BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — When Hungary takes the helm of the European Union on July 1, the same thing will be on the minds of many politicians in Brussels: Will populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán use his role to cement his reputation as the bloc’s biggest disruptor?
Orbán appears to have taken advantage of opportunities in recent years to block, water down or delay important EU decisions. In doing so, he systematically goes against the will of most other leaders on issues such as the war in Ukraine, relations with Russia and China and efforts to defend democracy and the rule of law.
His public opposition to the EU’s policies and positions has long frustrated his partners in the bloc and pushed him to the margins of the continent’s mainstream. The Hungarian motto for his presidency – Make Europe Great Again – raised eyebrows due to its similarity to former US President Donald Trump’s famous slogan.
The EU presidency rotates between member states and while the position carries little real power, it does give countries the opportunity to put their priorities high on the European agenda.
Now that Hungary is part of the 27-nation bloc for the next six months, it is likely to continue its anti-EU rhetoric, said Dorka Takácsy, a researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy.
But the timeline of his presidency – starting with a long summer break and a transition period for the formation of a new European Parliament and executive commission – will give Budapest few opportunities to significantly derail the bloc’s priorities, she said.
“These six months are not that long in total, which means that… Hungary cannot potentially do much damage, even according to the critics,” Takácsy said.
As Hungary’s takeover loomed, leaders in Brussels rushed to implement key policy decisions while Belgium was still at the helm. For example, the EU started accession talks with candidate member states Ukraine and Moldova on Tuesday.
Orbán has loudly opposed Ukraine’s candidacy and threatened to block it. His government has also blocked EU efforts to provide Ukraine with much-needed financing.
But now that Ukraine’s accession process is already underway, Takácsy says, the only thing Hungary can do now under his presidency is to delay further steps towards EU membership, a process that is likely to take many years in any scenario.
“All the meaningful steps on the European side regarding Ukraine have already been taken,” she said. “(A Hungarian) delay is already calculated by most European leaders and is being considered as if it is something that is highly likely to happen.”
Orbán has long been accused of dismantling democratic institutions and violating EU norms on the rule of law, leading the bloc’s legislature to call in May for the presidency to be taken out of Hungary’s hands entirely.
In a resolution, the European Parliament argued that the democratic shortcomings raise questions about “how Hungary can credibly fulfil this task in 2024”. Two years ago, the European Commission froze billions of euros in funds for Budapest amid concerns about a backsliding on democracy by the government.
But some Hungarian officials have stressed that they plan to act constructively during their presidency. Last week, Hungarian EU Affairs Minister János Bóka told reporters that “we will be honest brokers, loyally cooperating with all member states and institutions.”
“Performing the functions of the presidency is our duty, but above all we see it as an opportunity,” Bóka said. “At the beginning of the new institutional cycle, we can start a debate and set the agenda for issues that are important to us.”
One of the issues that Hungary is prioritizing in its seven-point program is EU enlargement in the Western Balkans for countries such as Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania through a merit-based procedure.
Budapest has also pledged to strengthen the EU’s external borders, fight illegal immigration and tackle “demographic challenges” related to Europe’s aging population. These are two priorities that reflect Orbán’s image as a staunch opponent of immigration and defender of family values.
But after years of campaigns portraying the EU as imposing undesirable policies on Hungary (Orbán has repeatedly compared the bloc’s membership to more than four decades of Soviet occupation of his country), he may find it difficult to maintain goodwill. among its EU partners.
“The Hungarian government has used Brussels’ image as a punching bag,” Takácsy said. “Now it is somewhat difficult to communicate that in these short six months we are in fact the Brussels against which Hungary is waging war and freedom struggle.”
Offering some words of advice for Orbán before Hungary takes up his role, Belgium’s prime minister said this position “does not mean you are the boss of Europe.”
“The presidency means that you are the one who has to make the compromise,” Alexander De Croo told journalists in Brussels on Thursday. “Being in the position where you have to make the compromise is an interesting position to be in at least once in your life, so I can definitely recommend it to Mr. Orbán.”
