Welcome to the online version of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, we report Republicans’ mixed reaction to a Delaware jury finding Hunter Biden guilty of federal gun charges. Additionally, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki analyzes the shifts among key demographic groups in the final 2024 polls.
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Hunter BidenThe guilty verdict undermines a core Trump message
By Jonathan Allen, Allan Smith and Katherine Doyle
Former President Donald Trump’s argument about the ‘weaponization’ of the legal system just crashed into a Delaware jury’s conviction President Joe Biden‘s son Hunter.
The result, some Republicans say, is a major blow to one of Trump’s favorite talking points — and a boost to Biden’s argument that he respects the rule of law.
“Hunter Biden’s conviction certainly weakens the argument,” said Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor who supports Trump and believes he should focus on the economy rather than lawsuits. “For me, the justice system works.”
The younger Biden, 54, was found guilty Tuesday of three charges related to his illegal purchase of a gun while taking narcotics. The elder Biden was a strong supporter of the so-called Brady Bill, which made it a crime for addicts to buy guns, and it was a special prosecutor under his Justice Department who prosecuted his son.
Last month, Trump was convicted by a Manhattan jury on 34 counts related to falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments to a pornographic film actress. He is charged in federal court with keeping classified documents. And in separate cases in Georgia and at the federal level, he has been indicted on charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
He has routinely accused Biden — without evidence — of leading a multi-jurisdictional legal campaign to remove him from the political battlefield through criminal trials. But some Republicans say it will be difficult to convince voters that Biden has turned the justice system into a weapon now that his own son has been beaten.
That dynamic seemed to create a confusing complication for Republicans, who splintered in their responses to the Hunter Biden verdict.
Kash Patel, a former Defense Department official and Trump’s national security adviser, called it “a rare example of constitutional justice.” But Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt called Tuesday’s outcome “nothing more than a distraction” from what she said are the “real crimes” committed by Biden and his family.
And Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida effectively yawned, posting on X: “Hunter Biden’s gun conviction is pretty stupid.”
Read more →
Are the demographic shifts in the 2024 polls a harbinger or a red herring?
By Steve Kornacki
The demographic shifts between the 2020 election and the current polls of the 2024 race have been consistent and clear. Trump has gained among non-white voters, while the movement among white voters has been minimal — resulting in the near-parity with Biden we now see in the national polling averages.
The debate is about whether these figures are a harbinger of the November elections – or a diversion.
One way to approach this is to look back at the 2020 Biden-Trump race: what demographic splits did polls show at the same point – mid-June – and how do they compare to the actual outcome? Look:
As you can see, Trump performed even more strongly among one of his core groups – white voters without a college degree – than the polls showed. And the same was true for Biden with one of his core groups, black voters. It appears that each candidate benefited from a “homecoming” effect, with their base solidifying once election day arrived.
It is also striking that polls at this point in 2020 already pointed to gains for Trump among Latino voters. For him, that 24-point deficit actually represented a double-digit improvement over the 2016 election result – and that turned out to be no mirage on Election Day.
The biggest miss on display here is among seniors, with polls at this point four years ago putting Biden ahead of Trump. This suggested a major shift from 2016, when Trump easily won voters over 65, and led to extensive reporting on possible reasons for Trump’s decline. But that lead over Biden disappeared in the election, with Trump trailing seniors by just a few points compared to 2016.
Now let’s compare these 2020 numbers to what the polls are showing now:
If 2020 is any guide, there is plenty of room for Biden to consolidate black support and boost his margin. The problem for him is that his starting point – currently a 55-point lead – is lower than it was in 2020. Equally troubling for Biden is that the polls are once again pointing to significant Trump gains over Latino voters, something that has held four years ago.
The concern from Trump’s point of view would be the possibility that he fails to make any gains (or worse, loses ground) among white voters, who make up more than two-thirds of the electorate. Even a marginal improvement by Biden here could blunt the impact of any non-white Trump gains.
And just like last time, seniors represent a crucial mystery. Just like four years ago, opinion polls point to significant gains for Biden. Will they actually fall out this time?
That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have any feedback – like it or not – please email us at politicsnieuwsbrief@nbcuni.com
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
