump is “certainly or probably” guilty of the charges he faced in New York. The vast majority of Democrats – 93% – believed Trump was guilty, while 78% of Republicans said he was not. Independents were divided, with 53% believing he was guilty and 47% saying he was not.
Opinions on whether Trump was guilty or not were already highly partisan, said Kabir Khanna, deputy director of elections and data analytics for CBS News. Most people who believed Trump was guilty also believed the jury would convict him, and vice versa.
Additionally, Khanna said people who closely followed the trial were the most polarized in their views.
“Together, these factors could blunt the impact of the verdict on the views of an already divided public,” Khanna said. “Some voters may be swayed by the news, but I don’t expect any major change.”
Other polls support that idea. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released Thursday found that 67% of registered voters nationwide said a conviction of Trump would make no difference in how they vote. Among independents, only 11% said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
The conviction also gives the Biden campaign a potentially powerful new weapon in their arsenal: the ability to brand Trump as a convicted felon. Mr. Biden remained largely silent on the Trump trial while it was ongoing, but NBC News reported last week that he planned to become more aggressive about Trump’s legal troubles after the trial concluded, while acknowledging that Trump was on the ballot would come, no matter how his voice turned out. lawsuits took place.
Trump has used the trial to boost his fundraising and will likely try to capitalize on the conviction. The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee saw an influx of donations after jury selection began, with the two entities raising $76 million in April. His campaign had about $50 million cash on hand in early May as he prepared to return to campaigning after the trial.
The former president repeatedly used developments in the trial to raise money, including when he was charged with contempt for violating the gag order against him.
“I’d get arrested A MILLION TIMES before I let those filthy dogs get their hands on you,” read a typical fundraising appeal.
Trump’s other criminal cases
The New York case may be Trump’s only one four criminal charges to reach a conclusion before voters cast their ballots in the fall, giving the guilty verdict added weight.
The two federal cases brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith remain in limbo.
In Washington DC, Trump is facing charges related to his actions to cling to power after the 2016 election. Trump has argued that he is immune from prosecution, and the Supreme Court is currently weighing his claim.
The Supreme Court heard arguments in the immunity dispute on April 26 and is expected to decide the case before the end of the court’s term, likely in June. If the case is allowed to proceed, it is unlikely the court will schedule the trial before November. If the judge sides with Trump and deems him immune from prosecution, the charges will be dropped.
In Florida, Trump faces federal charges stemming from his retention of classified documents after leaving the White House. Judge Aileen Cannon, who was appointed by Trump, postponed the trial indefinitely. She ruled in early May that choosing a date for trial would be “imprudent and inconsistent with the court’s duty to fully and fairly consider numerous outstanding pretrial motions.” These motions include Trump’s attempts to dismiss the case altogether, as well as issues related to what classified information could be revealed at trial.
In the third case still open, Trump faces state charges related to the 2020 election in Fulton County, Georgia. The trial in that case has also been put on hold as Trump tries to have District Attorney Fani Willis removed from the case. The Georgian Court of Appeals recently granted Trump’s appeal against a decision that would have allowed her to stay, temporarily halting the trial.
Trump’s two federal cases could largely end up in voters’ hands if they are not resolved by November, a fact that increases his personal stake in the outcome. If he wins and returns to the White House in January 2025, Trump could order the Justice Department to drop the charges altogether.
Trump has pleaded not guilty in all criminal cases against him.
